The more stupidity you see on coins, the more cautious you must become

Still bullish but monitoring the situation

Saylor is basically issuing a 9% APR stablecoin with monthly payments

$STRC is an extremely attractive product

Alts are still very brutal things to trade

2 weeks of uptrend and half of the move is retraced in like one day on OTHERS/BTC

Do I think we should go up again ? Yes, I do

Do I have the same level of conviction than on my $BTC long ? Absolutely not

The problem with $ETH is that this trade is so momentum-driven that we can't afford to lose the momentum for too long, or the whole reflexivity dies

And we're already at almost $4k, which has basically been overheated territory for four years

In the same time, with so much energy funneled into ETH, I don't think it disappears immediately after just 2 weeks.

And I don't think the treasury companies trade is over, which implies more inflows for ETH and alts.

$1bn worth of $ETH bought by $BMNR in a week

Massive

It just looks very unlikely to me that the ETH treasury companies mania can only last 2 weeks

They should clearly still be able to deploy more, which will push $ETH price higher

One way to look at it is that they haven't started issuing convertible bonds

So close to zero leverage involved

A treasury company that does not issue CBs or fixed income instruments is basically a crippled treasury company, so it seems inevitable that they will do it

Galaxy Digital has sent 27k $BTC to exchanges over the past 14 hours and is still holding 18.5k BTC

Down to 13.5k BTC in Galaxy wallets

I have added to my $BTC long

I would not be shocked if $BTC had a final wick below these local lows but right now is already good enough to add

I think we should be trading higher soon.

Saylor is going to get $2.5bn of buying power in a few days

Past 2 weeks in crypto :

- ATH break on $BTC, it went immediately from $112k to $123k in 3 days. Ranging since then, as the momentum rotated into ETH+alts. Dumped below $115k today as a result of the 80k BTC whale selling

- $ETH on fire thanks to the ETH treasury companies + ETFs buying enormous quantities. $2500 -> $3800 in two weeks. ETHBTC to 0.032. Heavy outperformance of alts vs BTC as a consequence of ETH pumping. Some $ETH beta have been top performers : $ENA $CRV $CVX $FXS

- Dino coins strong : $XRP to new $3.6+ highs. $XLM $HBAR $ADA all pumped hard.

- Memes : $DOGE $SPX $FLOKI $FARTCOIN outperformance. Largest gains were on $PENGU (12x), which also pumped $DOOD and $ANIME (NFT coins).

- Extremely underwhelming PA on $PUMP since TGE. Topped below $7 and has been endlessly bleeding to $2.3

- Two new coins have been very strong performers : $ZORA (8x) and $SPK (6x). $NEWT and $SAHARA also squeezed up

It doesn't change the fact that Saylor will get $2.5bn to buy $BTC with, but I don't like that the offering is priced at $90.

$STRC does have a target price at $100, so any rational investor should buy this IPO to get a "free" 11% gain, which means the upsizing is not indicative of "true" demand at $100 $STRC

High FDV but the supply is heavily controlled imo

I wouldn’t short this

$IP

Strongest looking memes :

$SPX
$BONK
$PENGU

It was a messy bottom but played out as expected

I don't want to see it retested though...

It was the top, and a good short

I don't have any view on $SPK anymore, this trade is done imo

The current state of $ETH in terms of inflows is so much STRONGER than on the 3 previous times it traded at $3700 over the past 18 months that I can't expect it to top here

"Treasury company buyers are accepting to buy $1 of $BTC for $2, they are dumb !"

No, they are buying $1 of BTC + 1$ of additional BTC that they think the company will be able to add accretively on their balance sheet

It's the same idea as valuing a company on its future cash flows