Morning Bites
🚘The growth rate of global EV sales (passenger cars and light-duty vehicles) accelerated to 49% YoY in May, from 33% YoY in April, according to Rho Motion. This was mostly driven by sales in China, which increased 105% YoY in May (vs. 45% YoY in April), as the country recovers from COVID lockdowns. However, in the US & Canada, EV sales rose only 13% YoY in May (vs. the 27% YoY growth in April). At the same time, EU & UK EV sales were up a slight 5% YoY in May, after being flat YoY in April. We note that growing global EV sales supports the demand for battery metals (nickel, lithium and cobalt)
📌Turkey’s finished steel production fell 1.4% YoY in May, reversing from the 1.6% YoY growth in April. However, domestic steel consumption recovered slightly, rising 0.7% YoY in May after the 1.2% YoY decline in April. Turkey’s steel imports dropped 22.7% YoY, while steel exports fell 23.6% YoY in May, partially due to the manufacturing slowdown in the EU
#EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt #steel
🚘The growth rate of global EV sales (passenger cars and light-duty vehicles) accelerated to 49% YoY in May, from 33% YoY in April, according to Rho Motion. This was mostly driven by sales in China, which increased 105% YoY in May (vs. 45% YoY in April), as the country recovers from COVID lockdowns. However, in the US & Canada, EV sales rose only 13% YoY in May (vs. the 27% YoY growth in April). At the same time, EU & UK EV sales were up a slight 5% YoY in May, after being flat YoY in April. We note that growing global EV sales supports the demand for battery metals (nickel, lithium and cobalt)
📌Turkey’s finished steel production fell 1.4% YoY in May, reversing from the 1.6% YoY growth in April. However, domestic steel consumption recovered slightly, rising 0.7% YoY in May after the 1.2% YoY decline in April. Turkey’s steel imports dropped 22.7% YoY, while steel exports fell 23.6% YoY in May, partially due to the manufacturing slowdown in the EU
#EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt #steel
Morning Bites (part 1)
🚘Preliminary data suggest a 17% YoY decline in new car registrations in France, the UK, Spain, Italy and Germany in June (vs. 13% YoY drop in May). In Germany and France, car sales fell 18% YoY and 14% YoY, respectively. Italy car registrations were down 15% YoY, while Spain vehicle sales decreased 8% YoY. UK vehicle sales declined 24% YoY. Since these 5 countries accounted for 70% of total new vehicle sales in Europe in 2021, this means that EU + UK car registrations continued to fall in June. If car sales continue to decline at current rates, Pd market surplus might be 10% of demand in 2022. The full results for June registrations are to be published on 15 July
📌Chile’s copper output fell 3% YoY in May (vs. 10% YoY drop in April). The decline rate might have decelerated due to improved copper demand outlook as China lifted lockdowns. Given Chile accounts for 28% of global copper supply, the country’s copper output recovery might be negative for copper prices
#cars #copper
🚘Preliminary data suggest a 17% YoY decline in new car registrations in France, the UK, Spain, Italy and Germany in June (vs. 13% YoY drop in May). In Germany and France, car sales fell 18% YoY and 14% YoY, respectively. Italy car registrations were down 15% YoY, while Spain vehicle sales decreased 8% YoY. UK vehicle sales declined 24% YoY. Since these 5 countries accounted for 70% of total new vehicle sales in Europe in 2021, this means that EU + UK car registrations continued to fall in June. If car sales continue to decline at current rates, Pd market surplus might be 10% of demand in 2022. The full results for June registrations are to be published on 15 July
📌Chile’s copper output fell 3% YoY in May (vs. 10% YoY drop in April). The decline rate might have decelerated due to improved copper demand outlook as China lifted lockdowns. Given Chile accounts for 28% of global copper supply, the country’s copper output recovery might be negative for copper prices
#cars #copper
Morning Bites (part 2)
🏦Global central banks remained net purchasers of gold in May, buying 32t (vs. 20t of net purchases in April). The biggest buyer was Turkey, buying 13t of gold in May and 6t in April. For the second consecutive month, the biggest seller was Germany, which sold 2t of gold in May and 1t in April. Central banks’ positive net purchases might be supportive for gold prices
#gold
🏦Global central banks remained net purchasers of gold in May, buying 32t (vs. 20t of net purchases in April). The biggest buyer was Turkey, buying 13t of gold in May and 6t in April. For the second consecutive month, the biggest seller was Germany, which sold 2t of gold in May and 1t in April. Central banks’ positive net purchases might be supportive for gold prices
#gold
Morning Bites
