Saylor and Phong are getting more and more open to the idea of selling $BTC to pay for the dividends in case the mNAV drops meaningfully below 1x

I think it's the correct path to mentally prepare the market to this likelihood, as well as letting people know that the common stock MSTR will be defended in that way

Let me remind you that if they were to fund ALL the dividends over one year by selling BTC, that would represent $750M additional sell pressure on BTC in one year.

That's like one day of great BTC ETF inflows. Peanuts in terms of actual sell pressure.
Even if of course it would have a psychological impact that is much harder to estimate

https://x.com/saylor/status/1994521308718403911

If you skim through altcoin charts

We are in deep bear market territory lmao

It looks like people don't even believe that the Sonnet $HYPE purchases are going to come anymore?

The vote is supposed to be tomorrow and last time it pumped +10% as a frontrunning trade

> Be a $TIA holder
> See your coin go down -70%
> Then another -70%
> Then another -70%
> And you main KoL has now pivoted to bear porn

Saylor news:

$1.4bn worth of $MSTR sold to have a USD reserve ready to cover 2 years of dividend payments

Excellent idea

They definitely should have done that a few months ago when the mNAV was higher, but at least now the whole "how does he pay the divs" narrative is neutralized for some time

Saylor sold enough $MSTR shares in one week to cover for almost 2 years worth of pref dividends and the MSTR/IBIT ratio is almost flat on the week

People under-estimate the importance of having an extremely liquid stock

lmaooo

Saylor is 100% confirming that they would be ready to sell $BTC to cover for dividends if that's their only option

He doesn't want the "we will never sell BTC" narrative to hurt their optionality

https://x.com/saylor/status/1995479071518577116

What $MSTR did yesterday (creating a USD reserve) was precisely to *avoid* selling $BTC for at least 20 months

At the same time, they also decided to get rid of the "we will never sell our BTC" narrative because that hurts their optionality.

People interpreted it as "they are going to sell their BTC" but there's a clear difference between announcing that they can consider it, and actually doing it. Creating the USD reserve is evidence that they will try hard not to sell BTC.

Let me also remind you once again that IF they had to sell BTC to pay for dividends...

1/ We would know exactly how much they sell because we know the cost of dividends in real time

2/ It would be a ridiculously low amount of actual sell pressure, right now it's less than $800M per year (!)

Instead of seeing that the "how will they fund dividends?" narrative is mostly retarded given that they covered 20+ months of dividends by selling MSTR during two weeks, people are now doubling down and interpreting yesterday's move as the beginning of the end, which couldn't be further from the truth in my opinion.

As I've said yesterday, I don't think "Saylor did nothing wrong", because they definitely should have created this USD reserve much earlier when the mNAV was higher instead of systematically aping all cash into BTC... but I also think that these mistakes are not bad enough to make the current MSTR structure a failure.

Even if $PIPPIN is up 10x and could very well top here, this looks risky to short at negative funding and with zero sign of climax squeeze

Time to take profits for the cycle and run away right now

Nothing more scary than roundtripping all these gains

A potential bear market is too dangerous

A lot of people seem to think that $MSTR selling $BTC would be a disastrous narrative violation that would have irreversible consequences.

I don't agree with this, because "not selling BTC" has never been the North Star for MSTR.

The North Star for MSTR has always been increasing BTC-per-share ratio, and "not selling BTC" was mostly the cherry on the top, a great marketing gimmick, but never the absolute top priority.

Every MSTR shareholder that has a basic understanding of the structure knows that too. A long-term shareholder doesn't invest in MSTR because it wants to invest in a company that never sells its BTC, but because it wants to outperform BTC in the long-run.

I obviously think it's much better if they don't have to sell BTC, but I also think it's possible to keep increasing the BTC-per-share ratio *even* if they have to sell small amounts of BTC at some point.

As a reminder, if they did fund dividends ONLY by selling BTC, that would currently equate to less than $70M worth of BTC sold per month. Basically zero impact in the orderbook (the "bad optics" second order effect would naturally be larger than these actual flows).

One thing to not forget is the convertible bonds too (that have to be paid back in USD instead of shares if MSTR trades below the strike price), but the first put date is September 2027... so I think we should be fine by then.

How is $SONN going to make sure that they don’t print a local top on $HYPE just like every altcoin DAT?

https://x.com/thedefivillain/status/1996176519056757041

I don't think people have realized that Strategy basically neutralized the main talking point of $MSTR bears this week

One year spent feeling smart about the "How will they pay the dividends?" narrative just to realize that Saylor funded 21 months worth of divs in 8 days

And I haven't seen a single soul suggesting the idea that "MSTR must be selling the common because it's so weak this week". So not only were they able to fund almost 2 years of dividends in two weeks, but they were also able to do it in a way that wasn't even noticeable in the price.

The best bearish argument against MSTR is and will always be BTC price, but very few of the MSTR bears have a BTC price prediction that is bearish enough to justify MSTR struggling massively...

$PIPPIN shorts casually bleeding 10% of their position every day to hold it, and price looks anything but... bothered

Good luck out there

Tom Lee still being able to buy $200M-$300M worth of $ETH a week is pretty crazy

Can you believe $BTC $126k ATH was just 2 months ago