Apparently some other celebrity just launched a pumpfun coin — though seems they’ve now deleted their account
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"well i'm proud to be an economic zone, where at least there's GDP
and i won't forget the 1 in 6, who are here on H1b"
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and i won't forget the 1 in 6, who are here on H1b"
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Experienced skydiver deliberately jumped to her death day after breakup with partner, coroner confirms
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Trader 0x2611 is down over $1.85M on his $ENA long.
To avoid liquidation, he deposited another 1.7M $USDC into Hyperliquid 4 hours ago.
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To avoid liquidation, he deposited another 1.7M $USDC into Hyperliquid 4 hours ago.
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2025-08-21, 23:59 UTC
489 days after halving
Current: $112,347.10
2012 scaled: $2,476,782.57
2016 scaled: $647,519.02
2020 scaled: $333,902.90
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489 days after halving
Current: $112,347.10
2012 scaled: $2,476,782.57
2016 scaled: $647,519.02
2020 scaled: $333,902.90
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DoomPosting
If you bet $100 on a bet for which you knew you truly had 1% chance or winning, and then you lost, was that a good bet?
FYI quick sketch of expected value vs number of bets -- compared to value percentile vs number of bets
Notice how the dashed expected value line is simple and linear, with positive net EV from the very first bet
— but the percentile lines tell a very different story:
= Even after 100 bets, at a cost of $1 per bet
+ nearly 50% of the time you’ll still be at a total loss of -$100
+ though ~1% of the time you’ll have as high as ~$5 million in winnings after 100 bets
i.e.
Expected value is a rather horribly useless measure for many practical needs — totally misses that you’d still be totally bankrupt ~half the time even after 100 bets
Expected value was only ever obsessed about — because it’s very easily to calculate
These curves are very hard to figure out how to calculate… but now e.g. GPT-5 can finally nail these kinds of calculations, a large percent of the time, at last.
(“Value percentile” isn’t the real name for these VaR values at higher percentiles. Not sure if these even have any common name.)
(Btw, yes the percentile lines do form stairsteps spaced 1/percent_win = 100 bets apart for the 50th percentile line, whereas the average line is smooth.)
I.e. proper valuing math gets wildly hard fast, even trivial toy examples
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Notice how the dashed expected value line is simple and linear, with positive net EV from the very first bet
— but the percentile lines tell a very different story:
= Even after 100 bets, at a cost of $1 per bet
+ nearly 50% of the time you’ll still be at a total loss of -$100
+ though ~1% of the time you’ll have as high as ~$5 million in winnings after 100 bets
i.e.
Expected value is a rather horribly useless measure for many practical needs — totally misses that you’d still be totally bankrupt ~half the time even after 100 bets
Expected value was only ever obsessed about — because it’s very easily to calculate
These curves are very hard to figure out how to calculate… but now e.g. GPT-5 can finally nail these kinds of calculations, a large percent of the time, at last.
(“Value percentile” isn’t the real name for these VaR values at higher percentiles. Not sure if these even have any common name.)
(Btw, yes the percentile lines do form stairsteps spaced 1/percent_win = 100 bets apart for the 50th percentile line, whereas the average line is smooth.)
I.e. proper valuing math gets wildly hard fast, even trivial toy examples
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Comet C/2023 A3 (Tsuchinshan–ATLAS)
It has a period of 80,000 years. The last time it was this close, Earth was inhabited by Neanderthals.
We'll never see it again.
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It has a period of 80,000 years. The last time it was this close, Earth was inhabited by Neanderthals.
We'll never see it again.
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Stray dog accidentally becomes the first to cross the Romania-Hungary border after Romania became a full member of the European Union's Schengen area
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