📉CISA mills’ daily crude steel output declined 7.0% in late June from the second ten days of the month. This represented a 7.3% YoY drop (vs. the 5.7% YoY decline in mid-June). According to market sources, the steel output reduction might have been caused by weak demand from the construction sector and the high level of finished steel stockpiles. Meanwhile, steel inventories fell 17.4% from 20 to 30 June (but were still up 23.1% YoY). That was apparently, due to the decrease in steel output
🌧Heavy rainfall in Australia has affected coal mining areas in New South Wales and Queensland. According to CRU, coal shipments from major Queensland ports fell 13.5% WoW and might decline further in the coming weeks. Given that Australia accounts for some 50% of coking and 20% of thermal coal exports globally, this might further support coal prices
#steel #coal
📉CISA mills’ daily crude steel output declined 7.0% in late June from the second ten days of the month. This represented a 7.3% YoY drop (vs. the 5.7% YoY decline in mid-June). According to market sources, the steel output reduction might have been caused by weak demand from the construction sector and the high level of finished steel stockpiles. Meanwhile, steel inventories fell 17.4% from 20 to 30 June (but were still up 23.1% YoY). That was apparently, due to the decrease in steel output
🌧Heavy rainfall in Australia has affected coal mining areas in New South Wales and Queensland. According to CRU, coal shipments from major Queensland ports fell 13.5% WoW and might decline further in the coming weeks. Given that Australia accounts for some 50% of coking and 20% of thermal coal exports globally, this might further support coal prices
#steel #coal
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Morning Bites (part 1)
🚘US light vehicle sales fell 14% YoY in June, with the rate of decline decelerating from 30% YoY in May. The seasonally-adjusted sales declined 15% YoY in June (vs. the 25% YoY decrease in May). As previously, the drop came on the back of the shortage in automotive parts and surging inflation. Decreasing car sales are negative for PGM demand
🚙China has announced plans to support EV demand. In particular, the Chinese authorities are considering extending a tax break for electric vehicles, building new charging stations and reducing charging fees. However, the size of these measures was not specified. This comes after the Chinese authorities cut the purchase tax for reasonably priced vehicles by a half last month. These measures might be supportive for the demand for battery metals (nickel, lithium and cobalt). We note that in May, the country’s sales of internal combustion engine cars were down 26% YoY, while EV sales rose 105% YoY
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
🚘US light vehicle sales fell 14% YoY in June, with the rate of decline decelerating from 30% YoY in May. The seasonally-adjusted sales declined 15% YoY in June (vs. the 25% YoY decrease in May). As previously, the drop came on the back of the shortage in automotive parts and surging inflation. Decreasing car sales are negative for PGM demand
🚙China has announced plans to support EV demand. In particular, the Chinese authorities are considering extending a tax break for electric vehicles, building new charging stations and reducing charging fees. However, the size of these measures was not specified. This comes after the Chinese authorities cut the purchase tax for reasonably priced vehicles by a half last month. These measures might be supportive for the demand for battery metals (nickel, lithium and cobalt). We note that in May, the country’s sales of internal combustion engine cars were down 26% YoY, while EV sales rose 105% YoY
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
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Morning Bites (part 2)
📌Peru’s copper output decreased 11.2% YoY in May (vs. the 1.7% YoY decline in April). The drop was partially caused by the stoppage of Las Bambas mine (1.7% of global copper supply) amid protests. Falling copper production in Peru might be slightly supportive for copper prices, given that the country accounts for some 11% of global mine copper supply
#copper
📌Peru’s copper output decreased 11.2% YoY in May (vs. the 1.7% YoY decline in April). The drop was partially caused by the stoppage of Las Bambas mine (1.7% of global copper supply) amid protests. Falling copper production in Peru might be slightly supportive for copper prices, given that the country accounts for some 11% of global mine copper supply
#copper
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Morning Bites (part 1)
🔗The Russian Steel Association anticipates a 20-50% YoY decrease in Russia’s steel production in June. However, in our view, this estimate is overly downbeat. Previously, we noted that Russian steelmakers’ sales had fallen 11% YoY in May, mostly on the back of the 41% YoY decrease in finished product exports, while domestic shipments were down 8% YoY in the same month. The full production data is to be released at the end of this month
