Go big or go home :

> Long BTC when the risk/reward ratio is good
> When you want to TP half, double down on your position
> Put the stop-loss at breakeven
> Double down on the dip, put the SL at BE
> Repeat the last step again

Your position is now 8X initial size, and you either make it big or lose nothing.

This is a (simplified) way to catch a big leverage long with low risk during the first leg of the bull run when BTC has small drawdowns ($10k -> $50k for the last bull).

Read this great thread by Intuitio to have a more detailed plan of "the big long" : https://twitter.com/IntuitioCapital/status/1639386112706609153

Smallest drawdowns from their ATH prices among tokens with >$200M FDV :

$ARB : -35%
$RPL : -37%
$KAS : -39%
$GMX : -39%
$RDNT : -41%
$SUI : -50%
$EDU : -55%
$BTC : -56%
$OP : -59%
$AGIX : -60%
$ETH : -62%
$APT : -62%
$LVL : -63%
$SSV : -63%
$PEPE : -63%

Of course, a lot of tokens are in this list simply because they are "new"

But you want to bid the coins that are new

These are the coins that will have a breakout, price discovery, and sky will be the the limit

Drawdown from ATH is a factor to take into account for positioning

The whole Arbitrum ecosystem + $PEPE have higher potential because they will be in price discovery again at some time

Recap of the week + good tweets :

(a lot of different pockets of performance this week)

https://cryptonarratives.substack.com/p/narratives-of-the-week-june-28

BCH sparked a dino coin narrative

BTC "forks" : $BCH $XEC $LTC $BSV $BTG
ETH forks : $ETC $ETHW
Dino coins : $QTUM $DASH $RVN $EOS $ZEC
DeFi 1.0 : $COMP $MKR $SNX $CRV $AAVE

Besides that, the strong coins are :
$PEPE
$SOL
$FTT

The higher your timeframe

The less time you need to spend looking at charts

The less stressed you are

The more profitable you should be

Data storage / filesharing "narrative" popping

This one's probably like the oracles pump we had back in Oct/Nov 22, ie will most likely last a few days and then disappear for several months

The coins :
$STORJ
$FIL
$AR
$SC

Recap of the week + good tweets :

https://cryptonarratives.substack.com/p/narratives-of-the-week-july-5

The best crypto trading video of this week, you should watch it :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3cEWY2e-dI

Bad strategy :

Cut winning trades quickly because you don't want to lose your unrealized PnL

You can be right very often on your picks and yet lose money if you only make small gains when you're right but lose big on your bad trades

This advice will become increasingly true and important as we approach the bull run

Trading read of the day : this old thread by "Beetcoin" about the different stages of the price action of any financial asset :

https://twitter.com/thedefivillain/status/1678713510027468800

On-chain degen watchlist :

$JIM
$FUMO
$DMT
$UNIBOT
$DUNG
$RLB
$BITCOIN (Hpos10u)

Recap of the week + good tweets :

A lot of things happened in cryptoland, despite being in the middle of summer !

https://cryptonarratives.substack.com/p/narratives-of-the-week-july-12

These coins pump way harder than the market

If the current momentum remains, they will probably be good positions to have

Almost all of them are quite close to their ATHs and price discovery is a blessing in risk-on environments

High risk though, memecoin energy

Watchlist :

$BTC : ETF still in play + safest long
$ETH : Ripple news good for all the non-BTC coins
$SOL : not-a-security narrative + best alt L1 survivor + community/shillers
$LDO : levered ETH
$MATIC : rebranding + not-a-security narrative
$INJ : winners keep winning
$OP : Base catalyst + L2 / EIP-4844
$SNX : beta play to $OP + end of DeFi bear market
$XRP / $XLM : candidates for shorts now that the catalyst is behind ?
$AVAX : follows SOL ?
$CFX : 2023 darling of crypto traders
$PEPE : pepeeee (outperforms in bullish conditions)
$ARB : L2 / EIP-4844 + new coin
$RLB : gamblefi narrative (see also the smaller gamblefi/memecoins in my previous tweets)
$APE : rebound from NFT bottom + potential short squeeze
$BCH : exhausted narrative ie candidate for short / hedge

5 days later :

$JIM : +18%
$FUMO : +69%
$DMT : +65%
$UNIBOT : +69%
$DUNG : +53%
$RLB : +55%
$BITCOIN : +160%

I am around 80% deployed

Half of my portfolio (excl. stables) is $ETH

My 2nd biggest position is $BTC

Then my 3 biggest bets are : $SOL $LDO $ARB

All of this is spot

On the perp side, I have a $BTC long and a $PEPE long, with small $XRP $BCH $BNB hedges (shorts).

The plan is to add to the $BTC long on dips, double down when possible and hold for a long time even with significant uPnL, with the outlook of either making huge profit or 0.

Recap of the week + good tweets :

https://cryptonarratives.substack.com/p/narratives-of-the-week-july-19

Current narratives :

- The Ripple news propelled $XRP (+70% in one week) and $XLM (+45%) and they are performing well today

- L2 season and EIP-4844 catalyst : $OP is strong (+20%), $VELO too as levered OP bet, $SNX too (+ Infinex perp dex announced). Also $ARB is up 10% this week

- Memecoins and gamblefi saw significant gains : $BITCOIN (Hpos10u) up 4x, $JIM up 2x, $UNIBOT (+58%). The most controversial coin $RLB continues its price discovery (+60% this week)

- BitDAO and Mantle merged : $BIT => $MNT ticker change (+20% in 7 days)

- $SOL is one of the leading altcoins this week and has gotten many people excited

- $KAS and $INJ : too very strong coins in 2023 and remain so

20 new Telegram trading bots launching a day might be a signal that the narrative is a bit overheated

Spray and pray on these coins might still work for a few days, but most of them will pump-and-dump

As usual, the best play was to long $UNIBOT a few weeks ago and then wait

The first time I mentioned it in my weekly recaps was on May 30. At this time, it was around $15, close to its ATH, and lots of people were already talking about it on Twitter.

It had "already pumped", and yet you were not too late to take a long.

There’s a lot of alpha in wallet tracking

It’s not hard to do, you just have to put in the work to gather interesting wallets to track

It's probably 100 times more useful than TA if you're a beginner

Here's how to do it, roughly :

- Spot the wallets that were the earliest to some successful memecoins + the wallets with the highest positions in these coins

- Study if the wallets are indeed profitable traders or if it was just luck AND if they use the same wallet to trade other coins

- If they do, track them live with apps like Cielo Finance

DeFi farming :

- Upside : 5%-30% APR
- Downside : -100% in case of a hack

Investing in majors / top 50 coins :

- Upside : 3-10x in 2 years
- Downside : -50% to -80% with high likelihood that it will get back in profit

The r/r simply looks better with spot investing