Morning Bites
💍China’s jewellery and watch retail sales were up 2% YoY in September, following the 7% YoY increase in August. The deceleration in the growth rate might have been caused by the relatively stringent COVID restrictions that are still in place in China. Furthermore, the difficult global economic conditions could limit downstream diamond demand in the near term
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
💍China’s jewellery and watch retail sales were up 2% YoY in September, following the 7% YoY increase in August. The deceleration in the growth rate might have been caused by the relatively stringent COVID restrictions that are still in place in China. Furthermore, the difficult global economic conditions could limit downstream diamond demand in the near term
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
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Morning Bites (part 1)
🔗Global crude steel output rose 4% YoY to 152mnt in September, reversing from the 3% YoY decline in August, according to the World Steel Association. This recovery was driven by the 18% YoY increase in China’s steel output, which was supported by the improved demand outlook. China accounted for 57% of global steel production in September (vs. 56% in August). Meanwhile, the decline in ex-China steel production deepened to 11% YoY, from 7% YoY in August. Steel output in the EU fell 17% YoY, with the rate of decline accelerating from 11% YoY in August due to high energy costs and weak steel demand. Meanwhile, US steel production contracted 8% YoY (vs. -7% YoY in August). At the same time, the decline in Russia’s steel output accelerated to 7% YoY in September, from 6% YoY in August, according to the WSA
📉We keep our negative outlook on global steel production amid the unfavourable economic conditions
#steel
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Steel
🔗Global crude steel output rose 4% YoY to 152mnt in September, reversing from the 3% YoY decline in August, according to the World Steel Association. This recovery was driven by the 18% YoY increase in China’s steel output, which was supported by the improved demand outlook. China accounted for 57% of global steel production in September (vs. 56% in August). Meanwhile, the decline in ex-China steel production deepened to 11% YoY, from 7% YoY in August. Steel output in the EU fell 17% YoY, with the rate of decline accelerating from 11% YoY in August due to high energy costs and weak steel demand. Meanwhile, US steel production contracted 8% YoY (vs. -7% YoY in August). At the same time, the decline in Russia’s steel output accelerated to 7% YoY in September, from 6% YoY in August, according to the WSA
📉We keep our negative outlook on global steel production amid the unfavourable economic conditions
#steel
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Steel
Morning Bites (part 2)
📌Global stainless steel production fell 3.5% YoY in 1H22, according to Worldstainless. The main contributor to the production decline was China (down 5.3% YoY in 1H22), which accounted for 56% of global output. At the same time, US stainless steel production dropped 15% YoY, while Europe’s output declined 5% YoY in 1H22. The output contraction might have been caused by rising costs and weak demand
📌ICSG expects a refined copper deficit of 328t in 2022 and a surplus of 155t in 2023. For 2022, ICSG revised down its supply growth rate estimate from 4.3% YoY to 2.8% YoY due to the multiple supply disruptions experienced by some key producers. According to ICSG, copper demand might rise 2.2% YoY in 2022. For 2023, ICSG forecasts a 3.3% YoY increase in copper production and 1.4% YoY growth in demand
#copper #stainless_steel
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
📌Global stainless steel production fell 3.5% YoY in 1H22, according to Worldstainless. The main contributor to the production decline was China (down 5.3% YoY in 1H22), which accounted for 56% of global output. At the same time, US stainless steel production dropped 15% YoY, while Europe’s output declined 5% YoY in 1H22. The output contraction might have been caused by rising costs and weak demand
📌ICSG expects a refined copper deficit of 328t in 2022 and a surplus of 155t in 2023. For 2022, ICSG revised down its supply growth rate estimate from 4.3% YoY to 2.8% YoY due to the multiple supply disruptions experienced by some key producers. According to ICSG, copper demand might rise 2.2% YoY in 2022. For 2023, ICSG forecasts a 3.3% YoY increase in copper production and 1.4% YoY growth in demand
