The current state of $ETH in terms of inflows is so much STRONGER than on the 3 previous times it traded at $3700 over the past 18 months that I can't expect it to top here

"Treasury company buyers are accepting to buy $1 of $BTC for $2, they are dumb !"

No, they are buying $1 of BTC + 1$ of additional BTC that they think the company will be able to add accretively on their balance sheet

It's the same idea as valuing a company on its future cash flows

Life being easy when you're long $ETH is truly a new paradigm

Reflexivity :

You are more likely to find a 2-3x out of the coins that are already up 10x than out of the rest of the market

$ZORA is a prime example

The setup looks good for strength continuation in the crypto market

No comfortable entry given on $ETH

$MCVT is going to be the $SUI treasury company

They are raising $450M, but we don’t know how much of that will go into buying liquid $SUI on the open mkt vs how much will be used to acquire locked tokens from the foundation

A full-stack $BTC treasury company needs 2 legs :

- Equity = monetizing the mNAV premium

- Debt = monetizing the difference between BTC's CAGR and the borrowing cost

Using both legs in tandem is what rationally justifies the company trading at a premium, even over the medium term.

An altcoin treasury company is a crippled vehicle that only uses the first leg (equity) and should trend to 1x mNAV over time.

The two assets that are getting tradfi flows are $BTC and $ETH

So I am long both of them

TOM LEE'S BITMINE, THE LARGEST ETHEREUM TREASURY, ANNOUNCES THEY WILL BE BUYING BACK UP TO $1B OF THEIR STOCK

🔗 velo.xyz

This does not mean : "We plan to buyback $1bn worth of shares"

It most likely means : "We now theoretically have the RIGHT to buy back up to $1bn worth of shares. But this is something we will do only if we trade at a large discount to NAV. Which is not our goal, ideally"

Bitmine bought 60k $ETH in 4 days, SharpLink bought 80k ETH in a week

Tradfi ignored $ETH for more than a year after the ETF launch and decided one day to suddenly go all in

Long-form about treasury companies :

https://x.com/thedefivillain/status/1950206375524532607

Extreme weakness from altcoins right now

Don't forget this, you wan't to be trading with the flows

This picture summarizes how a BTC treasury company works and why it's rational to buy shares at a premium to NAV.

A full-stack treasury company relies on 2 legs, both equity and leverage, and you need a sufficient CAGR on the underlying (BTC) for it to work.

Altcoin treasury companies will most likely not use the debt leg because the long-term CAGR of the underlying might not even be positive. This makes them crippled vehicles with an mNAV that will trend towards 1 (or even less).

The new preferred share of Saylor, $STRC had an IPO price of $90, is currently trading at $94, and is supposed to float around $100

"Free" 6% arb ? I'd say so :)

As a bull, this strong dalai post FOMC is great to see

But the overall momentum has been damaged, with BTC ranging and making lower highs since $123k, as well as OTHERS/BTC being stopped in its run 10 days ago

The truly risk-on conditions only lasted 2 weeks

I don't think it makes as much sense to be blindly long altcoins and to expect stupid stuff now

It looks more and more like the longs to hold are $BTC and $ETH, as they are the ones getting tradfi inflows

The altcoins will obviously do better in these conditions than when ETH was weak and when long BTC / short alts was a great trade.

But on a risk-adjusted basis, ETH is probably a much better long than the vast majority of alts. (I like BTC even more but I am long both.) I have reopened a small basket of altcoin shorts to hedge part of the long positioning.

I am still absolutely certain that BTC is going much higher this year.

If long $ARB / short $ETH looks like that as an "ETH beta" altcoin during a giga run from ETH... then most alts will keep underperforming ETH

You don't get paid enough for the risk you take on altcoins, except a selected few

$MSTR is going to post gigantic earnings tonight

Maybe a nothingburger, but it's potentially a great catalyst

Earnings call tonight too

In barely a year Metaplanet went from a struggling micro-cap hotel operator to the largest non-US corporate BTC holder, multiplying its share price by ≈30x, its market-cap by ≈200x, and amassing over $2 billion in Bitcoin.

They won't be stopping here, and their BTC purchases have now become significant.

There will be a similar leading company in every jurisdiction where there is enough capital.

- Capital B $ALCPB and/or Sequans $SQNS in Europe
- The Smarter Web Company $SWC in the UK
- Hong Kong ? Canada ? South America ?

And obviously there are some serious BTC treasury companies in the US that will be buying in size too (on top of MSTR...) : $XXI already holds $4Bn+, $BSTR will hold $3bn too.

All of the largest corporate holders of BTC will be full-stack BTC treasury companies.
Right now, there are only 5 of these among the top 20.

We have still so much room to grow.

If you think the BTC treasury company mania is over, you are most likely wrong.

$FARTCOIN is showing extreme weakness right now

But this FARTCOIN/WIF ratio should trade significantly higher than 1 at some point

It could take a while though