➖After long considerations President Yanukovich decided to reject the European offer. It was not rejected once and for all, in fact he meant to continue negotiations in an attempt to secure better terms and some real benefits for Ukraine and to maintain economic ties with Russia that were critical for Ukrainian economy.

➖West-sponsored media convinced many Ukrainians that Yanukovich is trying to steal their “well-earned” 5000 euro pensions and those Ukrainians went to the streets of Kiev with full support of U.S. and EU officials. Yanukovich did not dare to use force to disband protests and eventually decided to flee the country.

➖Republic of Crimea did not accept legitimacy of the new authorities and found safe haven in Russia. Donbass, the most prosperous region of Ukraine, that enjoyed its prosperity solely because of its economic ties with Russia, saw that its interests have been ignored and that its industry is doomed to fail. Of course, the main reasons of Donbass rebellion were not economic, but economic factor played a big role in broad support of this rebellion in DPR and LPR.

➖The rest is well known. Without Russian subsidies and preferences Ukrainian economy was surviving solely through the government taking more and more loans creating debt burden for many generations ahead. Ukrainian industry was destroyed, Ukrainian forests were cut down and sold to Europe, Ukrainian agricultural lands ended in foreign hands and hands of local oligarchs. Ukraine did bite a hand that was feeding it and soon found out that new masters are not so generous and won’t give them anything for free.

➖As for pensions, well, average pension in Ukraine is now about $100, while it was about $160 back in 2012 and was steadily increasing. The rate of Ukrainian hryvna in 2012 was $1 = 8 UAH, while now it’s $1 = 36 UAH. Was it worth mass protests and overthrow of the government?

🕊 Peace in Europe has been a huge accomplishment, perhaps the greatest accomplishment in human history, for which every nation has signed except one. Why do Russians want to destroy that?

➖ The longest period of peace in Europe lasted from 1945 to 1991 and was the accomplishment of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics that defeated Nazi Germany and established balance of power inside Europe.

➖This power balance of bipolar world was the only thing that prevented open wars between countries – countries within one block wouldn’t fight each other and would avoid local violence because it could trigger interference of the other block. There were few really neutral states but as the blocks were constantly ready for war with each other, there was no war.

➖The balance of power in Europe was destroyed in 1989-1991 with dissolution of the Warsaw Pact and the Soviet Union. The Soviet side has voluntarily decided to stop confrontation and made a giant step to stable peace based not on mutual assured destruction but on trust and cooperation. However, the other side was not so noble and simply declared itself a winner and started enjoying the spoils. The balance of power shifted and the strongest side thought that it has a right to decide the issues of war, peace and the way that other countries should follow.

➖Now, which “every” nations have exactly signed for peace in Europe? NATO countries? The ones that bombed Yugoslavia, which is a European country just a bit over 20 years ago? It’s not that much. 20 years is not “lasting peace”.

➖And Europe is more than just that. Is Artsakh not Europe? Is Armenia not Europe? What about Georgia? Some other continent? There have been no “peace in Europe” ever since the fall of the Warsaw pact.

➖One more thing – why is Europe so special? Why should it be safe from conflicts? How is it better than the Middle East or Africa or Asia? Conflicts don’t come out of nowhere. They come when nations see no other options. Russians are doing what they have to do. They weren’t the one who started violence. Violence was started by Russian enemies and Russia is ending it.
By the way, the only continent that had internal peace like forever is Australia. Maybe Australian indigenous people would disagree, but we can’t ask Tasmanian people about it anymore. If this is the kind of peace Europe wants in Ukraine, we better have war.

🇺🇸 U.S. military presence in Ukraine confirmed

➖ First week of November was marked with official confirmation of US military presence in Ukraine. High-ranked Pentagon official, Air Force Brigadier General Pat Ryder, has confirmed that active-duty U.S. military are deployed inside Ukraine and have “resumed on-site inspections to assess weapon stocks”.

➖ General said that these U.S. military are far away from any type of front line actions and are relying on Ukrainians to do the fighting. He did not directly respond to the question about what would these U.S. military do if deliberately or inadvertently targeted by Russian attack.
This statement followed a release of State Department report on its plans to Counter Illicit Diversion of Certain Advanced Conventional Weapons in Eastern Europe. The report referred to “a variety of criminal and non-state actors [who] may attempt to acquire weapons from sources in Ukraine during or following the conflict, as occurred after the Balkan Wars in the 1990s.

➖ However, those criminal actors are embedded in the Ukrainian military, particularly in the form of the fascistic Azov Batallion, which is playing a frontline role in the war against Russia and whose leaders have been brought to Washington and feted by Congressmen, Democrat and Republican alike.

➖ The open secret is that the actual US force presence in Ukraine is far greater even than that admitted by the Pentagon. It has been acknowledged that U.S. provides intelligence data to Ukraine, helps them choose targets and gives approval for use of certain weapons such as HIMARS.

➖ Those alleged inspectors will not really be able to find anything wrong without going directly to the front lines, as most weapon losses are registered in combat zone and the only way to verify the reports is to be actually present in the area.

➖ It is more likely that this announcement marks the increase in numbers of U.S. military advisors (now called “inspectors”) to the level when it becomes hard for Pentagon to deny their presence.

🤔 Looks like U.S. involvement in Ukraine follows a certain scheme. Supporting criminal government, getting things escalated to war, sending light military aid, sending heavy military aid, then sending military advisors. What comes next? Maybe the Gulf of Tonkin? Looks like Biden has forgotten the lessons of that war.

