This is how the alt treasury company scheme works :

> Company ABC trades on Nasdaq at $10M mcap, with a share price of $10
> The company "raises" $100M from investors/VCs at its current $10 mkt price
> These investors hold almost all of the company as a consequence
> The company acquires $100M of an altcoin to become a treasury company (most scammy scenario is when the investors are the ones "selling" their locked tokens to the company)
> mNAV is close to 1x when this deal is done privately
> The deal is announced publicly
> Retail can start aping into the shares of this company
> The share price quickly goes from $10 to $30 because of the announcement
> All early investors are sitting in a risk-free entry at $10 (risk-free because it's almost backed 1-to-1 by the altcoin treasury)
> The next wave of retail starts buying at $30 minimum, ie 3x mNAV+
> 3 months later, the shares of the initial investors are unlocked, and the most mercenary ones will dump ruthlessly, and repeat the scheme with as many companies as possible

Some people have understood that it's a guaranteed-profit loop that they can rinse and repeat as long as the market still pumps the new altcoin treasury names.

There are a lot of opportunities in the crypto treasury plays but you must be aware of this dynamic going on against you if you are the retail that does not have access to the private deals. Also be aware that this scheme can be used to get rid of locked altcoins in some cases.

This is the largest move up we've had on ETHBTC since the Merge in September 2022

One of the main reasons for me to remain bullish is to think about how I would feel if I was shorting alts here

I would be underwater and sweating

That $117k level is heavily defended on $BTC

I'd like to see a higher high + higher low on LTF now

The 45k BTC are still sitting in Galaxy Digital wallets and the stack is not decreasing, not sure if these will have to be sold or not

Risk-on szn should not be over yet

On this dip, does it feel like people are scared and looking to reduce their risk, or are they boldly "buying the dip in a bull run" ?

I'd say the former

Which is better to see if you have a bullish bias

Crypto-natives are looking to "de-risk heavily once the market gets too hot"

Bitcoiners are looking to accumulate as much BTC as they can at any price

There are virgin assets and there are chad assets, choose wisely

A treasury company on $BTC is a clever way to outperform BTC

A treasury company on an altcoin is a way to make short-term gains with a very high risk of the vehicle going to zero in the long run

How to blow up 101 :

Holding onto a losing short.

INCREDIBLY dangerous

Your brain will block you from cutting it once the negative uPnL gets large enough

And that's where the real trouble begins...

Because the size of your losing short is increasing as you are already deeply underwater

Truly a recipe for disaster

And a pair trade can lead to this outcome if the short leg goes very wrong

Always favor survival over anything else, anon 🙏

The people who were convinced that the mNAV premium of $MSTR should converge to 1 after the ETFs launch fundamentally misunderstand how MSTR works

Funnily enough, after a 3x outperformance by MSTR over $BTC, they are still making the exact same mistake, and assuring you that the premium will collapse

You've been absolutely dead wrong for one and a half year, but surely you are just one the verge of being proven right

Saylor is planning to raise $500M on his new $STRC preferred share, it will probably be upsized to $1bn

Which will be funneled into BTC

Saylor can keep clipping $500M worth of BTC a week for a very long time without even needing $MSTR to pump hard

As for the catch-up trade, maybe $HOME and $RESOLV longs could cook now too ?

(As people try to repeat the trade on other coins that got listed around the same time, which means they are tied together in their heads)

Shorting new coins is a double-edged sword

Down only when there is zero bid in a risk-off market

But they can pump very violently once the market goes risk-on

$SPK
$SAHARA
$NEWT
$SOPH
$HOME
$RESOLV
$HUMA
$C
$M
$LA

There are a lot of new tickers

The more stupidity you see on coins, the more cautious you must become

Still bullish but monitoring the situation

Saylor is basically issuing a 9% APR stablecoin with monthly payments

$STRC is an extremely attractive product