*Q2 2025 CIRCLE EARNINGS:
*REV: $658M
*NET INCOME (LOSS): $482.1M

*CIRCLE TO LAUNCH 'ARC', LAYER-1 BLOCKCHAIN FOCUSED ON STABLECOINS

ARC features:
-USDC as native gas
-Arc is EVM-compatible
-Opt-in privacy: Selectively shielded balances & txns so users and enterprises can stay compliant with their own obligations
-Arc is based on Malachite’s high-performance consensus engine.
-Arc will enter private testnet in the coming weeks. Public testnet is expected this fall and mainnet beta in 2026. Visit arcnetwork.xyz to request early access.

U.S. JULY CPI:

Forecast:
*headline: 0.24% vs 0.29% M/M prev.
*headline: 2.8% vs 2.7% Y/Y
*Core CPI: 0.31% vs 0.23% M/M
*Core CPI: 3.1% vs 2.9% Y/Y

SPX rxn on Core MoM:
> 0.35%: -0.2% to -2.7%
0.3-0.35%: ±0.25%
< 0.30%: +0.5% to +2%

*Hot CPI: rate-cut hopes goes down, with stagflation fears
*Cool CPI: september cut odds will increase

ICYMI:
*China Urges Firms to Avoid Nvidia H20 Chips
*Monero faces chain reorganization fears after Qubic says it controls 51% of hashrate but their is a lack of transparency from Qubic, it also stopped reporting its Monero mining pool hashrate so overall making it hard to verify the claim.

*US JULY CONSUMER PRICES RISE 0.2% M/M; EST. +0.2%
*US JULY CONSUMER PRICES RISE 2.7% Y/Y; EST. +2.8%
*US JULY CORE CPI RISES 3.1% Y/Y; EST. +3.0%
*US JULY CORE CPI RISES 0.3% M/M; EST. +0.3%

*Note that the y/y core CPI has now rose to 3.1%, And Powell has been saying that policymakers are focused on 12-month inflation. So, not a good sign.

*Wilson-Elizondo of GS says: Tariffs have yet to drive substantial price increases, as companies continue to offset cost pressures by drawing down inventories & adjusting prices cautiously due to perceived consumer price sensitivity. In essence, this inflation print supports the narrative of an insurance rate cut in Sept, which will be a key driving force for the markets.

UBS: Tariffs appear to be passing-through, but perhaps a bit more slowly than expected.

BofA: CPI data don't meaningfully change the balance of risks for the Fed. .. markets have interpreted today's data as dovish. We prefer to wait for the PPI data to draw strong conclusions on July inflation.

CHINA ORDERED TECH COMPANIES INCLUDING BYTEDANCE, ALIBABA, AND TENCENT TO SUSPEND THEIR PURCHASES OF NVIDIA CHIPS OVER SECURITY CONCERNS - THE INFORMATION

CHINA REGULATOR TOLD COMPANIES NEW CHIP PURCHASES TO BE SUSPENDED UNTIL IT CONCLUDED AN INVESTIGATION INTO POTENTIAL SECURITY RISKS - THE INFORMATION

TRUMP: I AM CONSIDERING ALLOWING A MAJOR LAWSUIT AGAINST POWELL TO PROCEED OVER FED BUILDING COSTS

GOOGLE PLAY STORE BANS UNLICENSED CRYPTO WALLETS, FORCING AML/KYC ON NON-CUSTODIAL APPS IN US AND EU: THERAGE

*NEW GOOGLE PLAY STORE POLICY NOW REQUIRES FINCEN REGISTRATION, STATE BANKING LICENSE, OR MICA LICENSE FOR NON-CUSTODIAL WALLETS

*A DE FACTO NON-CUSTODIAL WALLET BAN IN THE EU

GOOGLE: NON-CUSTODIAL WALLETS ARE NOT IN SCOPE OF GOOGLE PLAY’S CRYPTOCURRENCY EXCHANGES AND SOFTWARE WALLETS POLICY. WE ARE UPDATING THE HELP CENTER TO MAKE THIS CLEAR.

