Tracking #Bitcoin realized profit and loss provides insight into investor sentiment, and spending patterns.

We explore how tops, bottoms, and reversals can be identified using the realized profits and realized loss metrics.

Watch our 101 video guide here.

The bearish #Bitcoin trend continued last week, with prices briefly breaking below $33k.

Short bias has started to creep into both futures and options markets, whilst organic demand is slowly but surely picking up.

Read our analysis in The Week Onchain

#Bitcoin exchange balances have drawn down to multi-year lows, with a total of 42.9k $BTC in outflows since the Nov ATH.

This is very different in character compared to May 2021 where exchanges had 164k $BTC in net inflows

Read more in The Week Onchain

#Bitcoin has found upside relief, trading back above $38k, despite bearish headwinds

In this week's video report, we analyse:
- Growing short interest in futures and options
- Assess demand and accumulation
- Estimate fair value via network utility

Watch our video report for Week #5

#Bitcoin Liveliness is a macro metric which tracks coin dormancy vs coin-day destruction.

The current market is seeing a preference for HODLing, rather than spending. This leads to a downtrend in liveliness, typically seen within the context of bear market accumulation phases.

Live Chart

We can identify #Bitcoin bull and bear cycles via analysis of one of the more fundamental sets of metrics: On-chain activity.

In this 101 session, we deep dive into navigating market hype cycles, and bear market lows using on-chain activity as a compass.

Watch our Video 101 here.

On 1-Feb, wallets associated with the 2016 Bitfinex hack spent over 94.6k $BTC, representing $3.67 Billion in value.

This is the largest #Bitcoin on-chain spend of 5yr+ funds in history, eclipsing the previous high of 71.8k $BTC from Jan 2019

Live Chart

As #Bitcoin prices bounce off multi-month lows, we investigate likely driving mechanisms, and evaluate a number of floor price models for $BTC.

In this analysis we seek to assess whether a #Bitcoin bottom is in, or not.

Read more in The Week Onchain

After three months in a persistent downtrend, #Bitcoin has experienced a counter-trend rally, pushing above $44k.

Short liquidation dominance has also increased, suggesting that a short squeeze is a partial driver of the move.

Read more of our analysis in the Week On-chain

#Bitcoin prices have rallied back above $44k, after numerous fundamental metrics hit multi-year lows.

In this week's video report, we analyse whether a #Bitcoin bottom is in, and the bullish divergences forming in on-chain momentum.

Watch our analysis here

We have released a new on-chain 101 session discussing the #Bitcoin Reserve Risk oscillator.

We decompose this metric into each individual component:
- Market psychology
- Coin-day destruction
- Median Value of CDD
- HODL Bank

Watch our analysis here
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qfm_XB3fhF0

There are three #Bitcoin ETFs trading in Canada, collectively holding a total of 62,628 $BTC, equal to 0.33% of circulating supply.

The Purpose #Bitcoin ETF represents over 47% of these holdings, with 29,847 $BTC under management.

Live Dashboard

Amidst macro headwinds, #Bitcoin investors have opted to close out leverage, buy put option insurance, and de-risk ahead of Fed rate hikes expected in March.

We also analyse whale, miner and investor on-chain supply dynamics to assess the prevailing accumulation and distribution trends. Finally, we introduce a number of #Bitcoin supply sinks including ETF holdings, wrapped $wBTC, and the coins held by the Mt Gox Trustee

Read more in The Week Onchain

The #Bitcoin market has matured significantly over recent years, with derivatives markets offering new instruments to hedge risk.

With Fed rate hikes expected in March, we explore how derivatives have impacted spot $BTC holdings.

Watch our video report here.

#Bitcoin hash-rate has continued to climb in 2022, pushing to a new ATH of 194EH/s on a 30-day moving average basis.

Application of a longer term moving average helps smooth out the natural variability in day-to-day block production times.

Live Chart

There are currently ~275k daily active entities on the #Bitcoin network.

This level of activity is far below bull market highs, indicative of tepid demand from new users.

However, the activity floor continues to climb in bearish markets, reflecting longer-term network effects.

#Bitcoin Short-Term Holders are the most likely cohort to spend their coins in response to volatility.

With weakness across #Bitcoin markets, we analyse STH behaviour from a number of angles, including on-chain activity, supply dynamics, and profitability

https://youtu.be/gIUGmrMJZhQ

#Bitcoin Short-Term Holders currently own 54.5% of all coins held at an unrealized loss (2.56M $BTC, creating sell-side headwinds for price.

Read our full analysis in The Week On-chain

With over 33% of $BTC supply held at an unrealized loss, and a large portion held by Short-Term Holders, #Bitcoin bulls are faced with numerous headwinds.

Watch our latest video report where we deep dive into the supply side risks observable on-chain.

#Bitcoin Realized Cap HODL Waves show the maturation of supply, related to its 'stored USD value'.

During past bears, 6-12mth supply peaked approx. half-way through the bear cycle.

We are now 90-days past the 6m-12m peak, with supply now maturing into the 1yr+ age band.

Live Chart

Part 1 of the #Bitcoin Bear Market Survival Guide is now available.

JoIn us to explore how we apply T1 and T2 on-chain metrics to navigate bearish market trends.

Watch our analysis here