Ukrainian births apparently fell to a more than 300 year low in 2023. The lowest low of ~187,000 births is due to both the humongous number of women aged 18-40 who have left the country as well as other effects from a war that cratered an already low TFR.

Births may have fallen even further (to below 180,000) in 2024. Considering births were sub 90,000 in the first half of 2024 this is very possible. If the millions of women who fled in 2022 and 2023 never return, Ukraine faces an existential threat even if they come out of the war still holding ~80% of their territory.

https://www.intellinews.com/ukraine-s-birth-rate-plummets-to-300-year-low-as-country-s-population-collapses-321317/

So official Ukrainian stats on 2024 births are out & births fell by another 5.7% last year to sub 180,000 (176,679 to be exact). Better than numbers from January to June which showed a 9.4% decline in births but still bad. Hard to see postwar bump making up for all lost births.

So 176,679 births and 495,090 deaths last year. Huge natural decline. This obviously does not count missing, and presumed dead, soldiers of which there are many. Lviv (despite having a relatively modest sized population) saw the highest number of births after Kyiv.

https://t.co/EyjI91ZVhA

Based on the latest Census the Fertility Rate in El Salvador has plummeted to just 1.4. The Capital San Salvador has a TFR of just 1.14, an East Asian or European low.

🇵🇱👶Polish births fell by around 20,000 last year to around 252,000. Poland had approximately the same TFR as China in 2024 (1.10). Natural decline topped 150,000. TFR was still above lowest low as recently as 2021. Truly a massive fall these past few years.

https://t.co/07AahTzQiH

The disappearance of children in East Asia is nothing short of astonishing. After hitting a peak above 425 million in the late 1970s the number of children has plummeted to only around 250 million today & will likely fall below 100 million below 2070. Our world is changing.

Romanian births dropped below 150,000 in 2024(149,612)for the 1st time in its modern history. During height of the birth boom from 1967-1969, in the wake of Ceaușescu's Decree 770,births were more than three times higher.  Births were above 300,000 from 1967-1990 before plunging.

France looks set to have no further natural growth by 2030. That is if TFR stays in the 1.55-1.65 range. If it goes below 1.55 then this will obviously happen sooner. The French government already provides generous pro-natal policies & has for years. No longer enough it seems.

In India the total number of births last year was more than births of China, the United States, Brazil, Egypt, Canada, Korea (North and South), Italy, Japan, Russia combined. Despite the latter countries having more than 2.5 billion combined people. 23 million plus births with a TFR of just 1.9. Population momentum powerful…

By 2030 Hungary may have the same population it did in 1945. & it could have truly been even worse. If emigration had reached Bulgarian or Romanian levels Hungary would be cooked. Emigration combined with low TFR is the rapid nation killer,without it you have 30 years momentum.

Japan went below replacement in 1974 and did not see natural decline until 2005 whereas Moldova fell below replacement only on 1994 and started seeing natural decline in 1998. Albania fell below replacement in 2002 and saw its first year of natural decline in 2021 (COVID pushed).

Romania, Bulgaria, Albania, Moldova etc all saw total population decline just a few years after dropping back below replacement as so many young people fled their countries. This did not happen in Japan, South Korea, or Japan which all got ~30+ years of population momentum.

🇹🇼👶Epic demographic decline in January in Taiwan. 14% year on year decline in the first month of 2025. Taiwan will hit South Korean TFR levels this year if this trend holds and may end up with a TFR of ~0.75.

https://www.stat.gov.tw/Statistics.aspx?n=2961&CaN=363

7.9 million Chinese births for 2025 is very possible. This is the beginning of the great Chinese die off. Natural decline of up to 3 million next year and 5 million+ a year by 2030. If TFR stays around 1.0-1.2 then by 2050 decline will climb to at least 10 million per year.

Very interested to see what the actual demographic situation is in the Philippines. Their birth data is sketchy most years to say the least. While it is probably sub 1.7 fertility it’s very difficult to say exactly. Accurate TFR in the south/ARMM would also be interesting.

Seen all the estimates but the birth registration updates are slow often giving an inaccurate picture most years. Considering the huge numbers of Filipinos working abroad this will have an outsized impact on the region.

El Salvador on 1.4 TFR, Guatemala on 1.85, Panama on 1.78, Costa Rica 1.15, Nicaragua 2.0, Honduras 2.1. With high emigration Central America looks set for natural decline relatively soon. This area could become the Western Hemisphere’s Eastern Europe demographically speaking.

When China gets to the 2050 pyramid basically nothing can be done to avoid losing many hundreds of millions of people. The die is cast. That is where many many countries will be by 2050. Germany, Japan, Italy, South Korea etc

With possible exception of France all major European Union countries (those with 30 million plus people)have disastrous fertility rates. Spain (49M) on 1.12, Poland (38M) on 1.10 in 2024 (far worse than 1.2 for 2023 shown here), Italy (58M) on 1.2, Germany (83M) on 1.36. Hard to pull out of this nosedive.

Countries with decent TFR but sub 10 million people won’t save Europe. The lack of fertility cults also hurts chances of any rebound. Don’t see culture changing dramatically enough in Spain, Germany, Italy, etc to get TFR back to 1.7/1.8. Nothing is impossible though 🤷‍♂️.

Staggering impact of the birth crisis on China: Hospitals are shutting their obstetrics units,enrollments in China’s kindergartens plummeted by more than five million in 2023 causing thousands to close,more than 170,000 preschool teachers lost their jobs.

https://t.co/aGN74knRuC

In 2024 the region of Russia with the highest fertility rate was Chechnya (just 1% of Russia’s population) at 2.71. The lowest was Leningrad Oblast at 0.89. Tuva (population sub 400,000) was the only administrative area besides Chechnya above replacement.

Tatarstan is close to the national TFR average on 1.44. The fertility rate in Buryatia has collapsed to 1.52 from 1.95 in 2020. In Moscow TFR is 1.46, in Saint Petersburg 1.26. In Bashkiria/Bashkortostan TFR is below the national average at just 1.36. In Mordovia TFR just 0.99.

fedpress.ru/article/3365231

Kiwis are emigrating in huge numbers. With that in mind New Zealand may have the highest Anglo fertility rate in the FVEY grouping of the U.S.,UK,Canada,Australia, & New Zealand. There was a net loss of 47,000 New Zealanders last year due to emigration.

While many Kiwis leave the number of births has not plummeted. In 2024 births even went up by ~1,400 to 58,300. Anglo Kiwis seem to have pretty decent TFR (similar to Australians) while immigrant TFR may follow a similar pattern to Australia. Main immigrant communities in NZ are from England, China, & India.

https://t.co/Z71AGmR6Q3