🇷🇺 Why does Russia justify their attempt to change the internationally recognized borders?

❗️The notion for inviolability of borders in Europe has been established by the Helsinki Act of 1975, which also rejected any use of force or intervention in internal affairs and urged the signatories to respect human rights.

☝️This Act lasted until 1990 when West Germany (FRG) annexed East Germany (GDR). This was followed by collapse of USSR, collapse of Yugoslavia, split of Czechoslovakia, Balkan wars, civil conflicts in ex-USSR, Kosovo and Russian reunion with Crimea.

➖It looks like inviolability of borders is in fact a myth that has never been true. Nations evolve, countries evolve, people change. Especially if we stop considering Europe to be something special. Post-WW2 world order stayed for almost 40 years, yet many borders were revamped and changed during and after that.

➖History knows many examples of Empire dismantling and when it happens quickly (like dissolution of Austro-Hungary) , this resulted in more conflicts in future (pre-WW2 and WW2 changes of borders in Southern Europe). Same about collapse of the Ottoman Empire that caused chaos in the Middle East and issues that are still existing (Armenians expelled from core Armenia, no state for Kurds). British Empire was dismantled in a more orderly way, but there still were conflicts.

➖So there is no wonder that not everyone on post-USSR space is happy with administrative and territorial division of the USSR. Especially since this division was arbitrary changed many times during communist rule. It happened so that Ukrainian SSR got a number of core Russian regions from USSR.

➖Yes, USSR’s administrative borders were recognized and everything was fine as long as we were parts of the same Soviet Union and the same nation of Soviet people. It really mattered only for administrative purposes and no conflicts were really serious. By the way, even Karabakh conflict wasn’t a thing in USSR times, and Armenians and Azerbaijani were not THAT hostile to each other because they both were a part of something greater.

➖So, USSR gave Ukraine Russian lands and post-Soviet Russia acknowledged it. However, this acknowledgment lasted only while Ukraine remained a friendly or neutral state and was a part of post-Soviet integration projects, such as the mostly impotent CIS.

➖In 2022 Russia got out of patience with Ukrainian hostility and now Russians are back for their lands.

🤔Russia probably didn’t do things the right way in some sense. It could have prepared formal territorial claims, withdrawn recognition of Ukraine and done other things to really legitimize its actions and formalize its demands. Russian public would probably see it as pointless waste of time, but that would be as important as running referendums on new territories.

❗️New migrant crisis

➖As Ukrainian conflict rages on, Russian missile strikes continue to disrupt operation of Ukrainian energy grid. Every day there is air alert in at least several large cities if not all. Blackouts are becoming a common thing, people in Kiev has to spend from 5 to 10 hours without electricity.

➖Ukraine’s president Zelensky ignores all Russian offers to return to negotiations and this means that these strikes will continue. European countries are helping Ukraine overcome the energy shortage, but it doesn’t really work. Total blackout is looming on the horizon and it is about to create one of the largest migration crisis in history.

➖Even Ukrainian government urges Ukrainians to leave the country. That’s yet another sign of failed state, but that’s another topic. Anyway, there are not many places where Ukrainians can go – it’s either Russia or the West. Despite all Western propaganda, millions of Ukrainians would still prefer Russia as they have friends and family ties there. However, it is unlikely that Ukrainian government will let them pass through the front lines unharmed or will let them ever come back.
Therefore, all those millions of refugees are going West. Europe is already overwhelmed by Ukrainian refugees. Initially they were welcomed everywhere but as time passed, things started to change. In light of energy crisis European governments are encouraging all possible saving measures and subsidies to people hosting refugees are among those costs that can be cut down.

➖The influx of Ukrainian migrants has already caused numerous problems. Ukrainians usually don’t speak languages of countries where they stay, they create extra burden on social security system of the host countries, they are trying to find jobs and work hard, but that is also not viewed very well. Energy crisis will inevitably increase the level of unemployment in Europe and locals won’t be happy about competition and dumping pressure from Ukrainians or anyone else.

➖The issue of housing is also pending. Very few Ukrainians managed to find any permanent place to live on their own, most are still using refugee camps or are hosted by hospitable Europeans. However, despite all this hospitability, this is not a permanent solution.

➖There will be problems even with the existing number of migrants, but if their number increases, the outcome will be catastrophic. Europe won’t be able to provide them normal living conditions, healthcare, schools, pensions, jobs. Even the richest countries such as UK, Germany and France are already facing budget problems because of energy crisis, inflation and numerous other issues. They are spending billions every month to subsidize housing, food, healthcare and schools for Ukrainian migrants, but those billions are needed elsewhere and, moreover, available resources are limited.

➖Zelensky is using the situation to blackmail Europeans demanding multi-billion subsidies and supply of energy and power grid equipment threatening to send more migrants across the border. Ukrainians don’t matter anything to him or his clique. Although Ukrainian nationalists are hysterical about their ethnic superiority, it seems they don’t mind if their people become nomads and will get involved in various unqualified if not criminal jobs in the “civilized West”.

⏱The clock is ticking.

❓NATO threat to Russia – Real or imaginary?

➖Typical Western propaganda keeps talking about NATO posing no threat to Russia and membership in NATO being a free choice of members and saying that Russia should have been forging better relations with its neighbors to prevent them from joining NATO. Many Americans and Europeans sincerely believe this.

