📈 Market pulse — by Treysi

Hey, it’s Treysi. Short & actionable.

📊 Quick read (as of today):
• BTC — ≈ $108.4K. Range tight; bids still defend the key shelf.
• ETH — ≈ $4.46K. ETF flows keep the drumbeat; moves come in steps.
• TON — ≈ $3.15. Wallet rollout inside Telegram = real user on‑ramp, not just hype.


🔤 Week plan
1️⃣ BTC
• Strength path: hold > 110.5K → window to 112.8–114K.
• Patience path: reactive buys on structure in 107.2–106.5K (m15–H1).
• Risk: max 1% per idea; stop lives behind structure, not price.

2️⃣ ETH
• Bull zone 4.30–4.35K.
• Above 4.55K → retest highs on momentum.
• Remember: ETF tape = trend days + shallow pullbacks; don’t chase green candles.

3️⃣ TON
• Idea is use‑case, not just coin: payments, Mini Apps, DeFi inside Telegram.
• Levels: support 3.00–3.10; acceptance > 3.40–3.50 opens room.

🧠 𝗧𝗿𝗲𝘆𝘀𝗶 𝗰𝗵𝗲𝗰𝗸𝗹𝗶𝘀𝘁 (save this):
rule #1 — never average a loser;
rule #2 — hard stop + trade journal;
rule #3 — after news, wait for the retest.

Want a live breakdown of your ticker? Drop it below with 🔥 — I’ll queue setups by demand.

⚠️ 𝗗𝗶𝘀𝗰𝗹𝗮𝗶𝗺𝗲𝗿: Not financial advice. I share my experience and plan. 𝗗𝗬𝗢𝗥 + manage risk.

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🔎 The ads‐subsidy flywheel: stars → ads (−30%) → TON

Hey, it’s Treysi. Today’s edge isn’t on most crypto channels — but it’s tradable.

🔤 What people miss:
• Telegram subsidizes ads by 30% when creators reinvest Stars into Telegram Ads. That makes effective CPM lower for teams buying reach with Stars.
• Creators can withdraw Stars to TON via Fragment — or use them to fund ads inside Telegram.
• Ads are paid in TON, and Toncoin is now on Robinhood — retail rails in the U.S. just opened.
→ Net: bursts of Stars activity (giveaways / mini‑app promos / creator pushes) can spill into TON flows and kick off short, tradable impulses.

🎯 Trade play — TON "Stars Weeks"
When: cluster weeks with (a) new Telegram updates around Stars/Giveaways or (b) visible promo waves in mini‑apps / channels.
How:
1) Bias build near support (I watch 3.00–3.10) with invalidation on daily close < `2.88`.
2) Momentum add only on acceptance `3.40–3.50` → path to 3.80–3.95.
3) De‑risk on first sign of failing retests; risk ≤ 1% per idea.
This is a *tactical* idea — trade the impulse, don’t marry it.

🛠 How to spot it (free osint)
• Stars/Giveaways news → expect promo waves → prep levels.
• Fragment / TON explorers: watch labeled Fragment accounts for unusual traffic — it’s a rough proxy for Stars→TON conversions.
• Robinhood lists TON — if U.S. retail wakes up during a Stars push, liquidity spikes fast.

Not financial advice. I share my plan and observations.

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🟡 This week: 3 simple moves

Hey, it’s Treysi. No fluff — here’s what I’m watching and how I’ll trade it.

Timers (Warsaw time):
• Thu, Sep 11 — U.S. CPI at 14:30.
• Tue–Wed, Sep 16–17 — FOMC meeting.

🪙 Flows this month
Funds keep favoring ETH over BTC (last week’s flows tilted to ETH). That’s fuel for ETH strength on dips.

🔖 My plan (easy mode)
1) CPI trade (Thu): I don’t chase the first spike. I wait for a 5‑min retest — if price holds above the pre‑print high, I follow; if it fails, I fade back into the range.
2) ETH over BTC: On red hours, I prefer buying ETH dips vs BTC, then trimming into the first strong bounce.
3) Friday options pin: Each Friday’s expiry often pulls price to nearby magnets. I avoid fresh trades in the last 2–3 hours unless we break and hold beyond the cluster.

📗 Quick checklist
rule #1 Risk ≤ 1% per idea.
rule #2 Stop sits behind structure, not a round number.
rule #3 News days = trade the retest, not the spike.

If you want a live read on your ticker, drop it in comments with 🔥 — I’ll queue the charts.

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🔹 Ethereum on the rise: time to go long?

Friends, over the past couple of weeks Ethereum (ETH) has been significantly outperforming BTC both in terms of price dynamics and volatility.

So let’s break down its chart and figure out — is it too late to buy, and is it worth going long?

🔤 In the last 4 days, ETH has gained more than 10% and is now consolidating around the $4,700 level.

