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infinityhedge
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Sources: infinityhedge, BBG, RTRS, DB, X, TREE, PN, CT, etc

Admin: @infinityhedge21

X: @infinityhedge07

The info provided is for info purposes only, not financial advice.
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*TETHER TO LAUNCH U.S.-REGULATED STABLECOIN CALLED USA₮, APPOINTS FORMER WHITE HOUSE OFFICIAL BO HINES AS CEO OF USA₮

*TETHER'S USA₮ WILL USE HADRON TECHNOLOGY

*USA₮ WILL BE ISSUED BY ANCHORAGE DIGITAL BANK UNDER GENIUS ACT

*CANTOR FITZGERALD WILL ACT AS THE DESIGNATED RESERVE CUSTODIAN AND SERVE AS PREFERRED PRIMARY DEALER
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The Week Ahead: infinityhedge

Mon: Saylor expected (might) announce another BTC purchase

Tue:
*U.S. retail sales
*South Korea will end its 2018 Ban on crypto firms VC funding (also South Korea caps crypto lending at 20% interest, bans leveraged loans)

Wed:
*Trump visits UK; Nvidia’s Huang, OpenAI’s Sam Altman, Blackstone CEO and BlackRock’s Larry Fink will also be joining Trump
*BOC meeting, cut expected
*FOMC meeting (25bps cut expected, cut for the first time in 9months, a 50bps cut would signal that Fed is worried about the economy), we will also get updated dot plot & Economic Projections; market focus will focus on any dissent & what powell says about future rate cuts.
BE: We expect the FOMC to cut rates by 25 basis points. That won’t be because economic data on both sides of Fed’s mandate – price stability and full employment – warrant it. Rather, the markets expect a rate cut, the White House wants it — and we think Powell is doing what he sees as needed to fend off further threats to the Fed’s independence.

Thu:
*Meta developer conference, Mark Zuckerberg key note; will discuss smart glasses & AI
*Bytedance’s deadline to sell TikTok or face a US ban
*BOE meeting, expected to leave rates unchanged
*MKR-SKY Upgrade Deadline
*REX-Osprey Dogecoin ETF ‘$DOJE’ expected to begin trading

Fri: BOJ meeting, expected to leave rates unchanged

ICYMI:
*China ruled that Nvidia violated anti-monopoly laws with a high-profile 2020 deal, also it will investigate the company further; Over the weekend, China also said it launching an anti-dumping investigation targeting a type of semiconductor made by US companies.

https://infinityhedge.substack.com/p/the-7-days-4f9
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*JESSE POLLAK SAYS BASE EXPLORING LAUNCH OF NETWORK TOKEN

*BASE ALSO LAUNCHED NEW BRIDGE BETWEEN SOLANA AND BASE
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CHINA ISSUES MEASURES ON BOOSTING SERVICE CONSUMTPION

CHINA TO ATTRACT MORE FOREIGN VISITORS, GRADUALLY EXPAND UNILATERAL VISA-FREE COUNTRIES

CHINA TO EXTEND BUSINESS HOURS FOR TOURISTS SITES, MUSEUMS

CHINA TO ENCOURAGE INTRODUCTION OF OVERSEAS SPORTING EVENTS

CHINA TO PROMOTE ORDERLY OPENING UP IN SECTORS INCLUDING INTERNET, CULTURE

CHINA TO REDUCE RESTRICTIVE MEASURES, ATTRACT MORE FOREIGN INVESTMENT, PRIVATE INVESTMENT

CHINA TO SUPPORT FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS IN INCREASING CREDIT SUPPLY TO THE CONSUMPTION SECTOR

CHINA TO ISSUE 5-YEAR MULTIPLE-ENTRY VISAS TO MORE ELIGIBLE PERSONS

CHINA TO OFFER INTEREST SUBSIDIES FOR CONSUMER LOANS
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CHINA ORDERS COMPANIES TO STOP BUYING ALL OF NVIDIA'S AI CHIPS AND TERMINATE THEIR EXISTING ORDERS.

*NOT JUST H20 CHIPS, CHINA NOW PUTTING PRESSURE ON COMPANIES TO STOP BUYING ALL NVIDIA CHIPS
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FOMC PREVIEW:

↳ The Fed is widely expected to cut rates by 25bps.

↳ The Fed will also release their quarterly update of economic and rate forecasts.

↳ All eyes will be on tone of Powell’s press conference, any Dissent and the “dot-plot” projections.

VIEWS:
↳ Fawad Razaqzada: Market be watching how the market reacts to any mention of inflation being ‘well anchored’ or the labor market ‘cooling more than expected, That sort of language would be music to the ears of dollar bears. On the flip side, a cautious Fed that hints at a ‘wait and see’ approach might stall the rally, at least temporarily.

↳ Standard chartered: expect 50bps cut, Powell is unlikely to be forthcoming on further easing, dot-plot to suggest an additional 25bps cut this year but just one 25bps cut in 2026.