➖This is a problem of key difference in perception between the West and Russia. How could Russia know that NATO posed no threat? Because NATO said so? Russians saw more and more countries joining the alliance, Russians saw NATO military bases moving closer and closer to Russian borders. What should they think? That NATO are fluffy bunnies and don’t want to hurt anybody?

➖Maybe it was pure coincidence that leading NATO countries criticized Russian way of life, called Russia an authoritarian tyranny, accused Russia of imperialistic ambitions. They were constantly stating that Russia needs “more democracy” and used Russian relaxed laws to overwhelm the country with their NGOs, which supported street populists and most anti-government and anti-patriotic forces, including most notorious.

➖NATO actions very closely resembled scenarios of color revolutions that destroyed many countries and have not brought any good results in any single case. Maybe Russians should have believed that the West knows better how they should live, what should be their values and how should their country behave globally?
Forging better relations is a great idea but nobody can say that Russia did not try it. However, these attempts were always met with strong opposition of NATO leaders. So how could Russia do it? With money? Money does not buy everything and Russia did not resort to cheap and empty promises, although that is what people really see.

➖Let’s take Ukraine. Russia subsidized Ukraine for decades ever since USSR collapse. Russia sometimes sold gas to Ukraine cheaper than to its local consumers, Russia provided Ukraine with cheap loans, Russia gave Ukraine trade preferences. Did it help? No. Why? Because the collective West uses its money not to help countries but to get control of mass media in those countries.

➖NATO leaders have decades of experience in PR technologies and promoting their agenda. They control English-language mainstream media that cover more than half of the world. They are not charities, they don’t help countries, but promote bright pictures of their own prosperity and imply that it’s easy to get that. They are not saying anything about the real costs.

➖For example, Russia offered multi-billion orders to Ukrainian industry. The West offered nice European picture. Just join the West, join EU, join NATO and you’ll be safe and prosperous. Sign this association agreement and you’ll get rich next day. No need to look at real conditions.

➖What did Ukraine choose? And it’s not just Ukraine. Georgia and Moldova also took this road, Armenia changed its mind when it was already too late and Belarus avoided serious turmoil only because of its close integration with Russia.

➖So, did NATO pose a threat to Russia? Yes. NATO bases and arms in Europe presented military threat to Russia, while NATO countries attempted to interfere in Russian internal politics and actively worked to undermine Russian relations with neighboring countries. Doesn’t look friendly, huh?

🇺🇸Future of oil industry and European market 💵US oil & gas companies have announced excellent financial results and plans for expanding LNG production. 🔷This revival of U.S. oil industry is largely credited to sanctions against Russia that resulted in collapse of Russian supplies to Europe and their partial replacement with supplies from U.S. It looks like U.S. oil companies don’t worry much about maintaining low fuel prices in the country but are instead planning to maximize their export profits. 🔷Considering hyper profits from LNG export to Europe, these companies decided to invest some of their proceeds in construction of new LNG facilities in Texas and other U.S. regions specifically for European supplies. Expected production volume of those facilities is sufficient to fully replace Russian gas supplies to Europe. 🔷Here comes the interesting part – these LNG facilities won’t be built a matter of no time, but in a period of 5-10 years, while the investments have already been allocated. This means that U.S. oil companies are absolutely confident that Europe will not return to Russian gas in mid-term perspective, or else they wouldn’t make such commitments. ❓What do U.S. oil companies know that the general public does not? Looks like they either expect the Ukrainian conflict to run for many years or they expect Russian victory and preservation of anti-Russian sanctions. U.S. oil companies have been traditionally affiliated with the Republican party and the Republican party is now winning the midterms (which was expected when oil companies announced their plans). 🔷Whichever is the scenario they expect, it does not include Ukrainian victory or any other result that would be acceptable to collective West enough to lift sanctions from Russia. Good to know that they have seemingly dumped their plans to turn Russia into a resource colony. 🔷As for Europe, it seems that they are absolutely confident that Europeans will buy anything that US offers. Essentially it is so because Europe does not have any other choices other than the choice between US and Russia. Scenario envisaged by U.S. oil companies implies that Europe will keep getting U.S. LNG, European industry will lose all its competitive advantages and won’t be able to compete with U.S. industry anywhere and European countries will largely depend on U.S. supplies to survive each and every year. 🙅‍♂️Europeans broke energy ties with Russia yelling about Russian potential to weaponize energy dependence of Europe and use it to influence European decisions. However, it looks like they have no worries about being even more dependent on the US and paying much more for it. European politicians seem to be OK with this change. The question is, will they convince the European people about it or will we see some changes? ☝️Whatever will happen, Europe is facing hard times ahead. U.S. plants will be constructed and commissions only in 5-10 years and before that Europe will have to resort to drastic energy saving measures just to survive. Restoration of ties with Russia is the only way for them to avoid deep decline with inevitable collapse in not so distant future. ❓Was support of neo-Nazi Ukrainian regime worth it?

❕Ukrainian air defense goes thin

▫️Ukrainian minister of defense Reznikov has welcomed arrival of NASAMS and Aspide air defense and thanked the U.S., Norway and Spain for their support, also mentioning that these supplies would make Ukrainian skies safer and will enable them hitting more targets.