📉Gold-backed ETFs continued to reduce their holdings through June, with net outflows at 32t (after 51t of outflows in May). According to the World Gold Council, the outflows were triggered by the anticipated future interest rate hikes in the US and Europe. We note, however, that surging inflation might support the demand for gold investment in the coming months
#steel #ETF #gold
🔗The Russian Steel Association anticipates a 20-50% YoY decrease in Russia’s steel production in June. However, in our view, this estimate is overly downbeat. Previously, we noted that Russian steelmakers’ sales had fallen 11% YoY in May, mostly on the back of the 41% YoY decrease in finished product exports, while domestic shipments were down 8% YoY in the same month. The full production data is to be released at the end of this month
📉Gold-backed ETFs continued to reduce their holdings through June, with net outflows at 32t (after 51t of outflows in May). According to the World Gold Council, the outflows were triggered by the anticipated future interest rate hikes in the US and Europe. We note, however, that surging inflation might support the demand for gold investment in the coming months
#steel #ETF #gold
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Morning Bites (part 2)
💍US jewellery and watch sales were up 10.5% YoY in May, according to data from the US Department of Commerce. The growth rate decelerated from the revised 16.2% YoY increase in April. We note that even though the growth rate remained quite strong in May, there is a downside risk to downstream diamond demand, due to rising inflation and concerns over a recession
#diamonds
💍US jewellery and watch sales were up 10.5% YoY in May, according to data from the US Department of Commerce. The growth rate decelerated from the revised 16.2% YoY increase in April. We note that even though the growth rate remained quite strong in May, there is a downside risk to downstream diamond demand, due to rising inflation and concerns over a recession
#diamonds
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Morning Bites
💍According to MasterCard SpendingPulse, preliminary US jewellery sales rose 16% YoY in June. In May, MasterCard reported a 22% YoY increase in US jewellery sales, above the official growth rate of 11% YoY. According to MasterCard, in June, jewellery sales were supported by people travelling more actively than in the same month last year
💎The growth rate of Hong Kong jewellery & watch sales decelerated to 6% YoY in May, from 13% YoY in April. The HK government stated that it expected the recovery in retail sales to continue as the COVID situation remained under control. As before, we note that inflationary pressures and recession concerns might be negative factors affecting the global downstream demand for diamonds
#diamonds
💍According to MasterCard SpendingPulse, preliminary US jewellery sales rose 16% YoY in June. In May, MasterCard reported a 22% YoY increase in US jewellery sales, above the official growth rate of 11% YoY. According to MasterCard, in June, jewellery sales were supported by people travelling more actively than in the same month last year
💎The growth rate of Hong Kong jewellery & watch sales decelerated to 6% YoY in May, from 13% YoY in April. The HK government stated that it expected the recovery in retail sales to continue as the COVID situation remained under control. As before, we note that inflationary pressures and recession concerns might be negative factors affecting the global downstream demand for diamonds
#diamonds
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Morning Bites
🚗💨China’s new internal combustion engine car sales grew 8% YoY in June, reversing from the 26% YoY decline in May. The recovery might have been caused by COVID restrictions being eased, car plate quotas extended and the provision of vehicle purchase tax relief. Given that the country’s automotive sector accounts for some 26% and 17% of global autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively, this might be supportive for PGM demand
🚙The growth rate of China’s new EV sales accelerated to 129% YoY in June, from 105% YoY in May. We note that the recently announced support measures might further drive EV sales in the coming months. That would be positive for the demand for battery metals (nickel, lithium and cobalt). In 2021, China accounted for 49% of global EV sales (passenger cars and light-duty vehicles)
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
🚗💨China’s new internal combustion engine car sales grew 8% YoY in June, reversing from the 26% YoY decline in May. The recovery might have been caused by COVID restrictions being eased, car plate quotas extended and the provision of vehicle purchase tax relief. Given that the country’s automotive sector accounts for some 26% and 17% of global autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively, this might be supportive for PGM demand
