#Bitcoin investors have realised large losses during this sell-off, with net daily losses between $600M and $875M/day.

Whilst these are significant sums, they remain small relative to $1B+ losses realised during the May-June capitulation, and the deleveraging of 4-December.

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As #Bitcoin trades below $40k, a key question is what are the primary forces driving the market lower?

To answer this, we investigate:
- Onchain and exchange flows
- Investor spending behaviour
- Futures leverage flush

Watch our latest video analysis: Surveying the 21-Jan Sell-off

#Bitcoin is down ~50% from the November ATH, making this the second deepest drawdown in this halving cycle.

Corrections in 2017, and early-2021 were much shallower between 20% and 40%, whilst July 2021 reached a drawdown of -54%.

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#Bitcoin bulls have been put firmly on the back-foot, with prices cut in half since the Nov ATH.

In our latest analysis we seek to define whether #Bitcoin has entered a prolonged bear, using investor psychology, behaviour, and network profitability.

Read our analysis in The Week On-chain

#Bitcoin Short-Term Holders are currently holding historically large unrealized losses.

The STH-NUPL metric tracks aggregate unrealized loss held by the STH cohort, in proportion to the market cap.

A value of -40% is coincident with some of the deepest sell-offs in history.

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With #Bitcoin trading down over 50% from ATHs, investor profitability has deteriorated, and heavy losses are being realized onchain.

In our latest video report, we demonstrate a suite of tools and historic patterns we use to navigate bearish conditions.

Watch out Video Report for Week 4

#Bitcoin transfer volumes continue to be dominated by institutional size flows, with more than 65% of all transactions being larger than $1M in value.

The uptrend in institutional dominance in onchain volumes started around Oct 2020 when prices were around $10k to $11k.

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Tracking #Bitcoin realized profit and loss provides insight into investor sentiment, and spending patterns.

We explore how tops, bottoms, and reversals can be identified using the realized profits and realized loss metrics.

Watch our 101 video guide here.

The bearish #Bitcoin trend continued last week, with prices briefly breaking below $33k.

Short bias has started to creep into both futures and options markets, whilst organic demand is slowly but surely picking up.

Read our analysis in The Week Onchain

#Bitcoin exchange balances have drawn down to multi-year lows, with a total of 42.9k $BTC in outflows since the Nov ATH.

This is very different in character compared to May 2021 where exchanges had 164k $BTC in net inflows

Read more in The Week Onchain

#Bitcoin has found upside relief, trading back above $38k, despite bearish headwinds

In this week's video report, we analyse:
- Growing short interest in futures and options
- Assess demand and accumulation
- Estimate fair value via network utility

Watch our video report for Week #5

#Bitcoin Liveliness is a macro metric which tracks coin dormancy vs coin-day destruction.

The current market is seeing a preference for HODLing, rather than spending. This leads to a downtrend in liveliness, typically seen within the context of bear market accumulation phases.

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We can identify #Bitcoin bull and bear cycles via analysis of one of the more fundamental sets of metrics: On-chain activity.

In this 101 session, we deep dive into navigating market hype cycles, and bear market lows using on-chain activity as a compass.

Watch our Video 101 here.

On 1-Feb, wallets associated with the 2016 Bitfinex hack spent over 94.6k $BTC, representing $3.67 Billion in value.

This is the largest #Bitcoin on-chain spend of 5yr+ funds in history, eclipsing the previous high of 71.8k $BTC from Jan 2019

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As #Bitcoin prices bounce off multi-month lows, we investigate likely driving mechanisms, and evaluate a number of floor price models for $BTC.

In this analysis we seek to assess whether a #Bitcoin bottom is in, or not.

Read more in The Week Onchain

After three months in a persistent downtrend, #Bitcoin has experienced a counter-trend rally, pushing above $44k.

Short liquidation dominance has also increased, suggesting that a short squeeze is a partial driver of the move.

Read more of our analysis in the Week On-chain

#Bitcoin prices have rallied back above $44k, after numerous fundamental metrics hit multi-year lows.

In this week's video report, we analyse whether a #Bitcoin bottom is in, and the bullish divergences forming in on-chain momentum.

Watch our analysis here

We have released a new on-chain 101 session discussing the #Bitcoin Reserve Risk oscillator.

We decompose this metric into each individual component:
- Market psychology
- Coin-day destruction
- Median Value of CDD
- HODL Bank

Watch our analysis here
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qfm_XB3fhF0

There are three #Bitcoin ETFs trading in Canada, collectively holding a total of 62,628 $BTC, equal to 0.33% of circulating supply.

The Purpose #Bitcoin ETF represents over 47% of these holdings, with 29,847 $BTC under management.

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Amidst macro headwinds, #Bitcoin investors have opted to close out leverage, buy put option insurance, and de-risk ahead of Fed rate hikes expected in March.

We also analyse whale, miner and investor on-chain supply dynamics to assess the prevailing accumulation and distribution trends. Finally, we introduce a number of #Bitcoin supply sinks including ETF holdings, wrapped $wBTC, and the coins held by the Mt Gox Trustee

Read more in The Week Onchain

The #Bitcoin market has matured significantly over recent years, with derivatives markets offering new instruments to hedge risk.

With Fed rate hikes expected in March, we explore how derivatives have impacted spot $BTC holdings.

Watch our video report here.