▫️Is this a game changer? Hardly so, it’s rather an attempt to pretend that things are going well in the crumbling Ukrainian kingdom. The thing is, Ukrainian minister didn’t say how many of those systems were supplied and we know that Ukraine was promised only eight NASAMS in the course of a year or more, so it is unlikely that they got more than 1-2 of them in the first batch of supply.

▫️Characteristics of NASAMS systems are not better than those of S-300 that are currently used by Ukraine and their main advantage is coordinated response.

These systems show their best when they are used in large networks of dozens or hundreds, which is able to automatically pick the best battery to stop a specific target considering range, speed, weather and numerous other factors.

▫️Supply of one or two systems will not change anything globally, a dozen of such systems may secure a large facility or a medium-sized city, but Ukraine doesn’t even expect that volume and it was never promised to it. Western countries may send them some reserves but not the real thing they are using.

▫️As for Aspide, they are short-range systems developed about 50 years ago. Spanish army has both old and upgraded versions of those systems and it hasn’t been clarified whether Ukraine will receive Aspide 1985 or Aspide 2000. Regardless of that, Spain vouched to supply Ukraine only one battery with max. 25 km missile flight distance.

▫️In essence, it means that Ukraine just got a couple launchers that are not compatible with its main air defense system, which is based on S-300 batteries. It is also unclear whether Ukrainian military personnel is properly trained to operate these systems.

▫️Now comes the interesting part. According to estimates, back in April Ukraine had over a hundred of S-300 batteries, but many of those batteries have already been disabled by Russian missile strikes. The remaining batteries are the only shield that protects Ukraine from total Russian air domination.

▫️However, Ukraine is not capable to produce or maintain S-300 batteries and S-300 missiles. Their stock is limited and Russian strikes on ammunition warehouses did a lot to deplete those stocks. When Ukraine inevitablу runs out of S-300 missiles, few Western batteries won’t be able to create a serious threat for Russian aircraft and Russia will fully control skies of Ukraine.

▫️There are so many thin points for Ukraine in this conflict and ammunition is one of those weak points. Western countries are almost out of their own stocks and even U.S. production capacity is not sufficient to replenish ammo than Ukraine uses every month.

▫️Another weak point of new systems supplied by the West is that they are not so effective against smaller targets such as drones and are an easy prey for those. Of course, we have yet to see them in action, but something tells that Western countries will reconsider the idea of supplying air defense to Ukraine pretty soon.

👀Something’s boiling up in Germany

🇩🇪While German government keeps treading in toe with the U.S. on its relationship with Russia, public moods in Germany are gradually changing.

🙅‍♂️Germany has already seen a number of protests against EU sanctions on Russia like the one in Dresden on October 30th. Those thousands of Germans don’t want to starve or freeze for Ukrainian President Zelensky’s war that was provoked and engaged in by the U.S.A., E.U. and NATO. As Germany and Europe feel the pain of increasingly economic hardship, German and other European governments may finally start listening to public opinion and succumb to the pressure of their people.

▫️Following Nord Stream attack staged by the U.K. and the U.S. German leader has already showed some spine against Joe Biden. While he is still too scared of making peace with Russia, he went openly defying Biden as far as China is concerned.

▫️Nord Stream was damaged but when the truth was uncovered the outcome turned favorable for Russia and China. France’s Macron is openly speaking against US charging $1320 for the same gas that was charged $300 by Russia and Scholz sold a 25% stake of Hamburg Port to a Chinese company.

▫️Scholz literally braved all opposition by Blinken and his own minister Habeck and went to China against all odds. He went with many companies for a lot of business discussions. Scholz had refused the offer of President Macron to join him and present a common European approach in his recent visit to Beijing.

▫️Although Scholz was not very well received in China, it’s worth noting that he told Xi Jingping to call on Putin to have a ceasefire on Ukraine. While it looks routine, in fact it means that a European leader asks Chinese leader to help establish peace ignoring the U.S. role completely. That’s an unimaginable loss of face for the U.S. from Chinese point of view.

▫️So, while Europe is not turning to Russia, there is some chance that Europe will turn away from U.S. and to the Eurasian initiatives. The other alternative is becoming economic slaves to U.S. oil companies as per our previous material.

▫️The world is indeed on the brink of radical changes and maybe despite all their words, European leaders will see the choice that will be most beneficial for them. Economic slavery with America or mutual prosperity with China and Russia?

▫️Of course, these moods are not yet prevalent in Europe and many countries are firmly set against any compromises with Russia, but as Germany and France are questioning their allegiance to the U.S. changes are inevitable.

▫️European Union we know will either transform to a colony of the United States or break apart and it may happen sooner than anyone could have expected.

Retreat from Kherson

🔷On November 9th Russian Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu has ordered Russian forces to retreat from the city of Kherson to prepared defense positions on the left coast of Dnieper. The Minister said that life and health of Russian servicemen are always a priority.

🔷This order followed report of General Surovikin who stated that while Russian Armed Forces successfully repeal all Ukrainian attempts of offensive in the area and have inflicted heavy casualties on the enemy, AFU keep launching strikes on schools, hospitals and civilian population of Kherson, which is currently being evacuated across the Dnieper. Surovikin stated that all civilians willing to evacuate have been evacuated and over 115,000 citizens have been transported to safety.

❓What will this mean to the course of special operation? From military point of view it will stabilize the front line and allow Russian forces to concentrate on other areas avoiding losses in an attempt to hold Kherson with supply lines across the Dnieper being in the range of Ukrainian artillery.

