U.S. 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD LIKELY TO CROSS 5% THIS YEAR, SAID 24 OF 36 BOND STRATEGISTS: REUTERS POLL
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*US DEC. PRODUCER PRICES RISE 0.2% M/M; EST. +0.3%
*US DEC. PRODUCER PRICES RISE 3.3% Y/Y; EST. +3.4%
*US DEC. CORE PPI UNCHANGED M/M; EST. +0.3%
*US DEC. CORE PPI RISES 3.5% Y/Y; EST. +3.8%
*US DEC. PRODUCER PRICES RISE 3.3% Y/Y; EST. +3.4%
*US DEC. CORE PPI UNCHANGED M/M; EST. +0.3%
*US DEC. CORE PPI RISES 3.5% Y/Y; EST. +3.8%
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infinityhedge
*US DEC. PRODUCER PRICES RISE 0.2% M/M; EST. +0.3% *US DEC. PRODUCER PRICES RISE 3.3% Y/Y; EST. +3.4% *US DEC. CORE PPI UNCHANGED M/M; EST. +0.3% *US DEC. CORE PPI RISES 3.5% Y/Y; EST. +3.8%
Components of PPI report that matters for PCE (FED's preferred measure of inflation)
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U.S. December CPI in 2hr 50min:
BBG ESTIMATES:
*headline: 2.9% Y/Y
*Headline: 0.3% M/M
*CORE CPI: 3.3% Y/Y
*CORE CPI: 0.3% M/M
*hot CPI number could further cement the idea that there will be no Fed rate cuts in 2025 and may even give rise to the possibility of a hike, whereas cool number might help calm market.
*S&P 500 Index is expected to move 1.1% in either direction, That’s the largest implied move ahead of a CPI print since the regional bank turmoil in March 2023.
Note: While the PPI was below expectations on Tuesday, some components from the PPI that feed into the PCE were firm in December, namely a big increase in domestic airfares. Though Looking back at 10 years of history: When headline and core PPI both fall short of expectations---CPI for the same month has come in hot only 21% of the time.
*Bitcoin-Nasdaq 100 correlation is at the highest since 2022.
BBG ESTIMATES:
*headline: 2.9% Y/Y
*Headline: 0.3% M/M
*CORE CPI: 3.3% Y/Y
*CORE CPI: 0.3% M/M
*hot CPI number could further cement the idea that there will be no Fed rate cuts in 2025 and may even give rise to the possibility of a hike, whereas cool number might help calm market.
*S&P 500 Index is expected to move 1.1% in either direction, That’s the largest implied move ahead of a CPI print since the regional bank turmoil in March 2023.
Note: While the PPI was below expectations on Tuesday, some components from the PPI that feed into the PCE were firm in December, namely a big increase in domestic airfares. Though Looking back at 10 years of history: When headline and core PPI both fall short of expectations---CPI for the same month has come in hot only 21% of the time.
*Bitcoin-Nasdaq 100 correlation is at the highest since 2022.
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*US DEC. CORE CPI RISES 0.2% M/M; EST. +0.3%
*US DEC. CORE CPI RISES 3.2% Y/Y, EST. +3.3%
*US DEC. CONSUMER PRICES RISE 0.4% M/M, EST. +0.4%
*US DEC. CONSUMER PRICES RISE 2.9% Y/Y; EST. +2.9%
*US DEC. CORE CPI RISES 3.2% Y/Y, EST. +3.3%
*US DEC. CONSUMER PRICES RISE 0.4% M/M, EST. +0.4%
*US DEC. CONSUMER PRICES RISE 2.9% Y/Y; EST. +2.9%
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*TREASURY YIELDS FALL AFTER CORE CPI RISES LESS THAN ESTIMATED
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*TRUMP'S SEC TO OVERHAUL CRYPTO POLICY, MAY FREEZE ENFORCEMENT: RTRS
*In the first few days of the new administration, the SEC is expected to begin a review of those court cases and potentially freeze some litigation that does not involve allegations of fraud, said two of the sources. Some of those cases could eventually be withdrawn.
*In the first few days of the new administration, the SEC is expected to begin a review of those court cases and potentially freeze some litigation that does not involve allegations of fraud, said two of the sources. Some of those cases could eventually be withdrawn.