#copper #stainless_steel
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
First Quantum 3Q22 results - worse than expected
📉3Q22 revenue fell 4% YoY and was 6% below our forecast due to lower sales volumes and average realised prices. EBITDA dropped 33% YoY, falling short of the consensus and our estimates by 22% and 23%, respectively, due to lower revenues and higher costs
💰In 3Q22, C1 copper cash costs rose 44% YoY (up 5% QoQ) to USD 1.82/lb, which was 14% above the upper end of the previous copper cost guidance for 2022. As a result, the company has raised its 2022 C1 copper cost guidance 15% to USD 1.7-1.8/lb
⛏The company has lowered its copper production guidance 6% to 755-785kt in 2022 mainly due to lower grades at Kansanshi. Gold production guidance was reduced 7% to 270-285koz in 2022 due to lower grades at Cobre Panama and Kansanshi
❗️Given the lowered production targets and the increased cost guidance, on spot prices, the company’s EBITDA might further decline QoQ in 4Q22
$FM #copper
https://metals-wire.com:3000/company/FM_CN/
📉3Q22 revenue fell 4% YoY and was 6% below our forecast due to lower sales volumes and average realised prices. EBITDA dropped 33% YoY, falling short of the consensus and our estimates by 22% and 23%, respectively, due to lower revenues and higher costs
💰In 3Q22, C1 copper cash costs rose 44% YoY (up 5% QoQ) to USD 1.82/lb, which was 14% above the upper end of the previous copper cost guidance for 2022. As a result, the company has raised its 2022 C1 copper cost guidance 15% to USD 1.7-1.8/lb
⛏The company has lowered its copper production guidance 6% to 755-785kt in 2022 mainly due to lower grades at Kansanshi. Gold production guidance was reduced 7% to 270-285koz in 2022 due to lower grades at Cobre Panama and Kansanshi
❗️Given the lowered production targets and the increased cost guidance, on spot prices, the company’s EBITDA might further decline QoQ in 4Q22
$FM #copper
https://metals-wire.com:3000/company/FM_CN/
Morning Bites (part 1)
📉CISA mills daily crude steel output fell 2% in mid-October from the first ten days of the month. However, this represented a 10% YoY increase. According to Metal Expert, the WoW reduction in steel output might have been partially caused by the sluggish demand from the construction sector. The weaker demand was reflected in the 9% increase in steel inventories through the period. As of 20 October, steel inventories were up 38% YoY. We maintain our negative view on China’s steel production amid the subdued demand
#steel
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Steel
📉CISA mills daily crude steel output fell 2% in mid-October from the first ten days of the month. However, this represented a 10% YoY increase. According to Metal Expert, the WoW reduction in steel output might have been partially caused by the sluggish demand from the construction sector. The weaker demand was reflected in the 9% increase in steel inventories through the period. As of 20 October, steel inventories were up 38% YoY. We maintain our negative view on China’s steel production amid the subdued demand
#steel
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Steel
Morning Bites (part 2)
🪨China’s coking coal imports rose 58% YoY in September, after the 37% YoY increase in August. The major contributor to the growth was imports from Mongolia (47% of total imports), which increased 387% YoY and 12% MoM in September. According to Metal Expert, imports from Mongolia were supported by the launch of the new railway line. At the same time, imports from Russia (36% of the total) jumped 164% YoY. The increase in China’s coking coal imports might have been driven by the 18% YoY increase in China’s crude steel production in September
#coal
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Coal
🪨China’s coking coal imports rose 58% YoY in September, after the 37% YoY increase in August. The major contributor to the growth was imports from Mongolia (47% of total imports), which increased 387% YoY and 12% MoM in September. According to Metal Expert, imports from Mongolia were supported by the launch of the new railway line. At the same time, imports from Russia (36% of the total) jumped 164% YoY. The increase in China’s coking coal imports might have been driven by the 18% YoY increase in China’s crude steel production in September
#coal
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Coal
Teck 3Q22 results - slightly above our forecasts