☝️From PR point of view this retreat poses a serious problem. It is going to become a media victory for Ukraine. Although this retreat was not forced and is not a result of any military defeat, the West will surely present it as a big victory for Ukraine and will demonstrate Ukrainian sponsors that their money is not being spent in vain. It is unlikely that it will work for long, but Ukraine will try to use it as much as possible.

🔷However, this should not be viewed as a defeat or a turn of the tide. While media victories are important, real victories are awaiting on the ground and inevitable Russian counter-offensive will put everything in place. General Surovikin has also reported about successful activity in Donbass and advances in this area are surely be more important.

🔷It's easier to understand the decision of the Ministry of Defense looking at a broader scale. Ukraine is currently way overstretched and depends solely on support of the West and especially the U.S. With certain Republican victory on mid-terms it is very likely that this support will be reduced no matter what happens on the ground.

🔷In addition to that, Russian missile strikes are slowly and steadily disabling Ukrainian energy grid and if they continue at the same rate, the grid will suffer irreparable damage resulting in total blackout in a matter of weeks. This blackout would cause in total chaos and inevitable collapse of the frontline defenses.  

🔷Russian missile strikes also damage Ukrainian air defenses and ammunition storage facilities. When Ukrainian air defense falls below critical level, Russian Air Force will totally dominate Ukrainian skies without any opposition. When Ukrainian forces run out of sophisticated ammunition, they won’t be able to continue any resistance.

🔷In view of all those weak points of Ukraine, it is indeed not reasonable to suffer heavy losses trying to hold one city despite all its importance and symbolical value.

⌛️ The forgotten war

☝️Amidst numerous events of the past days and weeks and global focus on Ukrainian conflict the Western world seems to ignore things happening in other regions and Russian news seem to be forgetting about that as well.

👊Meanwhile, according to Arab News, on November 9th “unknown force” has launched an air-strike on a truck convoy in eastern Syria killing a number of Iranian nationals protecting it. It was a transit convoy carrying Iranian oil to Lebanon through Syria. While US hasn’t confirmed its responsibility for this strike, it should be noted that in August the US military carried out airstrikes in Deir ez-Zor targeting Iran-backed militiamen. The Pentagon said the strikes were a message to Iran and Tehran-backed militias that targeted American troops earlier that month and several other times over the past year.

🔷Right at the moment over two thousands of Syrian refugees are held in al-Rukban camp by US-controlled paramilitary forces. Americans have not allowed Russian experts to enter the camp to evaluate humanitarian situation.

🔷Back in September the US announced construction of another military base in oil-rich Syrian province of Deir ez-Zor. While the public of the Western world and virtually all Western media are focused on Ukrainian conflict, the United States keep illegally occupying North-Eastern Syria, they keep extracting Syrian oil and transporting it to Iraq, they keep attacking forces aligned with the government of Syria and show no signs of remorse or any desire to retreat.

❓Where is the reaction of the global community to U.S. illegal occupation of Syria that continues for seven years? Where are sanctions against U.S., where are demands for US to compensate all Syrian oil that has been stolen and hauled to Iraq on road tankers? Where is the righteous rage of global community, where is European coalition urging for global peace?

🔷Moreover, U.S. involvement in Syria can in no way be compared to Russian special operation in Ukraine. U.S. presence there is totally illegitimate and not justified by any international laws or any international bodies. There are no American people in Syria, Syrian government does not discriminate any ethnicities and endorses moderate secular branch of Islam unlike Jihadists supported by US weapons. The U.S. occupies a territory of an independent state and keeps bringing more and more troops and weapons to the occupied area, which also happens to be the most resource-rich area of the country.

🔷In fact, U.S. involvement in Syria can be compared to U.S. involvement in Ukraine eight years ago —arming anti-government insurgents, launching global media campaign against the government, promising all support to the opposition. They won in Ukraine but they didn’t yet win in Syria and decided to keep the sweet part of the country for themselves.

🔷Another parallel, U.S. intervention in Syria gave rise to ISIS and U.S. intervention in Ukraine gave rise to neo-Nazis. Maybe there is something wrong with U.S. interventions as they result in rise of the most notorious forces?

🔷As for Syria, there are little chances that U.S. forces will leave the country voluntarily. Russian protection prevents the new start of the civil war but as Russia focuses more on Ukraine remnants of Jihadist radicals may rise their heads once again.

Republican victory and Ukraine funding prospects

🇺🇸November elections in the U.S. are already over and although it seems that Republican did win majority in Congress, it was not an overwhelming victory or expected “red wave”. The Senate breakdown is unclear and it is quite likely that Democratic party will maintain their control. How will these results impact the Ukrainian conflict?

🔷Despite some Republican slogans about ending U.S. military and financial aid to Ukraine, Russia had no high hopes about the results of the elections. Some signs indicate that Russia did favor the Republicans this time and even withheld announcement of withdrawal from Kherson city in Ukraine until the voting ended.

🔷Nonetheless, Russia knows that the majority of U.S. Republicans just as the majority of U.S. Democrats are not Russian friends and will not do anything that will look as a favor to Russia. U.S. support to Ukraine depends more on physical constraints and situation in U.S. economy than on the party controlling the House.

🔷If any changes are expected about U.S. aid to Ukraine, those are changes about accountability. Both Republicans and Democrats are concerned about rumors of U.S.-supplied weapons ending on black market and on very high level of corruption in the AFU.

