DoomPosting
Now, to the question we started all of this to answer, — Is the Hayden Davis’ “we’re here to max extract” draining of memecoins true “capitalism” by any good, concrete definition? For this, I’d cite one of the most classic central rules of so-called capitalism:…
And no, memecoin bets as a whole never were automatically “bad bets”
e.g. pure memecoins like $BOME and $PNUT and others still an incredible ~70x+ above presale price or where we originally bought them, to this day, even after gigantic crashes of the market as a whole
Hayden Davis’ coins were covertly bad bets because he intentionally planned to quickly destroy them, with a plan that definitely would quickly destroy them — something absolutely not universal to memecoins as a whole
Hayden Davis was a clear extractive destructive “sociopath”, as the Mops article points out
Want to hear about another, from the 2014 memecoin wave?
— Look up Ryan Kennedy, a “sociopath” that was incredibly successful at being extractive and destructive to the Dogecoin community, so much so that he literally acquired and instantly drained the #1 altcoin exchange of the time, Mintpal
Nothing new under the sun
— When you pretend these extreme “sociopath” drainers are just normal guys doing normal business, you’re being exactly the kind of clueless idiot the mops article talks about, totally clueless about the real reason and means by which the movement actually got destroyed
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e.g. pure memecoins like $BOME and $PNUT and others still an incredible ~70x+ above presale price or where we originally bought them, to this day, even after gigantic crashes of the market as a whole
Hayden Davis’ coins were covertly bad bets because he intentionally planned to quickly destroy them, with a plan that definitely would quickly destroy them — something absolutely not universal to memecoins as a whole
Hayden Davis was a clear extractive destructive “sociopath”, as the Mops article points out
Want to hear about another, from the 2014 memecoin wave?
— Look up Ryan Kennedy, a “sociopath” that was incredibly successful at being extractive and destructive to the Dogecoin community, so much so that he literally acquired and instantly drained the #1 altcoin exchange of the time, Mintpal
Nothing new under the sun
— When you pretend these extreme “sociopath” drainers are just normal guys doing normal business, you’re being exactly the kind of clueless idiot the mops article talks about, totally clueless about the real reason and means by which the movement actually got destroyed
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DoomPosting
And no, memecoin bets as a whole never were automatically “bad bets” e.g. pure memecoins like $BOME and $PNUT and others still an incredible ~70x+ above presale price or where we originally bought them, to this day, even after gigantic crashes of the market…
“The sociopaths loot whatever value is left, and move on to the next exploit. They leave behind only wreckage:”
“Devastated geeks who still have no idea what happened”
= If you call what sociopath guys like Hayden Davis or Ryan Kennedy do “just capitalism”, or similar
— Then you’re being exactly the kind of clueless moron the Mops article warned about
Nothing about what the “sociopath” dudes do is just “capitalism” as “normal” in any way
What’s more, it’s NOT actually inevitable, movements can overcome and survive the sociopaths, as the same article points out
The sociopath types are a tiny extremely distructive minority, who must be called out for what they truly are, instead of painted as just normal and acceptable. Many movements have done this successfully, and sometimes it also requires new tech or tools
— though it’s not easy
Alright back to news
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“Devastated geeks who still have no idea what happened”
= If you call what sociopath guys like Hayden Davis or Ryan Kennedy do “just capitalism”, or similar
— Then you’re being exactly the kind of clueless moron the Mops article warned about
Nothing about what the “sociopath” dudes do is just “capitalism” as “normal” in any way
What’s more, it’s NOT actually inevitable, movements can overcome and survive the sociopaths, as the same article points out
The sociopath types are a tiny extremely distructive minority, who must be called out for what they truly are, instead of painted as just normal and acceptable. Many movements have done this successfully, and sometimes it also requires new tech or tools
— though it’s not easy
Alright back to news
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Apparently some other celebrity just launched a pumpfun coin — though seems they’ve now deleted their account
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"well i'm proud to be an economic zone, where at least there's GDP
and i won't forget the 1 in 6, who are here on H1b"
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and i won't forget the 1 in 6, who are here on H1b"
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Experienced skydiver deliberately jumped to her death day after breakup with partner, coroner confirms
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Trader 0x2611 is down over $1.85M on his $ENA long.
To avoid liquidation, he deposited another 1.7M $USDC into Hyperliquid 4 hours ago.
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To avoid liquidation, he deposited another 1.7M $USDC into Hyperliquid 4 hours ago.
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2025-08-21, 23:59 UTC
489 days after halving
Current: $112,347.10
2012 scaled: $2,476,782.57
2016 scaled: $647,519.02
2020 scaled: $333,902.90
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489 days after halving
Current: $112,347.10
2012 scaled: $2,476,782.57
2016 scaled: $647,519.02
2020 scaled: $333,902.90
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DoomPosting
If you bet $100 on a bet for which you knew you truly had 1% chance or winning, and then you lost, was that a good bet?
FYI quick sketch of expected value vs number of bets -- compared to value percentile vs number of bets
Notice how the dashed expected value line is simple and linear, with positive net EV from the very first bet
— but the percentile lines tell a very different story:
= Even after 100 bets, at a cost of $1 per bet
+ nearly 50% of the time you’ll still be at a total loss of -$100
+ though ~1% of the time you’ll have as high as ~$5 million in winnings after 100 bets
i.e.
Expected value is a rather horribly useless measure for many practical needs — totally misses that you’d still be totally bankrupt ~half the time even after 100 bets
Expected value was only ever obsessed about — because it’s very easily to calculate
These curves are very hard to figure out how to calculate… but now e.g. GPT-5 can finally nail these kinds of calculations, a large percent of the time, at last.
(“Value percentile” isn’t the real name for these VaR values at higher percentiles. Not sure if these even have any common name.)
(Btw, yes the percentile lines do form stairsteps spaced 1/percent_win = 100 bets apart for the 50th percentile line, whereas the average line is smooth.)
I.e. proper valuing math gets wildly hard fast, even trivial toy examples
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Notice how the dashed expected value line is simple and linear, with positive net EV from the very first bet
— but the percentile lines tell a very different story:
= Even after 100 bets, at a cost of $1 per bet
+ nearly 50% of the time you’ll still be at a total loss of -$100
+ though ~1% of the time you’ll have as high as ~$5 million in winnings after 100 bets
i.e.
Expected value is a rather horribly useless measure for many practical needs — totally misses that you’d still be totally bankrupt ~half the time even after 100 bets
Expected value was only ever obsessed about — because it’s very easily to calculate
These curves are very hard to figure out how to calculate… but now e.g. GPT-5 can finally nail these kinds of calculations, a large percent of the time, at last.
(“Value percentile” isn’t the real name for these VaR values at higher percentiles. Not sure if these even have any common name.)
(Btw, yes the percentile lines do form stairsteps spaced 1/percent_win = 100 bets apart for the 50th percentile line, whereas the average line is smooth.)
I.e. proper valuing math gets wildly hard fast, even trivial toy examples
🄳🄾🄾🄼🄿🄾🅂🅃🄸🄽🄶
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