✏️3Q22 revenues rose 18% YoY (6% above our estimate). This was driven by the 28% YoY increase in the coking coal realised price and the 25% YoY growth of zinc sales volumes, as the shipping season started earlier than in 2021. The 3Q22 adjusted EBITDA fell 9% YoY (+4% vs. our forecast; +5% vs. consensus). The decline was caused by increased costs
💰In 3Q22, copper and zinc cash costs rose 19% YoY and 185% YoY, respectively, though the 2022 cost guidance was reiterated
⛏The 2022 coking coal and refined zinc production guidance was lowered 6% due to operational issues
❗️The company has announced that it is to sell its 21.3% interest in Fort Hills bitumen business for CAD 1bn in cash, with the effective date of 1 Nov 2022. The segment accounted for ~10% of the company’s EBITDA in 9mo22. Given the sale of the segment, lower production guidance and rising costs, 4Q22 EBITDA might be lower than in 3Q22
$TECK #copper
https://metals-wire.com:3000/company/TECK_US/
✏️3Q22 revenues rose 18% YoY (6% above our estimate). This was driven by the 28% YoY increase in the coking coal realised price and the 25% YoY growth of zinc sales volumes, as the shipping season started earlier than in 2021. The 3Q22 adjusted EBITDA fell 9% YoY (+4% vs. our forecast; +5% vs. consensus). The decline was caused by increased costs
💰In 3Q22, copper and zinc cash costs rose 19% YoY and 185% YoY, respectively, though the 2022 cost guidance was reiterated
⛏The 2022 coking coal and refined zinc production guidance was lowered 6% due to operational issues
❗️The company has announced that it is to sell its 21.3% interest in Fort Hills bitumen business for CAD 1bn in cash, with the effective date of 1 Nov 2022. The segment accounted for ~10% of the company’s EBITDA in 9mo22. Given the sale of the segment, lower production guidance and rising costs, 4Q22 EBITDA might be lower than in 3Q22
$TECK #copper
https://metals-wire.com:3000/company/TECK_US/
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Morning Bites (part 1)
💎De Beers has reported a 4% YoY increase in rough diamond production, to 9.6mnct in 3Q22. According to the company, the production growth was mainly driven by the treatment of higher grade ore in Botswana and South Africa. The company has reiterated its 2022 production guidance of 32-34mnct (100% basis). Rough diamond sales from 3 cycles in 3Q22 totalled 8.5mnct, which was 21% above the 7.0mnct from 2 cycles in 3Q21 and 2% above the 8.3mnct from 3 cycles in 2Q22. However, the company has noted that even though the consumer demand for natural diamonds remained robust in 3Q22, the unfavourable global economic conditions and China’s COVID-related restrictions might adversely affect the demand for diamond jewellery. That is in line with our view
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Diamonds
💎De Beers has reported a 4% YoY increase in rough diamond production, to 9.6mnct in 3Q22. According to the company, the production growth was mainly driven by the treatment of higher grade ore in Botswana and South Africa. The company has reiterated its 2022 production guidance of 32-34mnct (100% basis). Rough diamond sales from 3 cycles in 3Q22 totalled 8.5mnct, which was 21% above the 7.0mnct from 2 cycles in 3Q21 and 2% above the 8.3mnct from 3 cycles in 2Q22. However, the company has noted that even though the consumer demand for natural diamonds remained robust in 3Q22, the unfavourable global economic conditions and China’s COVID-related restrictions might adversely affect the demand for diamond jewellery. That is in line with our view
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites (part 2)
📉China’s ROM iron ore output fell 7% YoY in September (vs. -4% YoY in August) despite the country's crude steel production increasing 18% YoY. According to Metal Expert, the iron ore demand from steelmakers was met by a 4% YoY increase in iron ore imports and the use of the inventories that, nevertheless, remained above the 2021 level in late September. We keep our negative outlook on China’s iron ore production due to the weak demand for steel
#iron_ore
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Iron_ore
📉China’s ROM iron ore output fell 7% YoY in September (vs. -4% YoY in August) despite the country's crude steel production increasing 18% YoY. According to Metal Expert, the iron ore demand from steelmakers was met by a 4% YoY increase in iron ore imports and the use of the inventories that, nevertheless, remained above the 2021 level in late September. We keep our negative outlook on China’s iron ore production due to the weak demand for steel
#iron_ore
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Iron_ore
