The Week Ahead | Q3 END | @infinityhedge

**A 36-hour monetary rollercoaster will start with the FED's probable decision to cut interest rates on Wednesday, and finish on Friday with the outcome of the BOJ’s first meeting since it raised borrowing costs and helped sow the seeds of a global selloff.

Macro:
*Lawsuit against TikTok ban set to begin on 16 [A court will hear arguments about whether the US GOV. can ban TikTok, based on evidence it doesn’t want anyone — including the social media company — to see]
*US: Fed Interest Rate Decision on 18 [25-vs-50 basis point rate cut discussion (50:50 odds, It is the first meeting in years where there's serious uncertainty about the rates decision)]
*Japan: Trade data on 18
*UK: BoE rate decision on 19
*US: Initial jobless claims on 19
*Japan: CPI on 20
*Japan: BoJ Interest Rate Decision 20
*China: loan prime rates on 20
*US Labor Department, BLS: State Employment & Unemployment, Monthly Report on 20
*US: GDP (QoQ) (Q2) on 26
*US: PCE on 27

Crypto:
*Trump's World Liberty Financial Project Launch on 16
*Sky [MakerDAO] to launch its new SKY governance token and USDS stablecoin on 18
*Terraform Labs's Chapter 11 bankruptcy reorganization hearing on 19
*Final SEC decision deadline for Bitcoin ETF Options is 21: infinityhedge
*Carolyn Ellison [former CEO of Alameda Research] is set to be sentenced on 24
*Hamster Kombat (HMSTR) TGE, Airdrop and exchange listings [Binance, etc] on 26
*Changpeng Zhao aka 'CZ' expected to release from prison on 29
*Uniswap v4's launch set for Q3

Events:
*Token2049 Singapore Event [18-19]: [Speakers: Vitalik Buterin, Charles Hoskinson, Anatoly Yakovenko, Richard Teng, Balaji Srinivasan, Snowden, Nic Carter, Eric Wall, Mert Mumtaz, Jason Choi, and Founders or CEOs: EigenLayer, Polymarket, Aave Labs, Ethena Labs, Electric Capital, infinityhedge?, Wintermute, DWF Labs, Circle, Chainlink, Monad, Render Network, Akash Network, Helium Foundation, Securitize, Polygon, NEAR, Curve, etc....
*Solana Breakpoint Event [19-21]
*European Blockchain Convention [25-26]

Token Unlocks: $700M-$800M [till month end]
⊷ ARB: $50M: 2.6% on 16
⊷ ID: $27M: 18.2% on 22
⊷ OP: $48.6M: 2.6% on 30
⊷ SUI: $70M: 3.2% on Oct. 1
**TIA: ~$850M: 83% of float on Oct. 30

**What Bloomberg Economics Says:
“We think Fed Chair Jerome Powell supports a 50-basis point cut. However, the lack of a clear signal from New York Fed President John Williams before the pre-meeting blackout period makes us think Powell doesn’t have the full committee’s support.”

Morning Update: Fed Funds Futures Now Show 58% Probability of 50bps Rate Cut vs 42% for 25bps

Earnings/Charts/Articles ⬎

*S&P 500 OPENS 0.1% LOWER, NASDAQ DOWN 0.7%

*APPLE DOWN 3.5%
*NVIDIA DOWN 3.5%
*COINBASE DOWN 4% *MICROSTRATEGY DOWN 5.5%

Market returns month before 50bps Fed Rate Cuts and after: @infinityhedge

MicroStrategy to Raise $700M [upto $805M] in Convertible Notes to Refinance $500M Debt and Buy More Bitcoin

MicroStrategy Announces $700M Private Offering Of Convertible Senior Notes Due 2028: link

Don’t expect much from stocks for the next decade: JPMorgan

Crypto VC Fund Dragonfly Seeking to Raise a $500 Million Fund: Bloomberg

The firm has garnered $250 million so far and aims to close the fundraising by next year’s first quarter.