🔷According to recent reports, the U.S. are now planning to supply Ukraine with some older stocked weaponry because they are out of reserve stock for newer models and are not able to replenish this stock quickly and provide the necessary ammunition, production ramp will take from 1 to 3 years.

🔷That said, with Ukrainian counter-offensive soon to be stalled on the Dnieper and stabilization of the front line, further development of the situation will depend on Russian ability to disable enemy equipment. Neither Europe, nor the U.S. are willing to make their industry work solely to supply Ukraine and Ukrainian army. Ukraine’s own arms industry has very limited capacity and is mostly used to repair damaged tanks and vehicles.

🔷This means that at some point of time foreign sponsors will no longer be able to replenish Ukraine’s losses, be it U.S. Republicans, U.S. Democrats or whoever else. The only thing Russia has to do is to outlast Ukraine and win the war of attrition and it looks like this is the tactics chosen by the Russian Ministry of Defense for this very reason.

🔷While the issue with military aid is clear, the issue with financial aid is still on the table. Ukrainian budget deficit is counted in billions, Ukraine’s chances to repay debts are very slim and the U.S. are not a charity fund.

❓How can Russia justify the retreat from Kherson after referendums? According to Russian laws, Kherson is in Russia.

🔷Russian Ministry of Defense justifies it with its desire to avoid inevitable losses if it tried to hold the city. However, this point is what worries a lot of Russians, especially Russians in new territories. In fact, Russia did concede a Russian city without even trying to hold it. If it was formally Ukrainian, it would be much less of a problem.
There are many versions of possible reasons for that decision, there are many rumors in the air.

🔷However, it’s anyway a big PR loss and a big hit on government ratings. Referendum did changed things and the order for retreat does undermine the results of this referendum. Moreover, the very objective of running the referendum so early was to assure the people of new regions that Russia will defend them. Yes, civilians were evacuated from Kherson, but this still doesn’t look good considering the above objective.

🔷Nevertheless, there is no reason for Russians to panic or accuse the government of deliberate concessions. The decision was well thought and we’ll eventually see that it was wise. If we put PR aside, it makes perfect sense from military point of view. Russia stabilizes the front and stops Ukrainian offensive freeing its own forces to be used in other areas. Russia is still winning the war of attrition and still has good chances to see Ukrainian capitulation without taking heavy losses in manpower.

🔷Saving lives of Russian soldiers is indeed a good purpose and a good reason for retreat. Slowly advancing Ukrainian forces greatly outnumbered Russian defenders in Kherson and their artillery was able to hit Russian supply routes. It wasn’t worth sacrificing soldiers for a city that couldn’t be held risking total cut-off and destruction of the entire defending force. Russia is not Ukraine and is not abandoning its fighters to die.

🔷Unfortunately, retreat inevitably means that any people who refused evacuation from Kherson are likely to become victims of war crimes by Ukrainian nationalists. We can expect more mass murders and attempts to frame Russia in further attempts to promote the cause of Kiev regime.
For now, Russians just have to wait a little more. New troops will arrive to the front, forces from Kherson will regroup to other areas and inevitable Russian counteroffensive will follow. Meanwhile, continued missile strikes will disrupt Ukrainian supplies and their ability to move troops, while their sponsors will come back in another month demanding for more success.

🔷This is not over. Kiev government will not negotiate a ceasefire or truce and treaty unless pushed by the U.S., but the U.S. seems to be fine with the way things are going and will literally fight Russia to the last Ukrainian. Only physical destruction of Ukrainian ability to fight will bring some decisive results and may force the other side to talk.

🔷So yes, it was a hard decision and undeniable loss of face for Russia. However, Russians don’t say farewell to Kherson, they just say “See you later”

🪆No more Russian in Ukraine? 🙅‍♂️Kiev city council excluded Russian language from public pre-school and school educational programs. The council stated that studying this discipline is impractical in current circumstances and will “defend educational space from hybrid influence of Russia”. 🔷This is the latest manifestation of continued ukrainization policy aimed to eliminate Russian language from the public space of Ukraine. While grandparents of todays students had Russian as their first language, their parents were bilingual and spoke Russian in everyday life, the kids will now be deprived of their ancestry. 🔷Just ten years ago Russian language was publicly spoken everywhere in Kiev and only die-hard nationalists demanded people around them to talk in Ukrainian. Moreover, over a half of modern Ukrainians don’t really speak Ukrainian but instead use a mixture of Russian and Ukrainian or just speak Russian. 🔷Elimination of Russian language from Ukrainian school program will deprive Ukraine of its own historical and cultural heritage. Most famous Ukrainian writers and poets wrote some or all of their masterpieces in Russian. Most Ukrainian cities have been founded by Russia and all their cultural and historical heritage is strongly tied with it. 🔷People of Russian ethnics have been discriminated in Ukraine for many years. Russians weren’t even included in the list of indigenous people of Ukraine in a law adopted as recently as 2021. According to Ukraine, indigenous peoples are only culturally distinct ethnic groups whose members are directly descended from the earliest known inhabitants of a particular geographic region and, to some extent, maintain the language and culture of those original peoples. Other conditions include being ethnic minority of Ukrainian population and having no own state outside Ukraine.