Vale 3Q22 results – modest, behind consensus and us
📉Vale 3Q22 revenue declined 19% YoY, standing 9% below our estimates due to lower iron ore sales than we had expected (even though the realised price for fines was 6% above our estimates). EBITDA was 24% and 18% behind consensus and our estimates due to lower sales
💰Iron ore cash costs excl. 3rd party purchases, despite higher diesel prices, decreased 7% QoQ to USD 19.4/t, supported by the positive effects of strong production and conducive FX movements
💵The company announced the completion of 25% of the 3rd share buyback programme, launched in April 2022, for a total consideration of USD 1.9bn (3% yield so far)
📉Given subdued iron ore prices and elevated freight rates, 4Q22 EBITDA might further see some single digit QoQ decrease at spot prices
$VALE #iron_ore
https://metals-wire.com:3000/company/VALE_US/
📉Vale 3Q22 revenue declined 19% YoY, standing 9% below our estimates due to lower iron ore sales than we had expected (even though the realised price for fines was 6% above our estimates). EBITDA was 24% and 18% behind consensus and our estimates due to lower sales
💰Iron ore cash costs excl. 3rd party purchases, despite higher diesel prices, decreased 7% QoQ to USD 19.4/t, supported by the positive effects of strong production and conducive FX movements
💵The company announced the completion of 25% of the 3rd share buyback programme, launched in April 2022, for a total consideration of USD 1.9bn (3% yield so far)
📉Given subdued iron ore prices and elevated freight rates, 4Q22 EBITDA might further see some single digit QoQ decrease at spot prices
$VALE #iron_ore
https://metals-wire.com:3000/company/VALE_US/
US Steel 3Q22 results - falling shipment volumes
📉3Q22 revenues fell 13% YoY (-2% vs. our forecast) due to the 10% YoY decline in the total steel shipment volumes and the YoY decrease in average realised prices. 3Q22 adjusted EBITDA dropped 58% YoY, (+2% vs. the consensus; -7% vs. our forecast). The decline was caused by the weaker revenues and increased costs
💰The Europe segment faced the largest cost increase of 37% YoY. Meanwhile, the Mini Mill and Tubular segments’ unit costs rose 33% and 17% YoY, respectively
🚢In terms of shipment volumes, the greatest decline was experienced by the Europe segment (down 19% YoY). Steel shipments from the Mini Mill and the Flat-Rolled segments fell 13% and 7% YoY, respectively
❗️Given the weak demand and high costs, the company’s EBITDA might remain low in 4Q22, on spot prices
❗️We note that the weak results in Europe (minus USD 12mn 3Q22 EBITDA) might be a negative cross-read on MT results (due on 10 Nov)
$X #steel
https://metals-wire.com:3000/company/X_US/
📉3Q22 revenues fell 13% YoY (-2% vs. our forecast) due to the 10% YoY decline in the total steel shipment volumes and the YoY decrease in average realised prices. 3Q22 adjusted EBITDA dropped 58% YoY, (+2% vs. the consensus; -7% vs. our forecast). The decline was caused by the weaker revenues and increased costs
💰The Europe segment faced the largest cost increase of 37% YoY. Meanwhile, the Mini Mill and Tubular segments’ unit costs rose 33% and 17% YoY, respectively
🚢In terms of shipment volumes, the greatest decline was experienced by the Europe segment (down 19% YoY). Steel shipments from the Mini Mill and the Flat-Rolled segments fell 13% and 7% YoY, respectively
❗️Given the weak demand and high costs, the company’s EBITDA might remain low in 4Q22, on spot prices
❗️We note that the weak results in Europe (minus USD 12mn 3Q22 EBITDA) might be a negative cross-read on MT results (due on 10 Nov)
$X #steel
https://metals-wire.com:3000/company/X_US/
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Morning Bites
🔗Severstal has announced a further 4% decrease in Russian domestic rebar prices for November to RUB 35k/t (USD 576/t) (excl. VAT), following the recently announced 2% reduction. The new price is in line with the November rebar prices that NLMK announced last week. According to Metal Expert, this was driven by the high level of inventories and weakening domestic steel demand. Given the decline in prices, the rebar-billet premium might drop to USD 60/t, from USD 82/t at present, other things being equal (vs. the historical average of a USD 20/t premium). Currently, the billet premium to slab export prices is USD 25/t (vs. the historical average of USD 0/t)
#rusteel
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Steel
