Monthly recap of June is out :

https://cryptonarratives.substack.com/p/june-recap-narratives-best-performers

$BONK versus altcoins

It's the large cap memecoin that has been showing the most strength in the last 2 weeks

Shorts with good entries have not been punished a single time since the $72k rejection in early June.

A first step towards a bullish reversal would be reclaiming $59k

Germany wallets going from $3bn $BTC a few days ago to only $1.3bn now

That's great

Rip the band-aid off

$300M inflows on the $BTC ETF yesterday

Are you telling me that they simply see a good price and then buy and don't give a single f about the "4-month range breakdown muh" that CT is so scared about ?

🤔

Hopefully

Largest coins launched in 2023/2024 ranked by FDV

"$6bn FDV is the new $20bn FDV"

We swept these highs, which is a first step, but now we'd have to consolidate above $59k, ideally.

Germany had 50k $BTC in their wallets less than a month ago.

Right now, it's 13k.

This source of FUD will be over soon.

Total market cap of all L2s : $13bn
Total FDV : $37bn

So the L2/ETH ratio is around 3.4% in market cap and 10% in FDV.

It does not look too egregious after this correction, but still a lot of value extraction from $ETH

Since mid-April :

S&P500 up roughly +10%
$BTC down roughly -10%

Time for a tradfi -> crypto rotation ?

!pray

These are rare charts for $100M+ non-memecoin tokens with several months of history

$ACX here

A lot of people are getting bullish on $MKR since yesterday's 'BlackRock news'.

Remember the BlackRock RWA news in March was the catalyst that sent all the RWA tokens 2-3x higher.

I generally like $MKR on the long side but am not positioned right now.

$MKR vs altcoins is one of the most erratic charts out there. At least it's getting close to reach new highs unseen since 2021.

Usually what happens on my "shitcoins wallet" is that I buy each coin with the intention of selling much higher or never sell and ride it to zero.

So most of the positions will basically get zero'd but a small minority of coins that you ride for a high multiple without selling early makes the whole strategy profitable.

If you sell too early, your gains won't be large enough to offset the losses.

But you can't also just ride each position to infinity (unless you caught the WIF/BONK/etc of the world) or you will end up roundtripping the gains too. You have to find the right balance.

The market is showing its hands on memecoins :

$MOG and $POPCAT are the hottest ones right now

It will be very interesting to see how long this continues, and how the 'Big Four' (PEPE WIF FLOKI BONK) will react to this.

One possibility is that MOG and POPCAT continue outperforming until they converge to the Big Four valuations (ie at least $1bn MC), and then there will be a rotation to these more 'established' ones.

But you can very clearly see how saturation will become an issue for memecoins.

I think $PEPE will be the safest 'long-term' memecoin because it is now the leader, and thus acts as a Schelling point.

I would be terrified to sell my long-term spot positions on "weekly trend shift" exactly because of what just happened in the last 7 days

You end up selling at a terrible price and then market gets momentum back and you feel stupid

But one day it will indeed 'be different' and then selling will be the good idea

$WLD doing WLD things

Down -86% from top to bottom
Up +75% from bottom

A coin that likes to fck both sizes

Their scheme of yesterday (changing vesting from 3 yr to 5 yr for some unlocking tokens) does not change the preordained destination for the price of $WLD

Which is down and to the right.

But of course, first they have a lot of late short sellers to squeeze.

The more this squeezes, the safer you can feel shorting it. It's tricky to time it, though.

Recap of the last 2 weeks :

https://cryptonarratives.substack.com/p/narratives-of-the-week-july-17