Ahead, we have the $4,791: mark (see the chart attached to this post) — a fairly strong resistance level, from which we might see a local pullback.

📥 That’s why my approach right now is simply to watch how the asset behaves as it approaches $4,790:

• If the move is sharp and there’s no follow-through momentum after the breakout, I’ll take a short position (sell).

• If the move is smooth and gradual, I’ll be entering a long position (buy).

My most important rule is this: patience. Only those who approach the market carefully and analyze each trade properly make big money.

❕ I know this both from my own experience and from the experience of my successful trader friends, who have already made tens of millions of dollars from trading 🔥

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💵 3 days to the Fed: rise or trap?

Friends, only 3 days remain until the long-awaited Fed meeting, where an official announcement on a rate cut is expected!

🔤 In my personal opinion, supported by insights from top US market analysts, the probability of a rate cut currently stands at 93%.

We can expect the market to react positively once these expectations are priced in, which should lead to growth.

However, ahead of this event, the majority of traders will likely try to profit from long positions, which could create an excess of liquidity in the opposite direction.

❕ Therefore, before the next upward move, I wouldn’t be surprised to see an initial dip. Keep this in mind — locally, the market often moves against the «crowd», but the overall trend usually remains intact 🔥

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📉 The big resistance for Bitcoin

Today, I came across this infographic — the $116,900 level currently represents Bitcoin’s key resistance!

This is where the largest concentration of sell orders is located, which could hinder upward price movement.

❕ If this zone is successfully breached, the asset’s growth is likely to accelerate, making it significantly easier for the price to continue rising.

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📊 What tokens I’m buying now: the corporate L1 trend

Over the past two years, there’s been a lot of speculation around how large corporations would approach Web3 product development. The expectation was that they’d either adopt Ethereum L2s or build on low-cost L1s like Solana.

Now the picture is becoming clearer — and the real scenario looks very different.

🔤 Several major companies have recently announced the launch of their own L1 blockchains instead of relying on existing networks:

• Circle — Arc. A blockchain optimized for stablecoin operations, with USDC as the primary settlement asset. Fully EVM-compatible.

• Tether — Stable & Plasma. Stable is focused on scaling USDT usage in payments, while Plasma is a hybrid L1 targeting DeFi integration.

• Stripe — Tempo. A corporate-focused L1 blockchain built in collaboration with Paradigm. Also EVM-compatible.

This trend suggests that if even one of these projects succeeds, it could trigger similar moves from other fintech giants such as Visa, PayPal, and Google.

📥 How to position for the trend

The most strategic way to get exposure right now may not be through these new L1s directly, but through the infrastructure that supports them:

• Oracles — services that bring off-chain data into blockchains. Examples: Chainlink, Pyth Network.
• Bridges — solutions that enable token and data transfer across multiple chains. Examples: LayerZero, Wormhole.

These technologies will be critical for connecting a growing number of new L1s, putting them at the very center of rising demand.

💸 My take on Chainlink (LINK)

Chainlink has already been a key player in the RWA (real-world assets) narrative as the main conduit between offline and on-chain environments. Now, its importance grows even further within this corporate L1 scenario.

Adding to that, recent news revealed that the U.S. Department of Commerce and Chainlink are bringing government macroeconomic data on-chain, directly boosting the relevance of oracles.

Unsurprisingly, the market reacted: PYTH (Pyth Network) surged +70%, while LINK gained +6%.

❕ That’s why I’ve been steadily increasing my position in LINK over the past couple of months 🔥

This is not financial advice

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🪙 Solana is ready for an ETF launch

Friends, a few days ago the SEC officially approved the general listing standards for the SOL-ETF!

An ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund) is a fund whose shares are traded on an exchange like regular stocks. By buying a SOL-ETF, large investors will be able to gain exposure to a portfolio that includes Solana, without needing to purchase the cryptocurrency directly.

This is a major positive for Solana — very soon, large funds will be able to acquire this asset.

❕ This development significantly strengthens our expectations for continued growth in SOL 🔥

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💰 Just 28% of BTC Is available on the market — fact

Friends, today I came across an interesting update from Glassnode — around 72% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply (14.3M BTC) is now classified as illiquid.

In simple terms, only about 28% of BTC is actually available for buying and selling.

🔤 This metric is crucial for understanding market dynamics.

1️⃣ First, the growth in illiquid supply highlights the behavior of long-term holders (HODLers) who remain unwilling to sell even during periods of high volatility. This reinforces Bitcoin’s narrative as a store of value while reducing selling pressure.

2️⃣ Second, the structural squeeze on liquid supply sets the stage for a potential supply-side shock. If demand holds or increases, the shortage of freely circulating BTC could act as a powerful catalyst for further price appreciation.

Historically, during bear markets the share of liquid supply tends to rise, while in bull phases it declines.

