TRUMP VS HARRIS Debate Ended: No Crypto Mention

*Trump odds down 3% on Polymarket & Predictit — Harris odds jumped 3%

*After Debate ended Harris campaign called for a second presidential debate in October

Taylor Swift Endorses Harris for President After Debate

*Taylor Swift: I will be casting my vote for Kamala Harris and Tim Walz in the 2024 Presidential Election.

August CPI

*MoM: 0.2% [Est. 0.2%, Prev. 0.2%]
*YoY: 2.5% [Est. 2.5%, Prev. 2.9%]
*Core MoM: 0.3% [Est. 0.2%, Prev. 0.2%] ⚠️
*Core YoY: 3.2% [Est. 3.2%, Prev. 3.2%]

*TRADERS BET FED TO START RATE CUTS WITH 25 BPS NEXT WEEK, SEE 100 BPS TOTAL OF RATE CUTS THIS YEAR

OpenAI Said To Discuss Raising Funds At $150 Billion Valuation - Bloomberg

*Set To Raise About $6.5 Billion From Investors
*Also Discussing Raising $5 Billion In Debt From Banks

*US JOBLESS CLAIMS 230K IN SEPT. 7 WEEK; EST. 227K
*US CONTINUING CLAIMS 1.85M IN AUG. 31 WEEK; EST. 1.850M

GOLD HITS NEW ATH

Grayscale will announce the launch of the U.S.’s first XRP trust, a so-called "closed-end" fund that will offer accredited investors direct exposure to XRP: Fox Business

*A trust and an ETF are two different investment products. An ETF must be approved by the SEC since it is marketed directly to retail investors, while a trust’s structure and sales pitch to so-called accredited investors gets a lighter regulatory touch. Even so, a trust can become an ETF with the right regulatory approvals; two of Grayscale’s single-asset investment trusts – bitcoin and ether – have evolved into ETFs this year.

eToro Reaches Settlement with SEC and Will Cease Trading Activity in Nearly All Crypto Assets except Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, and Ether: link

Justin Sun: cbBTC (Coinbase Wrapped BTC) lacks Proof of Reserve, no audits, and can freeze anyone's balance anytime. Essentially, it’s just 'trust me.' Any U.S. government subpoena could seize all your BTC. There’s no better representation of central bank Bitcoin than this. It’s a dark day for BTC.

Binance announced the 58th project on Binance Launchpool - Hamster Kombat (HMSTR): link

*Binance will list HMSTR at 2024-09-26 12:00 (UTC)

OpenAI releases o1 [The rumored ‘Strawberry’ model], its first Model with ‘reasoning’ abilities: link

TRUMP SAYS THERE WILL NOT BE ANOTHER DEBATE WITH KAMALA HARRIS.

We will see more SEC actions [Enforcement] [like the recent eToro Settlement] over the next few weeks, as the SEC’s fiscal year ends Sept 30: Blockchain Association, CEO

MicroStrategy acquired 18.3k BTC for ~$1.11B in cash at ~$60.4K/BTC between Aug. 6 and Sept. 12

Sam Bankman-Fried Files Appeal to Overturn Fraud Conviction

*JPMorgan Sees 50bps Easing by Fed Next Week

*Evercore Sees 50bps Easing by Fed Next Week

*Cit Sees 25bps Easing by Fed Next Week

*Goldman Sachs Sees 25bps Easing by Fed Next Week

*BofA Sees 25bps Easing by Fed Next Week

*Wells Fargo Sees 25bps Easing by Fed Next Week

**It is the first meeting in years where there's serious uncertainty about the rates decision

Officials believe the shots fired at Trump International Golf Club were intended for former President Donald Trump, according to sources familiar on the matter: CNN

FBI said it is investigating a possible assassination attempt on Donald Trump in Florida. A suspect was detained.

The Week Ahead | Q3 END | @infinityhedge

**A 36-hour monetary rollercoaster will start with the FED's probable decision to cut interest rates on Wednesday, and finish on Friday with the outcome of the BOJ’s first meeting since it raised borrowing costs and helped sow the seeds of a global selloff.

Macro:
*Lawsuit against TikTok ban set to begin on 16 [A court will hear arguments about whether the US GOV. can ban TikTok, based on evidence it doesn’t want anyone — including the social media company — to see]
*US: Fed Interest Rate Decision on 18 [25-vs-50 basis point rate cut discussion (50:50 odds, It is the first meeting in years where there's serious uncertainty about the rates decision)]
*Japan: Trade data on 18
*UK: BoE rate decision on 19
*US: Initial jobless claims on 19
*Japan: CPI on 20
*Japan: BoJ Interest Rate Decision 20
*China: loan prime rates on 20
*US Labor Department, BLS: State Employment & Unemployment, Monthly Report on 20
*US: GDP (QoQ) (Q2) on 26
*US: PCE on 27

Crypto:
*Trump's World Liberty Financial Project Launch on 16
*Sky [MakerDAO] to launch its new SKY governance token and USDS stablecoin on 18
*Terraform Labs's Chapter 11 bankruptcy reorganization hearing on 19
*Final SEC decision deadline for Bitcoin ETF Options is 21: infinityhedge
*Carolyn Ellison [former CEO of Alameda Research] is set to be sentenced on 24
*Hamster Kombat (HMSTR) TGE, Airdrop and exchange listings [Binance, etc] on 26
*Changpeng Zhao aka 'CZ' expected to release from prison on 29
*Uniswap v4's launch set for Q3

Events:
*Token2049 Singapore Event [18-19]: [Speakers: Vitalik Buterin, Charles Hoskinson, Anatoly Yakovenko, Richard Teng, Balaji Srinivasan, Snowden, Nic Carter, Eric Wall, Mert Mumtaz, Jason Choi, and Founders or CEOs: EigenLayer, Polymarket, Aave Labs, Ethena Labs, Electric Capital, infinityhedge?, Wintermute, DWF Labs, Circle, Chainlink, Monad, Render Network, Akash Network, Helium Foundation, Securitize, Polygon, NEAR, Curve, etc....
*Solana Breakpoint Event [19-21]
*European Blockchain Convention [25-26]

Token Unlocks: $700M-$800M [till month end]
⊷ ARB: $50M: 2.6% on 16
⊷ ID: $27M: 18.2% on 22
⊷ OP: $48.6M: 2.6% on 30
⊷ SUI: $70M: 3.2% on Oct. 1
**TIA: ~$850M: 83% of float on Oct. 30

**What Bloomberg Economics Says:
“We think Fed Chair Jerome Powell supports a 50-basis point cut. However, the lack of a clear signal from New York Fed President John Williams before the pre-meeting blackout period makes us think Powell doesn’t have the full committee’s support.”

Morning Update: Fed Funds Futures Now Show 58% Probability of 50bps Rate Cut vs 42% for 25bps

Earnings/Charts/Articles ⬎

*S&P 500 OPENS 0.1% LOWER, NASDAQ DOWN 0.7%

*APPLE DOWN 3.5%
*NVIDIA DOWN 3.5%
*COINBASE DOWN 4% *MICROSTRATEGY DOWN 5.5%

Market returns month before 50bps Fed Rate Cuts and after: @infinityhedge