Morning Bites
🔗Severstal has announced a further 4% decrease in Russian domestic rebar prices for November to RUB 35k/t (USD 576/t) (excl. VAT), following the recently announced 2% reduction. The new price is in line with the November rebar prices that NLMK announced last week. According to Metal Expert, this was driven by the high level of inventories and weakening domestic steel demand. Given the decline in prices, the rebar-billet premium might drop to USD 60/t, from USD 82/t at present, other things being equal (vs. the historical average of a USD 20/t premium). Currently, the billet premium to slab export prices is USD 25/t (vs. the historical average of USD 0/t)
#rusteel
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Steel
🔗Severstal has announced a further 4% decrease in Russian domestic rebar prices for November to RUB 35k/t (USD 576/t) (excl. VAT), following the recently announced 2% reduction. The new price is in line with the November rebar prices that NLMK announced last week. According to Metal Expert, this was driven by the high level of inventories and weakening domestic steel demand. Given the decline in prices, the rebar-billet premium might drop to USD 60/t, from USD 82/t at present, other things being equal (vs. the historical average of a USD 20/t premium). Currently, the billet premium to slab export prices is USD 25/t (vs. the historical average of USD 0/t)
#rusteel
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Steel
Week ahead data releases in M&M
As the reporting season continues, two major gold miners (among others) are due to report their earnings. For most of the names publishing this week, our 3Q22 EBITDA forecasts are slightly above the consensus estimates
#reporting_season
https://metals-wire.com:3000/events
As the reporting season continues, two major gold miners (among others) are due to report their earnings. For most of the names publishing this week, our 3Q22 EBITDA forecasts are slightly above the consensus estimates
#reporting_season
https://metals-wire.com:3000/events
Morning Bites
⛰Mountain Province has reported a 22% YoY decrease in rough diamond sales volumes, to 805kct for USD 83mn, in 3Q22. The average realised price of USD 103/ct was down 21% QoQ, but up 43% YoY. However, adjusting for the mix of goods sold, on a like-for-like basis, the average value per carat was up 2% QoQ. Even though the company stated that its sales continued to be resilient, it acknowledged that rough diamond market prices had stabilised through the period. This might have been caused by the softer demand amid the unfavourable economic environment, and that might further negatively affect downstream diamond demand
Meanwhile, the company’s rough diamond output fell 7% YoY to 711kct in 3Q22, on the back of the continued impact of the operational challenges the company experienced in 2Q22
#diamonds
⛰Mountain Province has reported a 22% YoY decrease in rough diamond sales volumes, to 805kct for USD 83mn, in 3Q22. The average realised price of USD 103/ct was down 21% QoQ, but up 43% YoY. However, adjusting for the mix of goods sold, on a like-for-like basis, the average value per carat was up 2% QoQ. Even though the company stated that its sales continued to be resilient, it acknowledged that rough diamond market prices had stabilised through the period. This might have been caused by the softer demand amid the unfavourable economic environment, and that might further negatively affect downstream diamond demand
Meanwhile, the company’s rough diamond output fell 7% YoY to 711kct in 3Q22, on the back of the continued impact of the operational challenges the company experienced in 2Q22
#diamonds
CSN 3Q22 results - broadly in line with expectations
✏️3Q22 revenues rose 6% YoY (in line with our forecast) due to the increased sales volumes. Adjusted EBITDA was down 37% YoY in 3Q22 (-1% vs. the consensus and -4% vs. us), driven by the YoY cost increase
⛏The company reduced its 2022 iron ore production guidance 8% and reiterated the steel sales guidance
❗️On our numbers, the 4Q22 EBITDA might be close to the 3Q22 level, at spot prices
$SID #iron_ore
https://metals-wire.com:3000/company/SID_US/
✏️3Q22 revenues rose 6% YoY (in line with our forecast) due to the increased sales volumes. Adjusted EBITDA was down 37% YoY in 3Q22 (-1% vs. the consensus and -4% vs. us), driven by the YoY cost increase
⛏The company reduced its 2022 iron ore production guidance 8% and reiterated the steel sales guidance
❗️On our numbers, the 4Q22 EBITDA might be close to the 3Q22 level, at spot prices
$SID #iron_ore
https://metals-wire.com:3000/company/SID_US/
Newmont 3Q22 results miss forecasts