❕ The new all-time high in illiquid supply signals that the market is in an accumulation phase — with long-term investors building the foundation for a potential continuation of the bullish cycle 🔥

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🪙 What’s happening with Solana — and where to open a trade?

Friends, I know many of you trade fundamentally strong assets. I’ve already covered BTC and ETH — now it’s time to talk about Solana (SOL).

🔤 Looking at the chart right now, we can see a local correction — just like in most other assets. Currently, SOL is trading around $210.

There’s no clear scenario at this stage, since price is still moving inside the range with $190 as the lower boundary. That’s exactly the level I’m watching to enter a long position.

What matters here is that after a potential breakout of this level, we don’t see an immediate sharp drop. For me, that would be a strong signal of an upward reversal.

My advice: don’t overcomplicate your charts.

In trading, there are really only two approaches:
1️⃣ Super simple strategies (like the one I just outlined).
2️⃣ Complex high-frequency trading.

❕ If you’re a beginner, I strongly recommend sticking to simple setups instead of trying to invent complicated systems — that’s how you actually make money 🔥

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📈 Which DEX token should you add to your portfolio?

Friends, in recent months, decentralized exchanges (DEXs) have become one of the hottest topics. Among them, Hyperliquid stands out with impressive fee volumes, and Aster caught attention after its token surged following a mention by Binance founder.

The key question: which DEXs are truly worth investing in, not just hyped? Our team decided to take a closer look.

🔤 We compared three projects — Aster, Hyperliquid, and Avantis — across key metrics: trading volume, open interest, fees, and TVL.

For reference, we used Binance and Coinbase. Looking at fair market valuation via the P/S ratio (price-to-sales), Binance, with $17 billion in revenue, would theoretically be worth $120–140 billion, while Coinbase is at $50 billion with $5.9 billion in revenue.

In terms of trading volume, Aster (~$83B) and Avantis (~$95B) surpass Hyperliquid (~$72B). But their open interest is abnormally low: Aster — ~$2.8B, Avantis — ~$0.18B, Hyperliquid — ~$92B. This greatly distorts the picture.

The main reason is airdrops: traders actively “farm” tokens, artificially inflating volume.

📥 Looking at fees and multipliers (market cap/fees), Aster and Avantis are comparable to Hyperliquid. However, relative to their fully diluted valuation (FDV), their figures are twice as high as Hyperliquid and nearly ten times higher than Binance.

This is due to low token circulation and upcoming capital dilution.

— TVL at Avantis is minimal, yet its capital efficiency appears six times higher, which could indicate either exceptional efficiency or artificial trading activity.

Real revenues are far below reported numbers: around $14M for Aster, and effectively near zero for Avantis.

🔎 Conclusions:

• Aster — Technologically promising with Binance support, but entry is currently too speculative. The optimal approach is to wait for the airdrop to finish (October 4) and for a market correction.

• Avantis — Metrics are highly inflated, fundamentals are weak, and growth may only be short-term, driven by trader migration after the Aster airdrop.

❕ For now, our company’s portfolio holds only the HYPE token in a small amount. We are not buying other projects’ tokens yet — we prefer to wait for a correction and more balanced project metrics 🔥

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📉 M2 Index Turns Downward: A Warning Signal for Markets

From a global liquidity perspective, the M2 index signals the approach of a headwind period for financial markets, starting in November.

🔤 The global M2 liquidity index is an aggregated and optimized metric that reflects the growth rate of the money supply.

In the past, it has led Bitcoin (BTC) by roughly 110 days, and it is now showing a downward turn beginning this November.

— This indicator has high predictive value: the correlation coefficient with BTC is around 0.9 over time horizons ranging from one month to three years.

This suggests that the current downward turn of the index may signal a tightening of liquidity conditions toward the end of the year, which in turn could put pressure on risk assets (see chart).

❕ However, the short-term outlook remains moderately positive: the index still points to favorable liquidity conditions in October, which could support demand for risk assets in the coming weeks.

Should I make more posts with an overview and explanation of the indicators that I use myself?

🔥 — Yes
🐳 — No

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💸 How to Properly Read Altseason Index Signals

The cryptocurrency market is cyclical: periods of Bitcoin dominance alternate with the so-called «altseason» and vice versa. However, catching this transition in real time is extremely difficult.

To address this challenge, the Altcoin Season Index was created. Yet, most investors interpret it too literally, which often leads to misleading conclusions

🔤 Interpretation of the Index

The Altcoin Season Index measures what percentage of the top 100 coins by market cap have outperformed Bitcoin in terms of returns over the past 90 days.

Its basic framework is:
• <25 – Bitcoin season (capital rotates into BTC while alts stagnate or decline).
• 25–75 – transition zone (some alts are rallying, but BTC dominance remains strong).
• >75 – altseason (broad-based outperformance of altcoins versus Bitcoin).

