Irrespective of your view on $MSTR, it’s useful to see how the market behaves when Saylor isn’t buying, AND when no one expects him to.

Good stress test for $BTC.

Overall it's obviously healthier for BTC if we don't have to rely on one single buyer to push it

I remember when $SBET launched, I was debating with a friend whether buying SBET was a better deal than outright ETH

I was pretty confident that buying SBET there was potentially dangerous because the mNAV was 6x

- If you had bought $ETH on that day, you would be up 80% today
- But if you had bought $SBET on that day, you would still be down between -40% and -60%

That being said, so many unpredictable and irrational things happened in between :

- $SBET first went up 3x to touch $120, and probably traded close to 20x mNAV at some point

- It then went down -73% when the euphoria settled down, BEFORE dumping another -75% in one hour when they announced that early investors shares were unlocked

- Then it traded flat around $10 at a very attractive mNAV for almost 3 weeks

- And then pumped almost 5x in 2 weeks, as $ETH also began its run to $4800

- SBET is now down -50% from its local top, while $ETH is up +25% in the same timeframe

$SBET (and treasury companies in general) can go very quickly from OVER-VALUED to UNDER-VALUED, and people will want to buy it at the tops and sell it at the bottoms.

The mNAV of these companies can very well go close to 1 and then bounce hard, you shouldn't over-index on the most recent PA because this might be very misleading.

Hold your convictions loosely on these instruments

For people worried about Saylor accumulating too much BTC, the recent guidance about the 2.5x mNAV (I am not talking about today's update here) is good news because it means he will focus on increasing BTC per share while slowing down the actual amount of BTC he purchases.

- Slower increase of the concentration of supply in Saylor's hands
- More leverage to justify mNAV
- Less buying pressure for BTC in $ terms

Crypto gaming has been such an awful sector since the previous bull market in terms of performance

You can pretty much always short these coins

Free trade back to par ($100) once again

$STRC

Strongest large caps on this dip are $BNB and $TRX

I have neglected these two for too long, and yet they are so resistant to the downside on basically every dump

$M - $2.2bn FDV
$PROVE - $1.2bn FDV
$SAHARA - $900M FDV
$ERA - $850M FDV
$NXPC - $800M FDV
$SIGN - $700M FDV

I don't know a lot of people trading these coins

All of them are probably going to trade -50% lower this year, good targets for shorts

You should have a list of 10-15 coins that are your favorite shorts

Each time you want to short BTC or ETH, short this basket instead

You are pretty much guaranteed to make more money that way

(More money if you are right on the short thesis obviously. But probably also less losses if you are wrong. It is just not very convenient to trade 15 coins instead of just one.)

The only thing $ETH needed to pump this cycle was a credible, elite TradFi KOL who could bullpost on CNBC

Never underestimate the power of a leading KoL for your asset

The examples of this phenomenon in crypto are infinite

Several coins worth having in your watchlist because of their short-term strength :

$LINK
$AERO
$BIO
$MNT
$BNB
$PENDLE
$SCR

Having limit buy orders on the strong coins is a great strategy in terms of r/r

I have yet to find a crypto native who predicted that tradfi would go crazy over $ETH during the summer and buy $20bn+ worth of it in 2 months

"Slow summer", "seasonality", "anal August", "$ETH will never trade above $2500 again"...

The sentiment of CT is becoming less and less relevant over time for price moves

If boomers want to buy more $ETH, it will keep going up, simple as that

Alts holding up better than both $BTC and $ETH on this market weakness

Hopefully this is bottom frontrunning behaviour

It's something we see quite often

Here is the June 22 bottom for example

Wait $ETH is like 0.7% away from new ATH

As someone who doesn’t like trading macro events at all, I thought the key takeaway going into Jackson Hole was that everyone seemed already heavily hedged.

So unless he came out really hawkish, upside was the most likely expectation.

Give us a dovish tone and we giga-shoot straight up ?

I dunno, I am just rationalizing after the event ofc

Narrator : boomers wanted to buy more $ETH.

Happy ETH ATH to those who celebrate!

$WLFI at $40bn FDV in pre-market on Binance lmao

It will trade much lower in one year

But they will absolutely PvP the shorts after TGE, the float will be very low

(Illustrated risk : TRUMP was looking like a decent short when it was stalling around $30bn...)

If they squeeze this 2x post TGE, it will be an absolutely goated short just like TRUMP was

They seem to be doing absolutely everything to push it to the max at launch because they know it will be down only after that

$WLFI down -40% in a day

Maybe the idea that it was low float and that they would crime it up post launch was too consensus

And you just had to blindly short a stupidly high FDV

Let's wait and see, I took an ant-sized short that I covered, and I am not in a WLFI trade at this very moment.

$BIO is in its SPKization process

It could pull another +50%/+100% in a day from here, and that's where you can short it