The Week On-Chain 42, 2025
Bitcoin trading below key cost basis levels signals demand exhaustion. Long-term holders are selling into strength, while rising put demand and higher volatility show a defensive market.

Executive Summary
- Bitcoin trades below the short-term holders’ cost basis and the 0.85 quantile, signalling fading momentum and growing market fatigue. Repeated failures to reclaim these levels raise the risk of a longer consolidation phase.
- Long-term holders have ramped up spending since July, now exceeding 22K BTC/day, marking sustained profit-taking that continues to pressure market stability.
- Open interest hit a new ATH, but sentiment leans bearish as traders favour puts over calls. Short-term rallies are being met with hedging rather than renewed optimism.
- Implied volatility remains elevated, while realized volatility has caught up, ending the calm, low-volatility regime. Dealers’ short gamma positioning amplifies selloffs and tempers rallies.
- Both on-chain and options data suggest a cautious, transitional phase. Market recovery is likely to hinge on renewed spot demand and easing volatility.



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Short-Term Holder NUPL highlights growing stress among recent buyers, reflecting a meaningful cooling of speculative excess. Historically, this type of short-term holder pain has aligned with healthier market conditions.

🔗https://glassno.de/3L4nUur

#BTC Net-premium flows reveal concentrated selling across the $109K–$115K range, indicating that recent moves higher are being used to hedge.
This suggests traders are positioning defensively into strength while the market consolidates.

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Spot Bitcoin ETFs are seeing net outflows, which have often clustered around local market lows as sentiment unwinds.
When flows stabilize or turn positive, it has historically aligned with renewed demand and the early stages of trend recovery.

🔗https://glassno.de/42XGsml

#BTC Options Weekly

The BTC options market keeps expanding fast, shaping how traders price risk and volatility. Reading implied volatility, skew, and options flows helps spot shifts in sentiment before price reacts.

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A hallmark of bull markets is a low Relative Unrealized Loss, typically <5%. This metric tracks the USD loss of all coins currently underwater, normalized by market cap.

The current bull market has held this structure since November 2023, making it more persistent than the equivalent phases in the last two cycles.

🔗 https://glassno.de/3L8BbSI

The Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) Oscillator continues to sit near cycle lows, indicating ample stablecoin liquidity relative to Bitcoin. Historically, such periods precede stronger bid-side support when market confidence returns.

🔗https://glassno.de/4osY1n7

Bitcoin’s cost basis distribution shows support near $111K and heavy supply around $117K.
This range defines the current battleground between recent buyers and profit-takers. A break in either direction could set the tone for the next major move.
🔗https://glassno.de/3WXsmOb

The bounce from $107k coincided with US Spot ETF netflows turning positive. However, inflows remain <1k BTC/day, significantly lower than >2.5k BTC/day seen at the start of major rallies this cycle.

Demand is recovering, but not at the intensity of recent rallies.

📈 https://glassno.de/4htoZIg

The Week On-Chain 43, 2025
Bitcoin remains stuck below key cost-basis levels as demand softens and long-term holders sell. Volatility is subdued but uneasy, leaving markets vulnerable to a hawkish Fed surprise.

Executive Summary
- Bitcoin’s weekend rebound from the $107K–$118K supply cluster mirrored previous post-ATH relief rallies, but sustained sell pressure from long-term holders has limited follow-through.
- The market continues to struggle above the short-term holders’ cost basis (~$113K), a critical battleground between bull and bear momentum. Failure to reclaim this level raises the risk of deeper retracement toward the Active Investors’ Realized Price (~$88K).
- Short-term holders are exiting at a loss, while long-term holders remain heavy net distributors (~–104K BTC/month), signaling waning conviction and ongoing supply absorption.
- Implied volatility has cooled sharply after October’s crash, with skew flattening and options flows reflecting controlled upside and measured downside hedging.
- The current calm in volatility hinges on the Federal Reserve’s next decision. A dovish outcome would preserve stability, but any hawkish surprise could reignite volatility and downside protection demand


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