Here is the "low float new coin" premium illustrated on FDV
At some point, this will mean revert, but it can take some time
At some point, this will mean revert, but it can take some time
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You can buy $POPCAT on-chain and short it on Bybit perps, there's around 3% difference between the 2 prices and you will be paid funding if this takes time to converge.
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Crypto Narratives
Long $DOGE / Short $SHIB I have been in this trade way too early and my SHIB "memecoin hedge short" has an an absolutely awful uPnL, but you can now get a GREAT entry on this SHIB is now very close from flipping DOGE, so you can put size on this trade as…
It was a great entry to long $DOGE / short $SHIB
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Crypto Narratives
Recap of the week article : https://cryptonarratives.substack.com/p/narratives-of-the-week-march-28
Current narratives :
- BlackRock new tokenized fund ignited the RWA narrative : $ONDO has been leading it, but the whole sector pumped. $TOKEN $POLYX $DUSK $RSR
- Base season started post EIP-4844 : the leading DEX $AERO is up 8x in a month. Other major coins include $DEGEN (+500%) $TOSHI $BRETT $DOGINME...
- $DOGE is up +65% from its local bottom. $FLOKI and $WIF seem to be the best beta coins. Cat tokens are starting to spread too.
- $BCH up +60% from recent bottom, its halving is coming soon
- $FET $AGIX and $OCEAN are planning to merge into a new $ASI token
- New liquid restaking token $ETHFI is up +140% in 10 days
- BlackRock new tokenized fund ignited the RWA narrative : $ONDO has been leading it, but the whole sector pumped. $TOKEN $POLYX $DUSK $RSR
- Base season started post EIP-4844 : the leading DEX $AERO is up 8x in a month. Other major coins include $DEGEN (+500%) $TOSHI $BRETT $DOGINME...
- $DOGE is up +65% from its local bottom. $FLOKI and $WIF seem to be the best beta coins. Cat tokens are starting to spread too.
- $BCH up +60% from recent bottom, its halving is coming soon
- $FET $AGIX and $OCEAN are planning to merge into a new $ASI token
- New liquid restaking token $ETHFI is up +140% in 10 days
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My best trades in Q1 24 have been :
- Memecoins : $PEPE $WIF $DOGE $FLOKI (massive PnL
- AI coins : $FET $RNDR (mostly)
- Sizing up on $ETH from $2200
- $ONDO (submit to hyped RWA leader despite initial doubts)
- $MKR (slow cooker, low downside so it was possible to size up on perps for capital efficiency)
- $APT (thesis written on Twitter ; "unpumped coin" theory)
- $STX (BTC beta leader showing consistent strength)
- $PENDLE (EigenLayer beta + unstoppable coin)
My worst trade has not lead to a loss of money per se, but has been a massive opportunity cost : ETH beta coins. The devastating midcurve trade.
I also permanently hold a lot of short trades, as hedges for my longs. They are mostly weak coins that tend to underperform on the long run, so it is hard to evaluate the exact outcome of these trades.
They usually do underperform, but there will always be a time when some of them pump, so this is why I hold a basket with a lot of them.
The 2 shorts that have "gone bad" the most are $SHIB and $BCH. The uPnL is horrendous on SHIB but it makes sense since it's the hedge for other memecoins. Both are still open.
- Memecoins : $PEPE $WIF $DOGE $FLOKI (massive PnL
- AI coins : $FET $RNDR (mostly)
- Sizing up on $ETH from $2200
- $ONDO (submit to hyped RWA leader despite initial doubts)
- $MKR (slow cooker, low downside so it was possible to size up on perps for capital efficiency)
- $APT (thesis written on Twitter ; "unpumped coin" theory)
- $STX (BTC beta leader showing consistent strength)
- $PENDLE (EigenLayer beta + unstoppable coin)
My worst trade has not lead to a loss of money per se, but has been a massive opportunity cost : ETH beta coins. The devastating midcurve trade.
I also permanently hold a lot of short trades, as hedges for my longs. They are mostly weak coins that tend to underperform on the long run, so it is hard to evaluate the exact outcome of these trades.
They usually do underperform, but there will always be a time when some of them pump, so this is why I hold a basket with a lot of them.