BITCOIN HITS NEW ATH

US TREASURY SECRETARY BESSENT ON BITCOIN RESERVE: NOT GOING TO BE BUYING BITCOIN, WILL USE CONFISCATED ASSETS

BESSENT: BITCOIN RESERVES ARE WORTH AROUND $15B TO $20B

BESSENT: I DOUBT WE ARE GOING TO REVALUE US GOLD HOLDING

BESSENT: WE ARE GOING TO RETAIN GOLD AS A STORE OF VALUE

*US JULY PRODUCER PRICES RISE 3.3% Y/Y; EST. +2.5%
*US JULY PRODUCER PRICES RISE 0.9% M/M; EST. +0.2%
*US JULY CORE PPI RISES 0.9% M/M; EST. +0.2%
*US JULY CORE PPI RISES 3.7% Y/Y; EST. +2.9%

*US wholesale inflation accelerated in July by the most in three years, boosted by a surge in margins that indicates companies are not absorbing higher import costs related to tariffs.

BIG DAY TODAY: @INFINITYHEDGE

<US Retail Sales>
Consensus:
Retail sales: 0.5% vs 0.6% Prev.
ex-autos: 0.3% vs 0.5%
Core: 0.4% vs 0.5%

BofA:
Retail sales: 0.8%
Core: 0.6%

GS:
Retail sales: 0.5%
Core: 0.4%

*UMich Consumer Sentiment
*SEC Chair to discuss Project Crypto (8:30 AM)
*Sharplink Gaming earnings
*World's first humanoid robot sporting event started in China

<Trump-Putin Summit> 3:30PM ET
Possible Outcomes:
*Talks break down: 10%
*Ceasefire deal but Ukraine unlikely to accept: 32%
*Status quo remains: 41%
*Ceasefire deal, follow-up meeting with Ukraine: 15%
*Framework for a peace deal: 2%

2Q 13F Filings: <INFINITYHEDGE>
*Hedge fund holdings of Microsoft grew by $12B to $47B in the three months ending June 30.
*Meta was cut/reduced by 147 investors (biggest); Amazon was increased/bought by 177 investors (biggest).
*Saudi wealth fund sold its stakes in Meta, Shopify, Alibaba and PayPal. *Bridgewater exited all US-listed China stocks
*Warren Buffett’s Berkshire, Renaissance Technologies, Burry, David Tepper & many other bought shares of UnitedHealth Group.
*Berkshire sold 20M shares of Apple.

ICYMI: </INFINITYHEDGE/>
*China’s economy slowed across the board in July
*Goldman Sachs estimates that consumers absorbed just 22% of tariff costs through June, but it could rise to 67% and US businesses will absorb less than 10%.
*Cardboard box sales fell to the lowest Q2 reading since 2015. Companies don’t yet know how the tariffs will affect costs & long-term demand for their finished products, and they’re not stocking up on bulky packaging.
*Terraform co-founder Do Kwon pleads guilty to wire fraud & conspiracy to defraud.
*Justin Sun hold more than 60B TRX tokens out of the total supply of 94.6B. Sun also owns 90% stake in HTX crypto exchange.

*US JULY RETAIL SALES RISE 0.5% M/M; EST. +0.5%

*US JULY RETAIL SALES RISE 0.5% M/M; EST. +0.5%
*US JULY RETAIL SALES EX-AUTO RISE 0.3% M/M; EST. +0.3%
*US JULY RETAIL SALES EX AUTOS, GAS RISE 0.2% M/M; PREV. 0.6%
*US JULY RETAIL 'CONTROL GROUP' SALES RISE 0.5% M/M; EST. +0.4%

REVISIONS (JUNE 2025):
*HEADLINE: 0.6% → 0.9%
*EX-AUTO: 0.5% → 0.8%
*CONTROL GROUP: 0.5% → 0.8%

TRUMP FAILED TO SECURE UKRAINE DEAL AT ALASKA SUMMIT WITH PUTIN

TRUMP: BIG PROGRESS ON RUSSIA. STAY TUNED!

The Week Ahead: infinityhedge | Big Week for powell

Mon:
*Trump to host Zelenskyy and EU leaders at the White House (focused on security guarantee type for ukraine)
*Saylor expected to announce another BTC purchase

Tue:
*Xiaomi report earnings
*A New York Court hearing on Hayden Davis’s LIBRA scandal
*Wyoming Blockchain Symposium, speakers include Fed’s Bowman, Paul Atkin

Wed:
*‘Made by Google’ Event
*China loan prime rates
*Baidu reports earnings
*FOMC meeting minutes
*Fed’s Waller speaks at Wyoming Blockchain Symposium
*Wyoming's stablecoin ‘WYST’ launch at Wyoming Blockchain Symposium.

