two Major events this week (Bitcoin ETF & NFP)

When 95% of traders are anticipating a sell the news event, it's almost always going to opposite of it.

Sell the news happens when it's unexepected..

The Bitcoin ETF Clear Picture:

The SEC is expected to approve a Bitcoin spot ETF around January 10, 2024, following the approval of a futures ETF. This comes after the SEC's loss in a US court ruling regarding the conversion of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) to an ETF, signaling a shift towards favoring spot ETFs.

Over the past two years, the SEC has held frequent meetings with Wall Street's ETF companies, discussing the specifics. This suggests a reluctance to outright reject the idea, considering the extensive dialogue with major wealth managers.

The appeal of a Bitcoin ETF lies in its liquidity and volatility, which are attractive to ETF brokers for generating fees and managing assets. This is akin to profiting from selling tools and supplies during a gold rush.

Many baby US investors in the US, now middle-aged or older and holding significant wealth, are interested in Bitcoin but deterred by the technical complexities of purchasing and securing it. Additionally, regulatory policies prevent some wealth institutions from directly buying Bitcoin. An ETF offers these groups a way to indirectly invest in Bitcoin and participate in its value fluctuations.

Furthermore, a US Bitcoin spot ETF would allow global investors to contribute funds, potentially enabling the US to attract more capital, which could align with its interests.

Different firms Bitcoin targets.

think Bitcoin won't see a new ATH this year.

Old-dino coins will continue to make moves, even reaching new ATHs.

New stuff will add more growth and hype in crypto, including Celestia, ZKs (Zero-Knowledge Proofs), Roll-ups, Solutions etc.

$1.7 billion in hacks occurred last year, in 2023. Infrastructure attacks and code exploits were prevalent.

That's where a lot of projects could focus this year, especially on the security side/backends.

(re-calling)

New coins, full of hope, lacking bagholders, and with a team still not rich and incentivized to create hype.

new run new coins, People forget about the old stuff, people tend to forget about the older IPhone model when the next one comes out...

Many projects are/will be closing funding rounds. Scanning for projects with good potential could fall under that category, especially those with strong teams that are not hyped enough.

A friend from the 2018 run, who shares very in-depth insights and shares real-time thoughts (totally free), can be found at https://news.1rj.ru/str/moonbagsnotes.

$XAI airdrop (official announcement pending) but got some insight

25% of addresses may receive less than or equal to 290.319 $XAI.
50% of addresses (median) may receive less than or equal to 290.3 $XAI.
75% of addresses may receive less than or equal to 1307.18 $XAI.

The market is reacting to news that the SEC might reject the Bitcoin ETF, as evidenced by the price action

Suits are testing liquidity [with the rejection news coming from their end.]

They're frontrunning the holders, u can sell on this news & they can continue the run forward with the ETF.

Volatility is what they thrive on, benefiting from fees, spreads, and margins.

While half of the crowed was discussing the SEC ETF,

someone else was buying clips of $BTC valued at approx. $400m+. during yest dip.

Including a couple of fresh wallets as well, could be insider buying in anticipation of positive news from the SEC.

Justin Sun withrew 11266.61 ETH from Binance ($25,266,275)..

What changed in the last 3 years? The market is still trading on positive average funding rates,

while a few coins on Binance saw extreme negative funding rates, ex, $TRB, $ETC,

And these coins made new all-time highs and were fully manipulated price-wise, actively by cartel.

Funding rate heatmap 3-years.

Something changed in the last 3 months: the market went heavily long into perps coins, causing some spikes and shakeouts, and a notable OI wipe lately.

perps Liquidations... 2y

Looks like it;'s DWF received $PORT3 tokens

0xA75b66dC806AA1EeddC28Bd92c476769c118caED

Today 7 exchanges will launch it simultaneously.The project has been in operation for more than 2 years, and the speculative institutions are all top-notch in the circle (Binance Labs, DWF Market Maker, Jump Capital, Kucion, etc.)

Binance's recent listings' perf % worth adding to the watchlist, along with Launchpad coins. Tokens from Binance's Launchpad often perform better compared to tokens that lack substantial liq.

discus

ETF Fees..