The 2 shorts that have "gone bad" the most are $SHIB and $BCH. The uPnL is horrendous on SHIB but it makes sense since it's the hedge for other memecoins. Both are still open.
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Strong tokens with large mindshare by quarter :
Q2 2023 :
$PEPE (topped)
Q3 2023 :
$RLB (topped vs BTC)
$UNIBOT (topped)
Q4 2023 :
$SOL
$INJ (topped)
$TIA (topped)
$BONK (topped vs BTC)
$ORDI (topped vs BTC)
Q1 2024 :
Memecoins - $PEPE $WIF $FLOKI
AI - $FET $AGIX $RNDR
$ONDO
Soooo... was this the multi-month top for memecoins and AI ? 👀
I'd say no but it is rare for a "flavour of the month" narrative to not cool off after strong outperformance + plenty of attention.
Q2 2023 :
$PEPE (topped)
Q3 2023 :
$RLB (topped vs BTC)
$UNIBOT (topped)
Q4 2023 :
$SOL
$INJ (topped)
$TIA (topped)
$BONK (topped vs BTC)
$ORDI (topped vs BTC)
Q1 2024 :
Memecoins - $PEPE $WIF $FLOKI
AI - $FET $AGIX $RNDR
$ONDO
Soooo... was this the multi-month top for memecoins and AI ? 👀
I'd say no but it is rare for a "flavour of the month" narrative to not cool off after strong outperformance + plenty of attention.
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Crypto Narratives
Enjoy a journey into the past with this thread that reviews all the crypto narratives of 2023 : https://twitter.com/thedefivillain/status/1772718402622128205
Transformed the thread into a recap article :
https://cryptonarratives.substack.com/p/full-recap-of-the-crypto-narratives
https://cryptonarratives.substack.com/p/full-recap-of-the-crypto-narratives
Substack
Full recap of the crypto narratives of 2023
Month by month
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Crypto Narratives
Like most people in the market, I have been conditioned to buy every dip blindly during the past few weeks. Same for you, probably. The problem is that at some point one dip can get larger than the previous ones. Not saying that this will happen, but you…
Same opinion as here.
I am not doing much at the moment. 100% allocated in spot, and moderately net long on perps, but I will wait for lower (if it happens) to start bidding more meaningfully.
No worries to have, chop szn has started a few weeks ago, and it can continue for a few more weeks.
I am not doing much at the moment. 100% allocated in spot, and moderately net long on perps, but I will wait for lower (if it happens) to start bidding more meaningfully.
No worries to have, chop szn has started a few weeks ago, and it can continue for a few more weeks.
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As much as you want to think that 'FDV is a meme in a bull run', there is now close to $100bn added in locked tokens just for the 2024 new launches.
This becomes sell pressure that adds up months after month.
The 'dispersion' in performance we see on altcoins comes with no surprise when you factor in these billion dollar unlocks.
It is a net negative for the liquid traders that most of us are, since it means that money can flow into crypto without directly pumping the prices of the tokens that are on the market.
If your timeframe is higher than a few weeks, FDV is not a meme.
This becomes sell pressure that adds up months after month.
The 'dispersion' in performance we see on altcoins comes with no surprise when you factor in these billion dollar unlocks.
It is a net negative for the liquid traders that most of us are, since it means that money can flow into crypto without directly pumping the prices of the tokens that are on the market.
If your timeframe is higher than a few weeks, FDV is not a meme.
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Lots of narratives and things going on in March. Here is the detailed recap of the month :
https://cryptonarratives.substack.com/p/march-recap-narratives-best-performers
https://cryptonarratives.substack.com/p/march-recap-narratives-best-performers
Crypto Narratives
March recap : narratives, best-performers, and coins to watch
$BTC new ATH / Memecoins / Solana and Base seasons / RWA pump
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Some of the monthly gains we've seen in March have been wild :
$DEGEN : 50x
$POPCAT : 30x
$PEPECOIN : 13x
$WIF : +450%
$FLOKI : +365%
$TOKEN : +360%
$AERO : +350%
$JUP : +220%
$BOME : $3M → $1.5bn MC
$BODEN : $1M → $200M MC
$DEGEN : 50x
$POPCAT : 30x
$PEPECOIN : 13x
$WIF : +450%
$FLOKI : +365%
$TOKEN : +360%
$AERO : +350%
$JUP : +220%
$BOME : $3M → $1.5bn MC
$BODEN : $1M → $200M MC
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A very useful exercise you can do is to take some time at the end of the month to write down :
- how the coins reacted to the major events and catalysts
- the coins that ~10x'd and that were "easy to catch" in hindsight (try to catch these the next times)
- the coins that ~10x'd and that were NOT easy to catch (no regrets with these)
- any trade that looks "obvious" in hindsight and worked well
I will share an example of such a summary for March when I have the time.