Thu:
*U.S. Jobless Claims, Manufacturing PMI, home sales
*Walmart reports earnings
*The annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium begins

Fri:
*Japan reports CPI
*Germany Q2 GDP
*Fed Chair Powell’s keynote address at the Jackson Hole (expected to unveil the Fed’s new policy framework & he may also drop some hints about the Fed’s thinking ahead of its Sept. policy meeting). Powell has the opportunity to settle the speculation with his speech at the annual Jackson Hole. Last year, he used the gathering of central bankers to telegraph that the Fed was ready to cut rates. But the circumstances are different, and we don’t think he’ll be as frank this year: BE

Sun: Ukraine Independence Day

TBA/Whole Week: MetaMask might release (plans) new stablecoin ‘mUSD’ & DeepSeek-R2 might (maybe) launch

</INFINITYHEDGE/>: https://infinityhedge.substack.com/p/the-7-days-1e9

*FED: MAJORITY SAW INFLATION RISK OUTWEIGHING EMPLOYMENT RISK

*FED: SEVERAL FLAGGED RISK OF INFLATION EXPECTATIONS UNANCHORING

*FED: SEVERAL NOTED CONCERNS ABOUT ELEVATED ASSET VALUATIONS

*FED: MANY NOTED FULL EFFECT OF TARIFFS COULD TAKE SOME TIME

*FED: SEVERAL EXPECTED COMPANIES WOULD PASS TARIFFS TO CUSTOMERS

BIG DAY TODAY: @INFINITYHEDGE

*Fed Chair Powell speech at the Jackson Hole (10 AM)

*Trump Announcement at 12 PM

Previews on Powell's Speech:
*WSJ (Nick Timiraos): Fed officials are preparing to quietly retreat from a signature policy innovation unveiled five years ago. In 2020, officials revamped their approach to setting rates, focusing on the risks brought on by near-zero interest rates and low prices. Today, officials are preparing to scrap that approach, now viewed as no longer relevant when facing the opposite problem of high and more volatile inflation. The 2020 changes involved two main shifts. First, the Fed said it would allow inflation to run modestly above its 2% target for periods to make up for times when it had fallen short. Second, officials said they would focus only on the unemployment rate being too high, rather than also worrying about the rate being too low, removing some urgency to pre-emptively raise rates and prevent the economy from running too hot. Officials have signaled they are likely to back off from the more ambitious employment goal that returns the Fed to some version of the framework that existed before the more novel changes.

*UBS: Powell may deliver a retrospective “exit” speech, potentially disappointing those looking for dovish signals.

*JPM: there are no expectations for Powell to divulge any material info...we look for stagflation evidence to flip our view to bearish.....Fed’s decision on a Sept cut(s) is dependent on the Sep 5 NFP and Sep 11 CPI prints, Jackson Hole is shaping up to be inconsequential.

*GS: expect Powell to modify his statement from the July FOMC press conference that the FOMC is “well positioned” to wait for more information. Instead, he might note that the FOMC is well positioned to address risks to both sides of its mandate but emphasize that downside risks to the labor market have grown following the July employment report, while reiterating that tariffs are likely to have only a one-time effect on the price level. We do not expect him to decisively signal a Sept. cut, but the speech should make it clear to markets that he is likely to support one.

*GS: On the framework review, we expect the FOMC to partially reverse some of the changes it made in 2020, as it has foreshadowed in the minutes to its recent meetings. Specifically, we expect the FOMC to return to saying that it will respond to “deviations” from maximum employment in both directions rather than just to “shortfalls” or to at least water down the shortfalls language and to return to flexible inflation targeting (rather than flexible average inflation targeting) as its main strategy while retaining the option to use a make-up strategy at the zero lower bound.

*Barclays: believes markets are overly confident in expecting a Sept. cut, and while they see the decision as a close call, the banks baseline remains that the next cut will happen only in Dec.

*FT's Jackson Hole speech: https://www.ft.com/content/3090312e-4f45-4dfb-a006-318575f2a599

ICYMI: </INFINITYHEDGE/>
*Nvidia orders suspension to H20 chip production; Shares of China’s leading AI chipmakers, surged to a record after DeepSeek unveiled an updated model that would be compatible with Chinese-made chips.
*China considering yuan-backed stablecoins to boost global currency usage; latest plans come after a Shanghai regulator last month said it had held a meeting for local gov officials to consider strategic responses to stablecoins and digital currencies.
*Trump suggested that he’s open to Ukraine launching more attacks on Russia.