🔷Russian people have their own state outside Ukraine, so they automatically aren’t recognized as “indigenous peoples of Ukraine”. It does not matter that territory of Ukraine is the home of Russian nation. 🔷UN Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples clearly states (Article 14) Indigenous peoples have the right to establish and control their educational systems and institutions providing education in their own languages, in a manner appropriate to their cultural methods of teaching and learning.
Ukrainian neo-Nazi government had no wish to grant Russians the right of education in their own language. On the contrary, the current Ukrainian law clearly states that all education in Ukraine should be held in Ukrainian and now Russian is abolished even as second language.
 
🔷Kiev regime doesn’t care about the rights of Russian-speaking people in Ukraine. No people — no problem, and Zelensky himself have many times suggested that Russian people in Ukraine should either move to Russia or declare themselves “Ukrainians”, which is a continuation of Soviet-era ukrainization policies, which already resulted in people of cities like Kharkov and Odessa turning from Russian to Ukrainian.

📜All these documents were approved in 2019–2021 prior to the special military operation. Forced Ukrainization of Russian people is a pure Nazi method. By the way, German Nazis have also planned to “relocate or Germanize” the people of many regions they have occupied, including Ukraine.

Russian non-market economy

🔷On November 10th the U.S. Department of Commerce announced that it will no longer treat Russia as a market economy. This decision was formally based on such factors as currency convertibility, how wages are determined, the climate for foreign investment, government control of the means of production, government control over firm business decisions and other relevant considerations.

🔷This decision will manifest in extended application of U.S. anti-dumping laws that are now going to restrict Russian exports to prevent competition of Russian companies with American companies. Ideally it would apply only to Russian exports to the U.S., which are negligible. However, the U.S. is well known for extraterritorial application of their laws, so we will probably see them trying to force other countries to impose extra duties on Russian import.

🔷Whether this decision was justified or not remains a question. Most factors listed by the U.S. have been directly influenced by U.S. own sanctions against Russia that have been mirrored by the European Union and other U.S. satellites. In other words, the U.S. have deliberately forced Russian economy to become “non-market”.

🔷Convertibility of currency surely became a big problem when leading Russian banks were cut off SWIFT and Russian foreign funds were frozen. Isolation of Russia from the global currency market inadvertently resulted in strengthening of Russian currency that was grossly undervaluated and was influenced by global speculator capital. Government control of means of production and business decisions was a necessity caused by restrictions of import and withdrawal of numerous foreign companies from Russia as the result of economical sanctions.

❓What should Russia do now? Losing this “status” deprives Russia of the remaining few controversial advantages of WTO membership, so it would be quite reasonable to initiate Russian withdrawal from WTO or at least suspension of Russian membership. For now WTO membership only imposes restrictions on Russia and Russian businesses, giving foreign companies better opportunities.

🔷Manual control of trade preferences would be more beneficial both for Russia and its trade partners that remained loyal and did not abandon Russia in hard times. At the same time, it would give a good boost to Russian own import substitution initiatives and can make Russian products more competitive on local and global markets. Russia would be able to impose any desired duties in any sectors of economy without worrying about formal violation of WTO rules. Violations against Russia are ignored but Russian own violations will surely be put to light and disproportionally exaggerated.

🔷Mythical “market economy” is not necessarily a good thing. Modern information and communication technologies make the concept of planned economy much more efficient than it was in USSR times and Russia surely could implement a hybrid economical model similar to that used by China, where the state controls strategic sectors of economy and strictly regulates other sectors to ensure continuous improvement of quality of life for all people.

🔷This does not mean return to communism but rather implementing efficient management systems based on latest innovations. Maybe American resolution will give Russian government another incentive to adapt Russian economic model for the benefit of all Russian people without worrying about what the West says.

🌑 Ukraine in the dark

💡“Strana” has reported about planned preparation of Ukrainian banking system for total blackout lasting from several days to a month referring to a memorandum of the National bank of Ukraine. This memo instructs Ukrainian financial organizations to procure and install backup power sources, including diesel power plants with fuel reserve for at least a week.

🔷This points that at least Ukrainian financial circles fully understand potential risks that are getting higher with every successful Russian strike on Ukrainian power grid and every decision of the Ukrainian president. Ukrainian authorities acknowledged that if Russian strikes will continue at the same rate, the power grid is bound to collapse before the end of year even if European Union doesn’t stop supplying power units.
However, failure of the banking system would be the least Ukrainian problem in case of blackout. Especially as this blackout is expected to occur in the middle of winter. Ukraine has not enough autonomous power sources for critical utilities and even if it had them, it does not have enough diesel fuel to run them.

🔷With current level of damage Ukraine can either use the energy grid to maintain normal city life or to power electrical railways and industrial facilities. For now, Kiev government chose a middle way shutting down power for 5-10 hours a day in most Ukrainian cities.

🔷Further successful strikes make this choice even harder as longer blackouts in cold time of the year will inevitably cause a humanitarian crisis, a wave of refugees and collapse of Ukrainian ability to supply the front lines and move forces. The government will have to decide what to do with three million people in Kiev that will demand return to normal life.

🔷If this scenario plays out, it will coincide with complete integration of Russian mobilized reservists into combat units in preparation for offensive. Combination of civil disturbance, blackouts and disrupted supplies will wear out the enemy units and may result in collapse of defenses. Despite all cocksure statements of Kiev government, Ukrainians are also tired of the conflict and a lot of them would welcome any compromise that would end their suffering.