- how the coins reacted to the major events and catalysts
- the coins that ~10x'd and that were "easy to catch" in hindsight (try to catch these the next times)
- the coins that ~10x'd and that were NOT easy to catch (no regrets with these)
- any trade that looks "obvious" in hindsight and worked well
I will share an example of such a summary for March when I have the time.
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What were the best trades to take in March ? What were obvious 10x opportunities lying on the floor ?
- Long RWA coins (especially the leader and ‘BlackRock proxy’ $ONDO, but also $TOKEN, etc) as soon as BlackRock announced the launch of their tokenized fund on Ethereum. The pump lasted one week and most coins pumped 2x-3x.
- Long AI coins in early March, because of the continued strength of the category, along with the existence of a new catalyst which was the Nvidia conference. Long $NEAR and $RNDR because their cofounders were speakers at the conference.
- Long $DOGE / short $SHIB as soon as SHIB market cap got very close to DOGE mc (in a 5% range).
- Long memecoins ( $PEPE $WIF $FLOKI $DOGE) because they were consistent top-performers, with high mindshare/MC ratio, and good r/r considering the upside ($50bn+ MC).
- Buy Base coins because everyone knows that Base is going to be a big thing… or long Base coins once you saw that there was a flow of degens going from Solana to Base : long the main DEX token ( $AERO ; +350%), or long the OG memecoin ( $TOSHI ; +320%), or long the Farcaster/SocialFi/Base proxy with large mindshare ( $DEGEN ; 50x) or long the new leading memecoin ( $BRETT ; 75x).
- Buy $BODEN as soon as it appeared on your timeline : leader of an entirely new meta with already several copycats launched despite a low MC + funny coin + MAGA already showed the desire of the market to buy political memes. Doable 5x-10x even if you were ‘late’.
- Buy $WIF as soon as GCR won the auction to buy the dogwifhat picture NFT. GCR is a legend that everybody wants to copytrade. +30% in 1h.
- Buy $DMT once you saw that $DEGEN wanted to launch an L3 while its price action is vertical. Catch +250% in one week. $DMT is one of the few other L3 coins that has mindshare.
- Long $VELO once you saw that $AERO was up +700% in less than a month. 3x in 3 days on $VELO. $AERO is basically $VELO on Base, with same team iirc.
Other trickier (imo) trades :
- Long $BOME because thick liquidity + hated pump + CEX listings in a day ?
- Long $SLERF because presale meta + funny meme + no sellers + great $10M burnt story ?
- Long $ETHFI because new coin that was the first LRT protocol and direct EigenLayer beta status ?
- Long $TON because of Telegram potential IPO and then $110M community rewards initiative announcement ?
- Long $BCH because of halving catalyst and strength against market ?
- Long $JUP because rounded bottom chart + best SOL beta while $SOL was going for new highs + new coin breaking out ?
- Long RWA coins (especially the leader and ‘BlackRock proxy’ $ONDO, but also $TOKEN, etc) as soon as BlackRock announced the launch of their tokenized fund on Ethereum. The pump lasted one week and most coins pumped 2x-3x.
- Long AI coins in early March, because of the continued strength of the category, along with the existence of a new catalyst which was the Nvidia conference. Long $NEAR and $RNDR because their cofounders were speakers at the conference.
- Long $DOGE / short $SHIB as soon as SHIB market cap got very close to DOGE mc (in a 5% range).
- Long memecoins ( $PEPE $WIF $FLOKI $DOGE) because they were consistent top-performers, with high mindshare/MC ratio, and good r/r considering the upside ($50bn+ MC).
