$ETH/SOL
— been in a downward channel this whole year
$ETH now at the top of this downward channel vs $SOL
Will $ETH finally break out of this channel?
Crash back downward toward the bottom of the channel?
🄳🄾🄾🄼🄿🄾🅂🅃🄸🄽🄶
— been in a downward channel this whole year
$ETH now at the top of this downward channel vs $SOL
Will $ETH finally break out of this channel?
Crash back downward toward the bottom of the channel?
🄳🄾🄾🄼🄿🄾🅂🅃🄸🄽🄶
👀7
DoomPosting
🄳🄾🄾🄼🄿🄾🅂🅃🄸🄽🄶
$NVDA vs $BTC is a story of 2 groups refusing to accept certain inevitable realities
$NVDA’s outsized performance surprise
— A product of the electronics reality that simply spending massively more money, to make massively more parallel circuits, was always going to be the eventual path forward, both in absolute compute power terms and efficiency cost-per-compute terms
— And the commie-infested software development world refusing to accept this basic electrical engineering reality
— Right up until they couldn’t refuse it anymore, and them boom
$BTC’s underperformance surprise
— A product of the now laggard-filled crypto field, putting their first serious money into crypto a decade or more after they first could have,
refusing to accept that they may now be generals preparing to fight the last war
refusing the reality that though bitcoin CAN go up forever, it could not keep going up forever at the rate it was initially going up at
— never was going to maintain the
9 MILLION percent increase per year, forever? Clearly not.
Clearly its rate of return always was going to attenuate in some way, as it already has been steadily doing for the past 15 years
Log-log model is pretty decent for $BTC
So, surprised by $NVIDIA vs $BTC?
— Both sides of this, are story of the respective camps refusing to accept certain basic hard realities, right up until reality hits hard
🄳🄾🄾🄼🄿🄾🅂🅃🄸🄽🄶
$NVDA’s outsized performance surprise
— A product of the electronics reality that simply spending massively more money, to make massively more parallel circuits, was always going to be the eventual path forward, both in absolute compute power terms and efficiency cost-per-compute terms
— And the commie-infested software development world refusing to accept this basic electrical engineering reality
— Right up until they couldn’t refuse it anymore, and them boom
$BTC’s underperformance surprise
— A product of the now laggard-filled crypto field, putting their first serious money into crypto a decade or more after they first could have,
refusing to accept that they may now be generals preparing to fight the last war
refusing the reality that though bitcoin CAN go up forever, it could not keep going up forever at the rate it was initially going up at
— never was going to maintain the
(50/0.4)^(1/0.424) = 9,331,348% annualized rate of return that Bitcoin was increasing at, in the first big Bitcoin surge, back in 20119 MILLION percent increase per year, forever? Clearly not.
Clearly its rate of return always was going to attenuate in some way, as it already has been steadily doing for the past 15 years
Log-log model is pretty decent for $BTC
So, surprised by $NVIDIA vs $BTC?
— Both sides of this, are story of the respective camps refusing to accept certain basic hard realities, right up until reality hits hard
🄳🄾🄾🄼🄿🄾🅂🅃🄸🄽🄶
👀6👏3😁1
Pumpfun slight revenue pullback since November 23rd
But was it the streams?
Something else?
Nothing but another normal pullback, on the rocket to a much higher, much later top?
🄳🄾🄾🄼🄿🄾🅂🅃🄸🄽🄶
But was it the streams?
Something else?
Nothing but another normal pullback, on the rocket to a much higher, much later top?
🄳🄾🄾🄼🄿🄾🅂🅃🄸🄽🄶
👀4
DoomPosting
My latest memecoin launch success rate charts Also did cactus style survival plots, which can give you more immediate estimates of current market conditions, without having to wait for a delay to measure success — but this one gives you a clearer picture…
Pumpfun revenue — another interesting signal, tracking pumpfun memecoin performance prior to their launch
See also my memecoin success-rate charts, tracking post-launch pumpfun coin performance
Wow, look at how there were ~zero pumpfuns back in March, the local peak of many of the biggest real memecoin successes so far
— Back when memecoin price charts didn’t all make the christmas tree shape,
as the pumpfuns increasingly have, starting with the disaster that was $BODEN
Mark my words, getting “good” at pumpfuns trading will make you pick up very bad habits, that’ll be hard to shake, leave you poor by the end of the cycle
Only machine-run strategies have ever gotten rich from short holding times
Human-run strategies have always required much longer holding times, to make people rich, or at least holding until qualified exit events
Been a basic reality of markets for hundreds of years, only a matter of time before it’s clear this never stopped being a reality
2025 will be year of the HODL
🄳🄾🄾🄼🄿🄾🅂🅃🄸🄽🄶
See also my memecoin success-rate charts, tracking post-launch pumpfun coin performance
Wow, look at how there were ~zero pumpfuns back in March, the local peak of many of the biggest real memecoin successes so far
— Back when memecoin price charts didn’t all make the christmas tree shape,
as the pumpfuns increasingly have, starting with the disaster that was $BODEN
Mark my words, getting “good” at pumpfuns trading will make you pick up very bad habits, that’ll be hard to shake, leave you poor by the end of the cycle
Only machine-run strategies have ever gotten rich from short holding times
Human-run strategies have always required much longer holding times, to make people rich, or at least holding until qualified exit events
Been a basic reality of markets for hundreds of years, only a matter of time before it’s clear this never stopped being a reality
2025 will be year of the HODL
🄳🄾🄾🄼🄿🄾🅂🅃🄸🄽🄶
👀5