S&P 500 HITS NEW ATH

*S&P 500 BRIEFLY HIT NEW INTRADAY RECORD HIGH

CFTC IS SCRUTINIZING OFFSHORE BETTING PLATFORMS WITH US TRADERS: BBG

“If anyone, Polymarket or otherwise, conducts themselves in a way that breaks the law, we will use our civil enforcement authority to make sure that conduct stops”

SENIOR ISRAELI MILITARY OFFICIALS ARE PREPARING FOR A 3RD HEZBOLLAH WAR WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ALMOST IMMEDIATELY: ISRAELI CHANNEL 14

Context: Israel's Pager Attack On Hezbollah: link

*Pagers used by Hezbollah exploded near simultaneously in Lebanon and Syria on Tuesday, killing at least 9 people – including an 8-year-old girl & wounding more than 2,800

*This extraordinary networked attack in Lebanon exploited a zero-day vulnerability physically implanted into the pager devices together with explosives.

BlackRock and Microsoft plan $30B fund to invest in AI infrastructure: FT

*The Fund would be one of the biggest investment vehicles ever raised on Wall Street.

Most uncertain FOMC Meeting on record in 4hrs:

*Markets are pricing in a 60% chance of a 50bps rate cut, the most uncertain spread in over 15 years. However, economists are leaning towards a 25bps cut, with only 9 out of 114 economists polled by Bloomberg expecting 50bps and 113 expecting 25bps. Wells Fargo advises investors to look beyond the 25bps vs 50bps debate and instead prioritize the Fed's forward guidance. They argue that neither outcome would be shocking and point to minimal market reactions to similar scenarios in 2001 and 2007. Wells Fargo suggests keeping an eye on the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield as a key indicator.

Israel blew up thousands of personal radios (Walkie-Talkies) which were used by Hezbollah members in Lebanon in a second wave of its intelligence operation which started on Tuesday with the explosions of Hezbollah pager devices

Ethena frontend compromised ⚠️

Ethena: The Ethena domain registrar account was recently compromised and we have taken steps to deactivate the site until further notice.

The protocol is unaffected and funds are safe — Please do not interact with any site or application purporting to be the Ethena frontend.

**If you're connected, please refrain from signing transactions and disconnect your wallet immediately.

FED LOWERS INTEREST RATES BY 50BPS

*FED LOWERS BENCHMARK RATE 50 BPS TO 4.75%-5.0% TARGET RANGE

*FED SEES RATES AT 4.4% AT END OF 2024, 3.4% IN 2025

FOMC statement

*FED PROJECTIONS IMPLY 50 BPS OF ADDITIONAL RATE CUTS IN 2024 FROM CURRENT LEVEL, 100 BPS MORE IN 2025, ANOTHER 50 BPS IN 2026

*FED POLICYMAKERS SEE 4.4% UNEMPLOYMENT RATE AT END OF 2024 AND 2025 VERSUS 4.2% NOW

*FED POLICYMAKERS SEE 2.0% GDP GROWTH IN 2024 VERSUS 2.1% IN JUNE

POWELL: IF ECONOMY REMAINS SOLID, WE CAN DIAL BACK PACE OF CUTS; EQUALLY IF LABOR MARKET DETERIORATES WE CAN RESPOND

POWELL: NO ONE SHOULD LOOK AT 50BP CUT AND SAY THIS IS NEW PACE

POWELL: OWN SENSE IS WE'RE NOT GOING BACK TO LOW NEUTRAL RATE

POWELL: 'NO, WE'RE NOT' DECLARING VICTORY ON INFLATION

POWELL: FED WANTS TO SEE INFLATION CLOSE TO 2% FOR SOME TIME

From WSJ's Nick: It’s definitely a series of cuts, albeit a "recalibration," ahead: “We have in fact begun the cutting cycle now.” — The larger cut was mostly about risk management: “We don’t think we’re behind…. You can take this as a sign of our commitment not to get behind.” — The slowdown in the labor market “bears watching, and we’re watching.” — One note that wasn't unabashedly dovish: "It feels to me the neutral rate is probably significantly higher than it was back" before the pandemic, when it looked like the real neutral rate might be negative.

Reports: Reportedly Telegram Bot 'Banana Gun' Wallets Compromised — Team investing the issue, bot is currently offline.

*US JOBLESS CLAIMS 219K IN SEPT. 14 WEEK; EST. 230K
*US CONTINUING CLAIMS 1.829M IN SEPT. 7 WEEK; EST. 1.854M

S&P 500 OPENS 1.7% HIGHER, NASDAQ GAINS 2.3%

*APPLE +2%
*NVIDIA +4%
*COINBASE +6%
*MICROSTRATEGY +6%