📉3Q22 revenues declined 9% YoY, 10% below our forecast on sales volumes that were 10% less than we had expected. 3Q22 adjusted EBITDA was down 35% YoY to USD 850mn, mainly as a result of higher costs. Adjusted EBITDA was -19% vs. the consensus and -26% vs. our forecast, as the negative effect of lower than expected sales was exacerbated by the higher costs
💵In 3Q22, gold AISC rose 13% YoY (+6% QoQ) to USD 1,271/oz
⛏The company reaffirmed its latest 2022 guidance, released on 25 July
❗️Given rising costs, we believe the company’s EBITDA might further decline in 4Q22, at spot prices
$NEM #gold
https://metals-wire.com:3000/company/NEM_US/
📉3Q22 revenues declined 9% YoY, 10% below our forecast on sales volumes that were 10% less than we had expected. 3Q22 adjusted EBITDA was down 35% YoY to USD 850mn, mainly as a result of higher costs. Adjusted EBITDA was -19% vs. the consensus and -26% vs. our forecast, as the negative effect of lower than expected sales was exacerbated by the higher costs
💵In 3Q22, gold AISC rose 13% YoY (+6% QoQ) to USD 1,271/oz
⛏The company reaffirmed its latest 2022 guidance, released on 25 July
❗️Given rising costs, we believe the company’s EBITDA might further decline in 4Q22, at spot prices
$NEM #gold
https://metals-wire.com:3000/company/NEM_US/
Morning Bites (part 1)
🏦Global central banks were net purchasers of 30t of gold in September (vs. 20t of purchases in August), the World Gold Council reports. The biggest buyer was Turkey, which bought 11t in September (vs. 9t in August), while Uzbekistan purchased 9t (the same as in August). The only seller was Mongolia, disposing of 0.4t of gold in September. However, despite central banks’ increased net purchases, gold prices continued to be pressured in September by net outflows from gold-backed ETFs
#gold
🏦Global central banks were net purchasers of 30t of gold in September (vs. 20t of purchases in August), the World Gold Council reports. The biggest buyer was Turkey, which bought 11t in September (vs. 9t in August), while Uzbekistan purchased 9t (the same as in August). The only seller was Mongolia, disposing of 0.4t of gold in September. However, despite central banks’ increased net purchases, gold prices continued to be pressured in September by net outflows from gold-backed ETFs
#gold
Morning Bites (part 2)
🏆Global physical gold demand rose 49% YoY to 1,350t in 3Q22, after being flat YoY in 2Q22, according to the World Gold Council. At the same time, global total gold demand was up 27% YoY (vs. -8% YoY in 2Q22). The growth of physical gold demand was mainly driven by the 341% YoY increase in the demand from central banks and other institutions. At the same time, the demand for gold jewellery rose 10% YoY in 3Q22 (vs. +5% YoY in 2Q22), driven by the YoY increases of 17% in India, 5% in China and 19% in the Middle East. Meanwhile, gold mine production rose 2% YoY in 3Q22, the same as in 2Q22
#gold
🏆Global physical gold demand rose 49% YoY to 1,350t in 3Q22, after being flat YoY in 2Q22, according to the World Gold Council. At the same time, global total gold demand was up 27% YoY (vs. -8% YoY in 2Q22). The growth of physical gold demand was mainly driven by the 341% YoY increase in the demand from central banks and other institutions. At the same time, the demand for gold jewellery rose 10% YoY in 3Q22 (vs. +5% YoY in 2Q22), driven by the YoY increases of 17% in India, 5% in China and 19% in the Middle East. Meanwhile, gold mine production rose 2% YoY in 3Q22, the same as in 2Q22
#gold
Morning Bites (part 1)
🌏Global manufacturing PMIs continued to fall in October. The Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI dropped to 46.4, from 48.4 in September (slightly below the preliminary reading of 46.6). The US ISM manufacturing PMI declined to 50.2 (from 50.9 in September), the lowest level since May 2020, but slightly above the consensus estimate of 50.0
🇨🇳China's official PMI dropped to 49.2 (from 50.1 in September), which was below the market forecast of 50.0. Meanwhile, China's Caixin manufacturing PMI rose to 49.2, from 48.1 a month ago, slightly outperforming the consensus estimate of 49.0
❗️Below-50 manufacturing PMIs in the Eurozone and China indicate a manufacturing sector contraction in these regions, which is negative for the demand for industrial metals. At the same time, the decline in the US manufacturing PMI implies that manufacturing activity in the US is softening
#PMIs
🌏Global manufacturing PMIs continued to fall in October. The Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI dropped to 46.4, from 48.4 in September (slightly below the preliminary reading of 46.6). The US ISM manufacturing PMI declined to 50.2 (from 50.9 in September), the lowest level since May 2020, but slightly above the consensus estimate of 50.0
🇨🇳China's official PMI dropped to 49.2 (from 50.1 in September), which was below the market forecast of 50.0. Meanwhile, China's Caixin manufacturing PMI rose to 49.2, from 48.1 a month ago, slightly outperforming the consensus estimate of 49.0