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POPULAR SHORT SELLER 'HINDENBERG RESEARCH' SHUTS DOWN: LINK
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James Seyffart (ETF Research analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence) on Altcoin ETFs in 2025: Blockworks
*James Seyffart said that SSAs with exchanges like Coinbase, Kraken, could satisfy the SEC's concerns about market manipulation, but the SEC has historically leaned on futures markets for approval and also SEC have lawsuits against these exchanges.
*He also said their are no SOL ETF deadlines because the SEC just didn't acknowledge filings so they basically denied them outright. He suggested that a change in SEC leadership, particularly under a potential Trump administration, could expedite the process. However, he cautioned against overly optimistic market expectations, noting that even with a more crypto-friendly SEC chair like Paul Atkins, the approval process could take until 2026. While he believes the approval of altcoin ETFs is a matter of "when, not if," he does not guarantee it will happen in 2025.
*He pointed out that if issuers file much of Solana ETF filings right after Gary Gensler steps down and a new administration takes office, the SEC's acknowledgment of these filings within a couple of weeks could provide a clearer timeline for approval. However, he questioned whether the SEC would prioritize these filings while other divisions still have open cases labeling these assets as securities. SEC might drop lawsuits against exchanges or settle them, which could pave the way for a more favorable regulatory environment. This would depend on the new leadership's willingness to resolve these legal disputes and align the SEC's internal divisions.
*Seyffart also highlighted the irony of SEC Chair Gary Gensler’s past involvement in teaching blockchain and crypto at MIT, contrasting it with his stringent regulatory stance under the Biden administration. He predicted that while a new administration might reduce regulatory headwinds, it won’t be a "free-for-all," as the SEC will still target bad actors and enforce rules.
*On 2025 Outlook: He predicts trump will repeal SAB 121 and US will not sell any more of BTC they currently holds. (He is less optimistic on the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, He don't think Reserve helps all that much)
*James Seyffart said that SSAs with exchanges like Coinbase, Kraken, could satisfy the SEC's concerns about market manipulation, but the SEC has historically leaned on futures markets for approval and also SEC have lawsuits against these exchanges.
*He also said their are no SOL ETF deadlines because the SEC just didn't acknowledge filings so they basically denied them outright. He suggested that a change in SEC leadership, particularly under a potential Trump administration, could expedite the process. However, he cautioned against overly optimistic market expectations, noting that even with a more crypto-friendly SEC chair like Paul Atkins, the approval process could take until 2026. While he believes the approval of altcoin ETFs is a matter of "when, not if," he does not guarantee it will happen in 2025.
*He pointed out that if issuers file much of Solana ETF filings right after Gary Gensler steps down and a new administration takes office, the SEC's acknowledgment of these filings within a couple of weeks could provide a clearer timeline for approval. However, he questioned whether the SEC would prioritize these filings while other divisions still have open cases labeling these assets as securities. SEC might drop lawsuits against exchanges or settle them, which could pave the way for a more favorable regulatory environment. This would depend on the new leadership's willingness to resolve these legal disputes and align the SEC's internal divisions.
*Seyffart also highlighted the irony of SEC Chair Gary Gensler’s past involvement in teaching blockchain and crypto at MIT, contrasting it with his stringent regulatory stance under the Biden administration. He predicted that while a new administration might reduce regulatory headwinds, it won’t be a "free-for-all," as the SEC will still target bad actors and enforce rules.
*On 2025 Outlook: He predicts trump will repeal SAB 121 and US will not sell any more of BTC they currently holds. (He is less optimistic on the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, He don't think Reserve helps all that much)
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Phantom Wallet Raises $150 Million At $3 Billion Valuation: BBG
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ETHBTC RATIO PLUNGES TO 0.03, LOWEST IN NEARLY 4 YEARS
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TRUMP'S WORLD LIBERTY FINANCIAL BOUGHT $20M ETH: ARKHAM DATA
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TRUMP MEMECOIN CRASHED 50% AFTER MELANIA TRUMP'S MEMECOIN LAUNCH
*TRUMP'S OFFICIAL ACCOUNTS REPOSTED MELANIA MEMECOIN LAUNCH POST
*TRUMP'S OFFICIAL ACCOUNTS REPOSTED MELANIA MEMECOIN LAUNCH POST
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