↳ BBG: expect 25bps cut. That won’t be because economic data on both sides of Fed’s mandate – price stability and full employment – warrant it. Rather, the markets expect a rate cut, the White House wants it — and we think Powell is doing what he sees as needed to fend off further threats to the Fed’s independence. Economists surveyed by BBG largely expect two rate cuts for this year. That would imply only one more cut after this week’s meeting, either in October or in December.

↳ WSJ: investors will be focused on how many members support three rate cuts this year or stick with the two cuts that a slim majority anticipated when the labor market looked sturdier in June.

↳ Goldman Sachs: Expect the FOMC Statement to Acknowledge the Slowdown in Job Growth but Do Not Expect a Change to the Policy Guidance or a Nod Toward an October Cut; Dot-plot to show 2 cuts in 2025 & 2 cuts in 2026; 25bp cuts in Oct, Dec; 50bp possible if jobs worsen; FOMC projections slightly more dovish than market pricing.

↳ JPMorgan: 2–3 dovish dissents for 50bp+. Sees 25bp cuts Oct & Dec, then pause.

*The Fed has cut rates with equity markets within 1% of ATH 16 times in its history. S&P 500 was higher a year later every single time with an average return of nearly 15%.
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FED LOWERS BENCHMARK RATE 25 BPS
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*FED SAYS GOVERNOR MIRAN DISSENTS IN FAVOR OF HALF-POINT CUT
*FED MEDIAN PROJECTION SHOWS 50 BPS MORE RATE CUTS IN 2025
*FED SAYS DOWNSIDE RISKS TO EMPLOYMENT HAVE RISEN

*FED PROJECTIONS SHOW 9 OF 19 OFFICIALS SEE TWO ADDITIONAL CUTS IN 2025, TWO SEE ONE CUT, SIX SEE NO MORE REDUCTIONS
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FOMC STATEMENT
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*RUSSELL 2000 RISES 2%, ON TRACK FOR FIRST RECORD SINCE 2021
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*POWELL: COULD THINK OF TODAY'S CUT AS A RISK MANAGEMENT CUT
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POWELL PRESS CONFERENCE SUMMARY: <@INFINITYHEDGE>

*POWELL: RISKS TO LABOR MARKET WERE FOCUS OF TODAY'S DECISION

*POWELL: COULD THINK OF TODAY'S CUT AS A RISK MANAGEMENT CUT

*POWELL: DON'T FEEL NEED TO MOVE QUICKLY ON RATES

*POWELL: RISKS TO INFLATION TITLED TO UPSIDE; EMPLOYMENT RISKS TO DOWNSIDE

*POWELL: BASE CASE IS TARIFF IMPACT ON INFLATION SHORT-LIVED

*POWELL: TARIFF INFLATION PASSTHROUGH HAS BEEN SLOWER SMALLER; EXPECT TARIFF-DRIVEN PRICE INCREASES TO CONTINUE THIS YEAR AND NEXT YEAR

*POWELL: CERTAINLY POSSIBLE TARIFFS ARE IMPACTING LABOR MARKET; WOULDN'T SAY ALL OF JOB MARKET SLOWING IS FROM TARIFFS

*POWELL: BEYOND IMMIGRATION, THERE IS CLEARLY A SLOWING IN LABOR DEMAND

*POWELL: REVISED JOBS NUMBERS MEAN LABOR MARKET NO LONGER SOLID

*POWELL: ANNUAL JOBS REVISION ALMOST EXACTLY WHAT WE EXPECTED: INFINITYHEDGE

*POWELL: AI MIGHT BE PART OF THE STORY IN HIRING SLOWDOWN; AI LIKELY ISN'T MAIN DRIVER OF TOUGHER JOB MARKET

*POWELL: PEOPLE AT JOB-MARKET MARGINS STRUGGLING TO FIND JOBS

*POWELL: YOU'VE GOT A LOW HIRING LOW FIRING ENVIRONMENT

*POWELL: LABOR RISKS SUGGEST WE SHOULD BE MOVING TOWARD NEUTRAL POLICY

*POWELL: BALANCE SHEET IS STILL IN ABUNDANT RESERVES CONDITION

*POWELL: DATA THIS WEEK SHOWS CONSUMPTION STRONGER THAN EXPECTED

*POWELL: CONSUMER DEFAULTS TICKING UP NOT TERRIBLY CONCERNING

*POWELL: HOUSEHOLDS AND BANKS ARE IN GREAT SHAPE

*POWELL: DON'T SEE ELEVATED STRUCTURAL VULNERABILITIES IN FINANCIAL SYSTEM

↳ BI: POWELL’S OPENING REMARKS WERE EVEN MORE DOVISH THAN LAST YEAR, WHEN THE FED CUT BY 50 BPS
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*GOLD FUTURES REACH RECORD HIGH OF $3,800
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TRUMP: MAKE CRIME ILLEGAL AGAIN!
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The Week Ahead: infinityhedge