🔗Severstal has announced a further 4% decrease in Russian domestic rebar prices for November to RUB 35k/t (USD 576/t) (excl. VAT), following the recently announced 2% reduction. The new price is in line with the November rebar prices that NLMK announced last week. According to Metal Expert, this was driven by the high level of inventories and weakening domestic steel demand. Given the decline in prices, the rebar-billet premium might drop to USD 60/t, from USD 82/t at present, other things being equal (vs. the historical average of a USD 20/t premium). Currently, the billet premium to slab export prices is USD 25/t (vs. the historical average of USD 0/t)
#rusteel
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Steel
Week ahead data releases in M&M
As the reporting season continues, two major gold miners (among others) are due to report their earnings. For most of the names publishing this week, our 3Q22 EBITDA forecasts are slightly above the consensus estimates
#reporting_season
https://metals-wire.com:3000/events
As the reporting season continues, two major gold miners (among others) are due to report their earnings. For most of the names publishing this week, our 3Q22 EBITDA forecasts are slightly above the consensus estimates
#reporting_season
https://metals-wire.com:3000/events
Morning Bites
⛰Mountain Province has reported a 22% YoY decrease in rough diamond sales volumes, to 805kct for USD 83mn, in 3Q22. The average realised price of USD 103/ct was down 21% QoQ, but up 43% YoY. However, adjusting for the mix of goods sold, on a like-for-like basis, the average value per carat was up 2% QoQ. Even though the company stated that its sales continued to be resilient, it acknowledged that rough diamond market prices had stabilised through the period. This might have been caused by the softer demand amid the unfavourable economic environment, and that might further negatively affect downstream diamond demand
Meanwhile, the company’s rough diamond output fell 7% YoY to 711kct in 3Q22, on the back of the continued impact of the operational challenges the company experienced in 2Q22
#diamonds
⛰Mountain Province has reported a 22% YoY decrease in rough diamond sales volumes, to 805kct for USD 83mn, in 3Q22. The average realised price of USD 103/ct was down 21% QoQ, but up 43% YoY. However, adjusting for the mix of goods sold, on a like-for-like basis, the average value per carat was up 2% QoQ. Even though the company stated that its sales continued to be resilient, it acknowledged that rough diamond market prices had stabilised through the period. This might have been caused by the softer demand amid the unfavourable economic environment, and that might further negatively affect downstream diamond demand
Meanwhile, the company’s rough diamond output fell 7% YoY to 711kct in 3Q22, on the back of the continued impact of the operational challenges the company experienced in 2Q22
#diamonds
CSN 3Q22 results - broadly in line with expectations
✏️3Q22 revenues rose 6% YoY (in line with our forecast) due to the increased sales volumes. Adjusted EBITDA was down 37% YoY in 3Q22 (-1% vs. the consensus and -4% vs. us), driven by the YoY cost increase
⛏The company reduced its 2022 iron ore production guidance 8% and reiterated the steel sales guidance
❗️On our numbers, the 4Q22 EBITDA might be close to the 3Q22 level, at spot prices
$SID #iron_ore
https://metals-wire.com:3000/company/SID_US/
✏️3Q22 revenues rose 6% YoY (in line with our forecast) due to the increased sales volumes. Adjusted EBITDA was down 37% YoY in 3Q22 (-1% vs. the consensus and -4% vs. us), driven by the YoY cost increase
⛏The company reduced its 2022 iron ore production guidance 8% and reiterated the steel sales guidance
❗️On our numbers, the 4Q22 EBITDA might be close to the 3Q22 level, at spot prices
$SID #iron_ore
https://metals-wire.com:3000/company/SID_US/
Newmont 3Q22 results miss forecasts
📉3Q22 revenues declined 9% YoY, 10% below our forecast on sales volumes that were 10% less than we had expected. 3Q22 adjusted EBITDA was down 35% YoY to USD 850mn, mainly as a result of higher costs. Adjusted EBITDA was -19% vs. the consensus and -26% vs. our forecast, as the negative effect of lower than expected sales was exacerbated by the higher costs
💵In 3Q22, gold AISC rose 13% YoY (+6% QoQ) to USD 1,271/oz
⛏The company reaffirmed its latest 2022 guidance, released on 25 July
❗️Given rising costs, we believe the company’s EBITDA might further decline in 4Q22, at spot prices
$NEM #gold
https://metals-wire.com:3000/company/NEM_US/