🚙The growth rate of China’s new EV sales accelerated to 129% YoY in June, from 105% YoY in May. We note that the recently announced support measures might further drive EV sales in the coming months. That would be positive for the demand for battery metals (nickel, lithium and cobalt). In 2021, China accounted for 49% of global EV sales (passenger cars and light-duty vehicles)
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
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🗞Today China published preliminary import/export statistics for June. See preliminary data in the table above
#statistics #China
#statistics #China
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Morning Bites
📉CISA mills’ daily crude steel output declined 1.2% in early July from the last ten days of June, or a 2.9% YoY drop (vs. the 7.3% YoY decline in late June). The continued reduction in steel output was likely caused by the weak domestic steel demand and the high level of steel inventories, which rose 6.5% from 30 June to 10 July and were up 28.4% YoY as of 10 July
💎Mountain Province has reported an 18% YoY decrease in rough diamond sales, to 587kct for USD 76mn, in 2Q22. The average realised price of USD 130/ct was down 2% QoQ but up 78% YoY due to strong US retail demand. The company’s rough diamond output fell 29% YoY to 1.3mnct in 2Q22, due to issues with the processing plant. As a result, the company lowered its 2022 production guidance 10% to 5.6-5.8mnct. The company retains its positive outlook on diamond demand amid strong US sales and the anticipated recovery of the Chinese market. However, we see risks associated with rising inflation and recession concerns
#steel #diamonds
📉CISA mills’ daily crude steel output declined 1.2% in early July from the last ten days of June, or a 2.9% YoY drop (vs. the 7.3% YoY decline in late June). The continued reduction in steel output was likely caused by the weak domestic steel demand and the high level of steel inventories, which rose 6.5% from 30 June to 10 July and were up 28.4% YoY as of 10 July
💎Mountain Province has reported an 18% YoY decrease in rough diamond sales, to 587kct for USD 76mn, in 2Q22. The average realised price of USD 130/ct was down 2% QoQ but up 78% YoY due to strong US retail demand. The company’s rough diamond output fell 29% YoY to 1.3mnct in 2Q22, due to issues with the processing plant. As a result, the company lowered its 2022 production guidance 10% to 5.6-5.8mnct. The company retains its positive outlook on diamond demand amid strong US sales and the anticipated recovery of the Chinese market. However, we see risks associated with rising inflation and recession concerns
#steel #diamonds
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China’s import/export statistics for June - highlights
• China’s unwrought copper imports were up 26% YoY in June (vs. 4% YoY increase in May). The growth might have been driven by the partial recovery of manufacturing activity in China following the lifting of COVID lockdowns
• China’s unwrought aluminium and product exports rose 34% YoY in June (vs. 54% YoY growth in May). According to industry reports, the growth rate deceleration might have been caused by subdued aluminium demand outside China and the resumption of anti-dumping tariffs in the EU. These factors might further slow-down China’s aluminium exports in the short term
• The growth rate of China’s finished steel net exports decelerated to 30% YoY in June from 71% YoY in May. However, we note that China’s steel demand apparently remains relatively weak, which was reflected by the 7% decrease in the daily crude steel output through the last ten days of June
#China #copper #aluminium #steel
• China’s unwrought copper imports were up 26% YoY in June (vs. 4% YoY increase in May). The growth might have been driven by the partial recovery of manufacturing activity in China following the lifting of COVID lockdowns
• China’s unwrought aluminium and product exports rose 34% YoY in June (vs. 54% YoY growth in May). According to industry reports, the growth rate deceleration might have been caused by subdued aluminium demand outside China and the resumption of anti-dumping tariffs in the EU. These factors might further slow-down China’s aluminium exports in the short term
• The growth rate of China’s finished steel net exports decelerated to 30% YoY in June from 71% YoY in May. However, we note that China’s steel demand apparently remains relatively weak, which was reflected by the 7% decrease in the daily crude steel output through the last ten days of June
#China #copper #aluminium #steel
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