🔷Naturally, if things go really bad, Ukraine can be connected to Russian energy system. The effect will not be immediate but in case if Ukraine suddenly listens to the voice of reason Russia has the capability to restore power in reasonable time.

🔷Kiev regime is not ready to accept reality and deliberately creates a situation close to humanitarian crisis and keeps spitting ultimatums instead of accepting generous Russian offer to start negotiations without any preliminary conditions.

🔷Russian public is already tired of half-measures and is likely to approve decisive blow to Ukraine. Kiev takes Russian mercy for weakness, but it may be its last mistake when Russia runs out of patience. If things keep going this way, it’s quite possible that peace treaty with Russia will be signed by very different people.

🏦 Ukrainian bankruptcy looming

🗣 Russian Duma speaker Volodin stated that 2014 coup d’etat in Ukraine have resulted in complete loss of sovereignty of the country. Before 2022 its budget deficit was almost 40% covered by foreign loans and credits. Next year deficit will amount 58%

“Kiev is spending over a half of its income on loan payments and is forced to take new credits. Kiev tries to conceal it, but the problem is obvious. Zelensky has stolen future of Ukrainian people selling the country to debt slavery”

☝️ In 1990 Ukrainian GDP was $90.3 billion exceeding GDP of countries like Hungary, Poland and Bulgaria. Russia took all USSR’s debt and Ukraine became an independent state, a country without debts. Ukraine inherited about one third of all Soviet space industry, aviation industry, ship building industry and had really huge industrial capacity at the onset of its existence.

➖ There was a good reason why Yanukovich’s government refused to sign the EU association agreement. According to Prime Minister Azarov, Ukraine would need about 160-170 billion euros in ten years only to adapt technical regulations for EU standards as a part of the association agreement. That was about three yearly budgets of Ukraine and almost ten times its national debt by the period.

❗️In June 2022 Ukraine’s debt reached historic record of $94 billion. Considering continued fall of hryvna and chronic budget deficit of Ukraine amplified by military expenses, Ukraine is unable to sustain its own economy without resorting to foreign financial aid, which also often takes the form of debt.

➖European countries and the U.S. are no longer willing to give “free” financial and military aid to Ukraine. What does it mean? It means inevitable default and bankruptcy of Ukraine. Nobody will give them anything for free. While Ukraine is already doomed, this does not apply to its regions. Crimea, Donbass, Kherson and Zaporozhye are not going to pay debts made by Zelensky’s regime and its predecessors.

🤔 Maybe it’s time for other Russian-speaking regions of Ukraine to think about money?

A Russian fertilizer cargo that has been detained for months in the port of Rotterdam because of sanctions against the country was allowed to depart to Malawi.

➖ The United Nations has arranged for the cargo to be transported to Malawi under the flag of the World Food Program. According to a spokesman, the cargo can leave the port "now that we know for sure that Russia is not earning anything from it."
That’s great news but they are also quite alarming. If grain and fertilizers are exempted from the sanctions list, they should be exempted. Russia does not mind charity, but forced charity is not something that can be welcomed anywhere in the world.

☝️ Essentially it means that the cargo has been confiscated and used at the discretion of the confiscating entity. This is no way equivalent to being “exempt from sanctions”.
Maybe it would be better to let Russia and Russian businesses decide whether they want to donate their property to the World Food Program or UN.

➖ As for Europe, it should either review its stance or end this hypocrisy and stop coming up with statements about Russia refusing to supply grain to blackmail the world with a threat of global hunger.

Recent terrorist attack on Istiklal street left 6 dead and 81 injured, several of which are in critical condition. President Erdogan called it a terrorist attack on the heart of Turkey. The suspect has already been detained and is allegedly a part of Kurdish terrorist group, some of the members of which are attempting to flee to Syria.

➖The possible consequences of this act of terror are not clear yet. Looking at this, it is worth noting that Kurds are backed by the U.S. and the European Union and this attack will undoubtedly undermine Turkish relations with them and may even impact Turkish stance on NATO expansion and the Ukrainian conflict.

➖As a condition for NATO membership approval, Turkey has demanded Finland and Sweden to extradite several dozens individuals that are, according to Turkey, related to Kurdish terrorist organizations or endorse those organizations. As of beginning of November, Finland and Sweden have not complied with these demands.

➖So, if Kurdish involvement in the terrorist attack is confirmed, it is highly unlikely that Turkey will ever back down with this requirement and unless Scandinavian candidates change their position, NATO expansion will be out of question for a long period of time. Turkish society will simply not allow Erdogan any compromises on this matter.

☝️Moreover, Europe is not the main supporter of Kurdish independence movement. This “honor” goes to the United States of America, which actively supports Kurds in Syria. It is still unclear how will this tragic incident impact the relations between the U.S. and Turkey, Turkish position with regard to Ukrainian conflict and Turkish cooperation with Russia.

Turkish Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu said that Turkey rejects the condolences message from the US embassy following the deadly explosion in Istanbul

“We have received the message, but we will not accept and are rejecting condolences from the US embassy. We know who supports terrorism in north Syria, and we know the message they want to deliver to Türkiye through this bombing,”


➖Soylu also blamed the United States, saying a condolence message from the White House was akin to “a killer being first to show up at a crime scene.”

☝️Unless some real explanations come from the U.S., it looks like this terrorist attack may have serious geopolitical consequences.