📉3Q22 revenues declined 9% YoY, 10% below our forecast on sales volumes that were 10% less than we had expected. 3Q22 adjusted EBITDA was down 35% YoY to USD 850mn, mainly as a result of higher costs. Adjusted EBITDA was -19% vs. the consensus and -26% vs. our forecast, as the negative effect of lower than expected sales was exacerbated by the higher costs
💵In 3Q22, gold AISC rose 13% YoY (+6% QoQ) to USD 1,271/oz
⛏The company reaffirmed its latest 2022 guidance, released on 25 July
❗️Given rising costs, we believe the company’s EBITDA might further decline in 4Q22, at spot prices
$NEM #gold
https://metals-wire.com:3000/company/NEM_US/
Morning Bites (part 1)
🏦Global central banks were net purchasers of 30t of gold in September (vs. 20t of purchases in August), the World Gold Council reports. The biggest buyer was Turkey, which bought 11t in September (vs. 9t in August), while Uzbekistan purchased 9t (the same as in August). The only seller was Mongolia, disposing of 0.4t of gold in September. However, despite central banks’ increased net purchases, gold prices continued to be pressured in September by net outflows from gold-backed ETFs
#gold
🏦Global central banks were net purchasers of 30t of gold in September (vs. 20t of purchases in August), the World Gold Council reports. The biggest buyer was Turkey, which bought 11t in September (vs. 9t in August), while Uzbekistan purchased 9t (the same as in August). The only seller was Mongolia, disposing of 0.4t of gold in September. However, despite central banks’ increased net purchases, gold prices continued to be pressured in September by net outflows from gold-backed ETFs
#gold
Morning Bites (part 2)
🏆Global physical gold demand rose 49% YoY to 1,350t in 3Q22, after being flat YoY in 2Q22, according to the World Gold Council. At the same time, global total gold demand was up 27% YoY (vs. -8% YoY in 2Q22). The growth of physical gold demand was mainly driven by the 341% YoY increase in the demand from central banks and other institutions. At the same time, the demand for gold jewellery rose 10% YoY in 3Q22 (vs. +5% YoY in 2Q22), driven by the YoY increases of 17% in India, 5% in China and 19% in the Middle East. Meanwhile, gold mine production rose 2% YoY in 3Q22, the same as in 2Q22
#gold
🏆Global physical gold demand rose 49% YoY to 1,350t in 3Q22, after being flat YoY in 2Q22, according to the World Gold Council. At the same time, global total gold demand was up 27% YoY (vs. -8% YoY in 2Q22). The growth of physical gold demand was mainly driven by the 341% YoY increase in the demand from central banks and other institutions. At the same time, the demand for gold jewellery rose 10% YoY in 3Q22 (vs. +5% YoY in 2Q22), driven by the YoY increases of 17% in India, 5% in China and 19% in the Middle East. Meanwhile, gold mine production rose 2% YoY in 3Q22, the same as in 2Q22
#gold
Morning Bites (part 1)
🌏Global manufacturing PMIs continued to fall in October. The Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI dropped to 46.4, from 48.4 in September (slightly below the preliminary reading of 46.6). The US ISM manufacturing PMI declined to 50.2 (from 50.9 in September), the lowest level since May 2020, but slightly above the consensus estimate of 50.0
🇨🇳China's official PMI dropped to 49.2 (from 50.1 in September), which was below the market forecast of 50.0. Meanwhile, China's Caixin manufacturing PMI rose to 49.2, from 48.1 a month ago, slightly outperforming the consensus estimate of 49.0
❗️Below-50 manufacturing PMIs in the Eurozone and China indicate a manufacturing sector contraction in these regions, which is negative for the demand for industrial metals. At the same time, the decline in the US manufacturing PMI implies that manufacturing activity in the US is softening
#PMIs
🌏Global manufacturing PMIs continued to fall in October. The Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI dropped to 46.4, from 48.4 in September (slightly below the preliminary reading of 46.6). The US ISM manufacturing PMI declined to 50.2 (from 50.9 in September), the lowest level since May 2020, but slightly above the consensus estimate of 50.0
🇨🇳China's official PMI dropped to 49.2 (from 50.1 in September), which was below the market forecast of 50.0. Meanwhile, China's Caixin manufacturing PMI rose to 49.2, from 48.1 a month ago, slightly outperforming the consensus estimate of 49.0
❗️Below-50 manufacturing PMIs in the Eurozone and China indicate a manufacturing sector contraction in these regions, which is negative for the demand for industrial metals. At the same time, the decline in the US manufacturing PMI implies that manufacturing activity in the US is softening
#PMIs