However, it’s important to note: this index reflects capital rotation that has already occurred — it does not predict the future.

📥 Therefore, interpretation should be as follows:

• >70 — alts are already at peak attention; time to consider taking profits.
• <25 — capital is flowing strongly into BTC as a «safe haven»; also a good time to look for profit-taking opportunities.

Historically, this indicator has proven to be highly accurate. For example, in April–early May 2021 the index stayed in the 80–90 range.

During that period, Ethereum surged from $700 to $4,000. But by late May, the market entered a significant correction.

📈 Backtests conducted by our analytics team suggest that the optimal exit strategy for alt positions is gradual profit-taking in equal portions over 2–3 weeks once the index crosses above 50.

As for the current market context: the index is at relatively elevated levels, making fresh entries into alts less attractive. Preserving capital in Bitcoin or stablecoins is the more prudent approach.

Looking forward, it’s crucial to remember my key thesis: this cycle will not see broad-based growth across all assets.

❕ My stance is clear: the best performance will come from projects with established business models and sustainable operating profits 🔥

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📈 This is a trait of all successful traders

Friends, here’s an important insight: understanding where liquidity moves in the crypto market will determine your success in trading.

💸 Your job as a trader and investor is to identify liquidity zones that influence price.

These are typically areas where stop-loss orders are clustered.

These zones matter because when price hits SLs, buy or sell orders are triggered automatically, creating sharp price impulses.

🔤 Before trading, make sure to:
1. Identify key support and resistance levels.
2. Spot clusters of stop-loss orders.
3. Analyze the market context: news flow and risk appetite.
4. Plan your entry and exit points, taking trade risk into account.

I’ve attached an example chart breakdown above.

❕ Important: if you see prices approaching your entry point too quickly, it’s better to skip the trade and wait for a better opportunity 🔥

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💰 Macro → Bitcoin: a 60‑Second Map

All financial markets are closely interconnected — that’s a fact. Those who know how to interpret these connections correctly earn significantly more.

🔤 The stock market and macroeconomic events are among the main triggers for liquidity flows in BTC and its price movements:

• Inflation surprises (CPI / PPI)
• Central bank policies
• Dollar dynamics (DXY index)
• Employment and unemployment data
• M2 money supply

All of these have a powerful impact.

🔖 Recall some examples:

• March 2023: The Fed raised rates by 0.25 pp despite expectations of a pause — BTC dropped by ≈6.5%.
• March 2025: CPI came in at 3.0% vs. expectations of 2.8% — BTC dropped by ≈4.2%.

❕ In our team, we have a dedicated department that monitors these events and executes trades based on them.

Do you want me to cover such events with analytics? If yes, hit 🔥

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💸 New smart wallet for memecoins has been found

Today, my team dove back into tracking smart wallets that generate significant profits on memecoins — and we discovered an interesting trader.

His actions resemble insider trading.

🔤 6 days ago, the PRYS token was launched — another project that is essentially worthless, but its price manipulations create opportunities to earn.

Who cares: link to the token (not an advertisement or a financial recommendation)

— Within just a few hours of trading, the token was pumped by over 45,000%, and amid all this hype, we identified a smart trader: «RFSqPtn» (marked with an arrow on the chart).

He bought the token for around $2,000 just a minute after the launch and started taking profits at the very peaks.

This doesn’t look like luck.

❕ We are now actively monitoring his moves, and if we find valuable insights, we’ll share them with you too 🔥

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💰 Million for BTC — Myth or Mathematical Logic?

Rumors about Bitcoin reaching $500K or even $1M are circulating in the crypto world. Let’s break down whether such price levels are possible from the perspective of numbers, the money market, and capital allocation logic.

🔤 To estimate Bitcoin’s potential price, it’s important to understand how much of the global capital it could realistically capture.

According to the data for 2025, the volumes look like this:

• Global M2 (broad money supply): $127.3T
• Corporate treasuries: $39.9T
• Central bank reserves: $15.5T
• Gold: $23.9T

Total: ~$206.7T of potential «monetary market».

💸 What Happens if BTC Captures Even a Small Share?

Suppose investors, corporations, and countries start allocating a portion of their assets to BTC. Not all of it — just 1–10%. With the current supply (~19.7M BTC), the math is simple:

• 1% market capture = ~$104,573 per BTC
• 5% = ~$522,865
• 10% = ~$1,045,730

This isn’t just Reddit fantasy — it aligns with CoinShares’ modeling using the Verhulst S-curve, a standard approach for tech adoption (internet, smartphones, social networks).

This is a gradual capital shift over 10–15 years, similar to how the internet, mobile communication, and social networks grew — through ETFs, pension funds, corporate balance sheets, and retail investors in countries with weakening currencies.

❕ Mathematically, Bitcoin can reach $500K or even $1M if it captures 5–10% of the global monetary market 🔥

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