- Buy Base coins because everyone knows that Base is going to be a big thing… or long Base coins once you saw that there was a flow of degens going from Solana to Base : long the main DEX token ( $AERO ; +350%), or long the OG memecoin ( $TOSHI ; +320%), or long the Farcaster/SocialFi/Base proxy with large mindshare ( $DEGEN ; 50x) or long the new leading memecoin ( $BRETT ; 75x).
- Buy $BODEN as soon as it appeared on your timeline : leader of an entirely new meta with already several copycats launched despite a low MC + funny coin + MAGA already showed the desire of the market to buy political memes. Doable 5x-10x even if you were ‘late’.
- Buy $WIF as soon as GCR won the auction to buy the dogwifhat picture NFT. GCR is a legend that everybody wants to copytrade. +30% in 1h.
- Buy $DMT once you saw that $DEGEN wanted to launch an L3 while its price action is vertical. Catch +250% in one week. $DMT is one of the few other L3 coins that has mindshare.
- Long $VELO once you saw that $AERO was up +700% in less than a month. 3x in 3 days on $VELO. $AERO is basically $VELO on Base, with same team iirc.
Other trickier (imo) trades :
- Long $BOME because thick liquidity + hated pump + CEX listings in a day ?
- Long $SLERF because presale meta + funny meme + no sellers + great $10M burnt story ?
- Long $ETHFI because new coin that was the first LRT protocol and direct EigenLayer beta status ?
- Long $TON because of Telegram potential IPO and then $110M community rewards initiative announcement ?
- Long $BCH because of halving catalyst and strength against market ?
- Long $JUP because rounded bottom chart + best SOL beta while $SOL was going for new highs + new coin breaking out ?
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When a coin reaches close to $20bn FDV, the r/r of your long dramatically decreases
Look at the local top FDV of a few s-tier coins :
$STRK : $26bn
$ARB : $24bn
$APT : $22bn
$TIA : $21bn
$SUI : $21bn
$OP : $21bn
Even the tops of $APE and $GMT back in 2022 were $26bn and $24bn
$JUP recent top was at... $18bn FDV !
Look at the local top FDV of a few s-tier coins :
$STRK : $26bn
$ARB : $24bn
$APT : $22bn
$TIA : $21bn
$SUI : $21bn
$OP : $21bn
Even the tops of $APE and $GMT back in 2022 were $26bn and $24bn
$JUP recent top was at... $18bn FDV !
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Crypto Narratives
When a coin reaches close to $20bn FDV, the r/r of your long dramatically decreases Look at the local top FDV of a few s-tier coins : $STRK : $26bn $ARB : $24bn $APT : $22bn $TIA : $21bn $SUI : $21bn $OP : $21bn Even the tops of $APE and $GMT back in 2022…
Now, a question is :
Will $ENA respect this ceiling ? It seems to be locally topping around there.
On the other hand :
- The mindshare/market cap ratio on Ethena looks very high (ie ENA could reprice higher)
- $ENA is constantly among the highest volume coins since its launch, probably the highest volume/MC ratio in all of top 100
- ENA is more or less alone in its category, so you can't really put a ceiling on its MC. It is not easy to find a comparable protocol, maybe $MKR ? Or if you want to dream big... $LUNA in 2021/2022 ? Which was a $30bn-$40bn market cap at top, but had a large 'L1 premium' though.
I have an entry on $ENA around $0.8 and TP'd around 25% of my position. Being early allows me to be loose with the trade, and I want to keep exposure to ENA in case it gets really big, which is possible.
However, I would not say it is an extremely appealing trade at this price.
Will $ENA respect this ceiling ? It seems to be locally topping around there.
On the other hand :
- The mindshare/market cap ratio on Ethena looks very high (ie ENA could reprice higher)
- $ENA is constantly among the highest volume coins since its launch, probably the highest volume/MC ratio in all of top 100
- ENA is more or less alone in its category, so you can't really put a ceiling on its MC. It is not easy to find a comparable protocol, maybe $MKR ? Or if you want to dream big... $LUNA in 2021/2022 ? Which was a $30bn-$40bn market cap at top, but had a large 'L1 premium' though.
I have an entry on $ENA around $0.8 and TP'd around 25% of my position. Being early allows me to be loose with the trade, and I want to keep exposure to ENA in case it gets really big, which is possible.
However, I would not say it is an extremely appealing trade at this price.
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