Mon:
*61k BTC Fraud Trial to Begin in London, case expected to set precedents for how authorities in the UK handle compensation
*SEC & CFTC Roundtable
*Saylor expected announce another BTC purchase
*Trump Meeting congress as US Shutdown Nears
*Swift's Sibos Event (Chainlink, Digital Assets Lead at GS, Consensys)

Tue: US fiscal year ends
*FTX to Distribute $1.6b to Creditors
*Trump to attend gathering of top generals, Hundreds of top military officers have been summoned on short notice in a massive military event for a speech by Hegseth
*Strategy’s preferred stocks to pay cash dividend
*US JOLTs
*Starknet‘s BTC staking goes live

Wed:
*US ADP, ISM Manufacturing PMI
*US Gov will shut down if Congress cannot reach a funding agreement before 11:59pm. Potential shutdown could delay gov data, incl. NFP
*180 days *NOT official but deadline for the Order that called Bessent & Lutnick to find budget-neutral strategies for acquiring BTC, Also In response to a Request filed by TheRage, US Treasury discloses that it has still not received reports on agency authorities to transfer assets to the Digital Asset Stockpile aka No significant Progress On Strategic Reserve yet.
*US Senate Banking Committee to hold a crypto tax hearing; VP of tax at Coinbase to testify

→TOKEN2049: OKX MAIN STAGE:
↳Tom Lee at 10:10am
↳DeFi’s Next Chapter at 10:50am (Jeff Hyperliquid, Stani Founder Aave, Guy Ethene, Haseeb)
↳World Liberty Financial at 2pm
↳Tether CEO at 3:10pm (local time)
↳Macro & Crypto (Goldman Sachs) at 3:30pm
↳Tokenization at 5:35pm
↳Other speakers: Monad, MegaETH, GoogleCloud, etc
→BINGX STAGE:
↳ETH 2026: Next Year of Goals at 11:20am
↳Institutional Crypto at 2pm
↳Anza at 2:40
*MEXC STAGE:
↳DOUBLE THREAT: Quantum & Treasury Bubble at 10:45am
↳Will Clemente, CL (cat) at 11:30am

Thu:
→TOKEN2049: OKX MAIN:
↳Robinhood CEO with BBG TV at 9:10am
↳AI, Crypto at 9:30am (Emad Mostaque, Tarun Chitra)
↳Charles Hoskinson at 10:10am
↳Jesse Pollak at 10:30am
↳Head of Crypto Kalshi, Head of Crypto PayPal, VP Robinhood Crypto at 10:50am
↳Tether in America at 2pm
↳ETH’s Next Frontier at 4pm
↳Justin Sun at 5:10 pm
→BINGX STAGE: DePIN at 2pm

Fri:
*US Non Farm Payrolls; BE expects NFP to add a net 54k jobs.
*US ISM Services PMI

*Whole Week: Putin to deliver major speech, US Gov Shutdown, Volmex & Monad(?) announcement at TOKEN2049 & Sumud Flotilla seeking to break Israel’s blockade of Gaza will reach this week, Spain send warships to protect Flotilla: @infinityhedge

https://infinityhedge.substack.com/p/the-7-days-884

ICYMI:
*Swift to launch blockchain with 30+ banks incl. JPM, HSBC & BofA. The first prototype focuses on real-time, 24/7 cross-border payments using tech from Consensys.
*Tether evaluating raising ~$20b for roughly 3% stake through private placement. SoftBank & Ark are in talks
*Coinbase & Cloudflare will launch x402 Foundation. x402 protocol embeds payments directly into web interactions using HTTP "402 Payment Required" status code, enabling AI agents, APIs, & apps to transact seamlessly. Cloudflare also launching NET, a dollar-backed stablecoin for the "agentic web."
*ME's largest institution QNB switched to JPM's blockchain for US dollar corporate payments: infinityhedge
*SEC, Finra contacted 200+ companies that announced DATs, raising concerns about unusually high trading volumes & price gains before announcements. SEC warned companies about potential violations of Regulation Fair Disclosure, rule prohibits companies from selectively disclosing material to investors
*SEC fast-tracking Trump’s proposal to allow companies with option to report on a semi-annual basis
*HSBC's quantum computing pilot with IBM delivered 34% improvement in predicting bond trading prices. "Is this a 'Sputnik moment' for quantum? My instinct is yes," said HSBC's head of quantum
*October historically shows 33% aboveavg volatility. GS notes it's a critical period for year-end performance management. Market is pricing in 8% Q3 earnings growth, expectations seen only twice in 30years (1999, 2021), both before selloffs.
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PUTIN: SOME PEOPLE ARE PREPARING NUCLEAR TESTS - IF THEY DO A TEST, WE WOULD ALSO TEST
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DISCORD DATA BREACH ⚠️

*Discord experienced a security incident on sept 20, involving its customer service platform. This incident resulted in the exposure of users' names, usernames, email addresses, limited payment info, IP addresses, messages exchanged with customer service and a small number of government-ID images from users who had appealed an age determination (EU).
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ROBINHOOD DOWN
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*SPOT GOLD RISES ABOVE $4,000 AN OUNCE FOR THE FIRST TIME
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