GM

🄳🄾🄾🄼🄿🄾🅂🅃🄸🄽🄶

$ETH/SOL

— been in a downward channel this whole year

$ETH now at the top of this downward channel vs $SOL

Will $ETH finally break out of this channel?

Crash back downward toward the bottom of the channel?

🄳🄾🄾🄼🄿🄾🅂🅃🄸🄽🄶

$NVDA vs $BTC is a story of 2 groups refusing to accept certain inevitable realities

$NVDA’s outsized performance surprise

— A product of the electronics reality that simply spending massively more money, to make massively more parallel circuits, was always going to be the eventual path forward, both in absolute compute power terms and efficiency cost-per-compute terms

— And the commie-infested software development world refusing to accept this basic electrical engineering reality

— Right up until they couldn’t refuse it anymore, and them boom

$BTC’s underperformance surprise

— A product of the now laggard-filled crypto field, putting their first serious money into crypto a decade or more after they first could have,

refusing to accept that they may now be generals preparing to fight the last war

refusing the reality that though bitcoin CAN go up forever, it could not keep going up forever at the rate it was initially going up at

— never was going to maintain the (50/0.4)^(1/0.424) = 9,331,348% annualized rate of return that Bitcoin was increasing at, in the first big Bitcoin surge, back in 2011

9 MILLION percent increase per year, forever? Clearly not.

Clearly its rate of return always was going to attenuate in some way, as it already has been steadily doing for the past 15 years

Log-log model is pretty decent for $BTC

So, surprised by $NVIDIA vs $BTC?

— Both sides of this, are story of the respective camps refusing to accept certain basic hard realities, right up until reality hits hard

🄳🄾🄾🄼🄿🄾🅂🅃🄸🄽🄶

Pumpfun slight revenue pullback since November 23rd

But was it the streams?

Something else?

Nothing but another normal pullback, on the rocket to a much higher, much later top?

🄳🄾🄾🄼🄿🄾🅂🅃🄸🄽🄶

Pumpfun revenue — another interesting signal, tracking pumpfun memecoin performance prior to their launch

See also my memecoin success-rate charts, tracking post-launch pumpfun coin performance

Wow, look at how there were ~zero pumpfuns back in March, the local peak of many of the biggest real memecoin successes so far

— Back when memecoin price charts didn’t all make the christmas tree shape,

as the pumpfuns increasingly have, starting with the disaster that was $BODEN

Mark my words, getting “good” at pumpfuns trading will make you pick up very bad habits, that’ll be hard to shake, leave you poor by the end of the cycle

Only machine-run strategies have ever gotten rich from short holding times

Human-run strategies have always required much longer holding times, to make people rich, or at least holding until qualified exit events

Been a basic reality of markets for hundreds of years, only a matter of time before it’s clear this never stopped being a reality

2025 will be year of the HODL

🄳🄾🄾🄼🄿🄾🅂🅃🄸🄽🄶

Daniel Penny jury informs judge they cannot reach a verdict

Unclear if judge will instruct jury to continue deliberating

🄳🄾🄾🄼🄿🄾🅂🅃🄸🄽🄶

Had you bought $BTC with your $1,200 stimulus check in 2020 you'd now have almost $20,000.

🄳🄾🄾🄼🄿🄾🅂🅃🄸🄽🄶

$100k $BTC

$240 $SOL

$4k $ETH

🄳🄾🄾🄼🄿🄾🅂🅃🄸🄽🄶

$BTC surging hard in the past hour

$SOL & $ETH rejecting this surge hard, barely rising, fwiw

🄳🄾🄾🄼🄿🄾🅂🅃🄸🄽🄶

Cumulative PnL of day crypto day traders, i.e. guys frequently buying and jeeting the majors all the time, according to latest hyperliquid stats

= Negative the entire time since 2024, just dropping like a rock, and just won’t stop

Meanwhile, know what the stats would look like for just HODLing the majors?

🄳🄾🄾🄼🄿🄾🅂🅃🄸🄽🄶

Just holding any of the majors, since the start of 2024, would put you massively up

Even ETH

Now over some timespans holding the majors would’ve had you down

…but day traders are down not just over some timespans, but rather OVER ALL TIMESPANS

Really amazing how bad constant jeeting day trading, always cashing out to USDT each day, really is

IMO think of frequent cashing out being like physical bulldozing

= a task for machines

Now, yes, you COULD build a better machine, a better bulldozer than the other guys, and make money

But no, you COULD NOT outcompete the guys with bulldozer machines with a shovel and your bare hands

Day trading is the domain of the machines, not humans

(And if you do use some machine to day trade, it has to be one that extremely few or zero others have, if you want to compete, obviously)

🄳🄾🄾🄼🄿🄾🅂🅃🄸🄽🄶