#Bitcoin open interest has dropped by ~30%, flushing excess leverage from the market. With funding now near neutral, the market is far less vulnerable to another liquidation cascade.

🔗https://glassno.de/4obq1v9

Long-term holder supply has declined by another 28K BTC since October 15th, meaning LTHs have spent more coins than what was aging into their cohort from short-term holders.
This reflects excessive net distribution rather than passive maturation.

🔗https://glassno.de/4qBULXY

Inspecting the monthly average spending by long-term holders shows a clear trend: their outflows have risen steadily from ~12.5k BTC/day in early July to 22.5k BTC/day now (30D-SMA).

This highlights growing distribution pressure from older investor cohorts.

🔗https://glassno.de/3Wj2wUD

The Week On-Chain 42, 2025
Bitcoin trading below key cost basis levels signals demand exhaustion. Long-term holders are selling into strength, while rising put demand and higher volatility show a defensive market.

Executive Summary
- Bitcoin trades below the short-term holders’ cost basis and the 0.85 quantile, signalling fading momentum and growing market fatigue. Repeated failures to reclaim these levels raise the risk of a longer consolidation phase.
- Long-term holders have ramped up spending since July, now exceeding 22K BTC/day, marking sustained profit-taking that continues to pressure market stability.
- Open interest hit a new ATH, but sentiment leans bearish as traders favour puts over calls. Short-term rallies are being met with hedging rather than renewed optimism.
- Implied volatility remains elevated, while realized volatility has caught up, ending the calm, low-volatility regime. Dealers’ short gamma positioning amplifies selloffs and tempers rallies.
- Both on-chain and options data suggest a cautious, transitional phase. Market recovery is likely to hinge on renewed spot demand and easing volatility.



Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter

Short-Term Holder NUPL highlights growing stress among recent buyers, reflecting a meaningful cooling of speculative excess. Historically, this type of short-term holder pain has aligned with healthier market conditions.

🔗https://glassno.de/3L4nUur

#BTC Net-premium flows reveal concentrated selling across the $109K–$115K range, indicating that recent moves higher are being used to hedge.
This suggests traders are positioning defensively into strength while the market consolidates.

🔗 https://glassno.de/3WkStyy

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Spot Bitcoin ETFs are seeing net outflows, which have often clustered around local market lows as sentiment unwinds.
When flows stabilize or turn positive, it has historically aligned with renewed demand and the early stages of trend recovery.

🔗https://glassno.de/42XGsml

#BTC Options Weekly

The BTC options market keeps expanding fast, shaping how traders price risk and volatility. Reading implied volatility, skew, and options flows helps spot shifts in sentiment before price reacts.

Check out our latest BTC Options Weekly

A hallmark of bull markets is a low Relative Unrealized Loss, typically <5%. This metric tracks the USD loss of all coins currently underwater, normalized by market cap.

The current bull market has held this structure since November 2023, making it more persistent than the equivalent phases in the last two cycles.

🔗 https://glassno.de/3L8BbSI

The Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) Oscillator continues to sit near cycle lows, indicating ample stablecoin liquidity relative to Bitcoin. Historically, such periods precede stronger bid-side support when market confidence returns.

🔗https://glassno.de/4osY1n7

Bitcoin’s cost basis distribution shows support near $111K and heavy supply around $117K.
This range defines the current battleground between recent buyers and profit-takers. A break in either direction could set the tone for the next major move.
🔗https://glassno.de/3WXsmOb

The bounce from $107k coincided with US Spot ETF netflows turning positive. However, inflows remain <1k BTC/day, significantly lower than >2.5k BTC/day seen at the start of major rallies this cycle.

Demand is recovering, but not at the intensity of recent rallies.

📈 https://glassno.de/4htoZIg