MVRV at 2.592

Hasn’t budged in a while

In line with where it’s been prior to past big surges

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Prediction marketes giving 67% odds of $SOL hitting $200 this month

BUT WAIT

Now realizing why these crypto prediction market odds are so often so far off

These betters aren’t putting any real effort into trying to predict the future prices

No

Bet these betters are simply doing arbitrage against the crypto options markets

I.e. taking a probability-of-touch model, assuming the classic Black-Scholes model of Brownian Motion, inputing current options info, outputting implied odds,

and then you do arbitrage between the crypto options markets and these prediction market prices, if the two sufficiently differ

Problem?

Yes, big problem

Those methods have awful success rates, all kinds of things distort options prices from being good predictions of future price touching

These betters likely only do this at all because it’s a guaranteed win for them

Yeah, bet that solves the mystery

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What the code for a probability-of-touch model looks like

Widely known, easy

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BTW,

$BTC just dumped to $93k

$SOL dumped to $215

Both immediately bounced back… for now

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$BTC continuing to fly upward out after that dump

$BTC & $ETH did too at first,

…but both now looking like they’re anticipating that $BTC has over-corrected in the short term…

We’ll see

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Checking in on $XRP memes

Bad, pretty bad, doing much worse than $SOL & $ETH memecoins are rn

What does that tell me?

Tells me that $XRP whales are expecting $XRP to tank hard soon, exactly as it did in its last 2 spikes

— And you definitely don’t want to be holding memecoins on a platform whose coin is about to tank

Memecoins are for when a platform’s token has recently surged, and that price is expected to roughly hold if not grow, but not grow as hugely as at the start of the surge

— so rotation to memecoins & other new coins, where huge growth is still happening, happens after the majors surge

But

This rotation doesn’t happen at all if it’s expected that the major coin will simply totally collapse

You don’t want to be heavy on memes on a platform whose coin totally collapses

— Which feels like exactly what the market is anticipating with $XRP

$XPR market expecting $XRP spike to be short-lived, soon collapse, it seems

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$SOL & $ETH memecoin performance over recent days, for comparison

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My latest memecoin launch success rate charts

Also did cactus style survival plots, which can give you more immediate estimates of current market conditions, without having to wait for a delay to measure success

— but this one gives you a clearer picture of how memecoin launch success relates to market conditions in general

= Massively improved success rates & ROIs soon after big surges, and the bigger the surge the bigger that increase

Wave analogy theory — when it comes to new launches, timing the market really does matter

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Korea

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Koreans loading up on $XRP

This is going to turn out just great

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Longish-term downward slide of $SOL/$BTC over past few days

IIRC often tends to lead up to dumps…

Will see later if I can chart the accuracy of such SOL/BTC-based predictions

There’s some trickiness in that it’s very unclear the timespan over which such “predictions” by the SOL/BTC price apply, even if totally real, it’s likely that the timespan is non-stationary, varying over time, and predicting over multiple timeframes at once.

Will think about it

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🚨🚨🚨 Massive spike in $SOL prices

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🚨🚨🚨 Grayscale files for $SOL ETF with NYSE

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$SOL continuing to fly upward on $ETF news

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