❗️Below-50 manufacturing PMIs in the Eurozone and China indicate a manufacturing sector contraction in these regions, which is negative for the demand for industrial metals. At the same time, the decline in the US manufacturing PMI implies that manufacturing activity in the US is softening
#PMIs
Morning Bites (part 2)
🚘US light vehicle sales were up 10% YoY in October from the low base (the same as in September). However, they were 13% below the 2019 level. Seasonally adjusted sales volumes rose 15% YoY in September (11% below the 2019 level). According to Reuters, US car sales were supported by the easing of supply chain disruptions. Our outlook on US car sales remains negative due to inflationary pressures, which is negative for PGM demand
🔗Turkey’s steel production fell 19% YoY in September (vs. -21% YoY in August). Meanwhile, Turkey’s apparent steel consumption decreased 3% YoY (vs. -12% YoY in August). Steel exports dropped 31% YoY, while steel imports were up 1% YoY in September. According to TCUD, the decline in production and exports was caused by the increased electricity costs
#cars #steel
🚘US light vehicle sales were up 10% YoY in October from the low base (the same as in September). However, they were 13% below the 2019 level. Seasonally adjusted sales volumes rose 15% YoY in September (11% below the 2019 level). According to Reuters, US car sales were supported by the easing of supply chain disruptions. Our outlook on US car sales remains negative due to inflationary pressures, which is negative for PGM demand
🔗Turkey’s steel production fell 19% YoY in September (vs. -21% YoY in August). Meanwhile, Turkey’s apparent steel consumption decreased 3% YoY (vs. -12% YoY in August). Steel exports dropped 31% YoY, while steel imports were up 1% YoY in September. According to TCUD, the decline in production and exports was caused by the increased electricity costs
#cars #steel
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🏆Barrick 3Q22 results met our expectations
📉3Q22 revenues declined 11% YoY (+1% vs. our forecast). Adjusted EBITDA was down 31% YoY in 3Q22 (+5% vs. consensus; in line with our forecast) due to lower revenues and increased costs
💵In 3Q22, gold AISC rose 23% YoY (+5% QoQ, after the 4% QoQ growth in 2Q22) to USD 1,269/oz
⛏The company has reiterated its production and cost guidance for 2022
❗️On our numbers, the company’s 4Q22 adjusted EBITDA might be close to the 3Q22 level, at spot prices
$GOLD #gold
https://metals-wire.com:3000/company/GOLD_US/
📉3Q22 revenues declined 11% YoY (+1% vs. our forecast). Adjusted EBITDA was down 31% YoY in 3Q22 (+5% vs. consensus; in line with our forecast) due to lower revenues and increased costs
💵In 3Q22, gold AISC rose 23% YoY (+5% QoQ, after the 4% QoQ growth in 2Q22) to USD 1,269/oz
⛏The company has reiterated its production and cost guidance for 2022
❗️On our numbers, the company’s 4Q22 adjusted EBITDA might be close to the 3Q22 level, at spot prices
$GOLD #gold
https://metals-wire.com:3000/company/GOLD_US/
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🗞Today China published preliminary import/export statistics for October. See preliminary data in the table above
#statistics #China
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
#statistics #China
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 1)
🚗💨Internal combustion engine (ICE) car registrations in the EU fell 4% YoY in 3Q22 from the low base (after the 25% YoY decline in 2Q22). Petrol car sales were down 3% YoY in 3Q22 (vs. -23% YoY in 2Q22), while diesel car registrations dropped 5% YoY (vs. -29% YoY). Diesel cars constituted 28% of ICE car sales in 3Q22 (vs. 29% in 2Q22). Sluggish ICE car sales are unfavourable for PGM demand
🚘EU and UK EV sales rose 5% YoY in 3Q22, reversing from the 2% YoY decline in 2Q22. BEV sales rose 16% YoY (vs. +11% YoY in 2Q22), while PHEV sales dropped 9% YoY (vs. -16% YoY). The share of BEVs in total EV sales rose to 62% in 3Q22, from 57% in 2Q22. The slight recovery in EU and UK EV sales is moderately positive for the demand for battery metals: nickel, lithium and cobalt
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
🚗💨Internal combustion engine (ICE) car registrations in the EU fell 4% YoY in 3Q22 from the low base (after the 25% YoY decline in 2Q22). Petrol car sales were down 3% YoY in 3Q22 (vs. -23% YoY in 2Q22), while diesel car registrations dropped 5% YoY (vs. -29% YoY). Diesel cars constituted 28% of ICE car sales in 3Q22 (vs. 29% in 2Q22). Sluggish ICE car sales are unfavourable for PGM demand
🚘EU and UK EV sales rose 5% YoY in 3Q22, reversing from the 2% YoY decline in 2Q22. BEV sales rose 16% YoY (vs. +11% YoY in 2Q22), while PHEV sales dropped 9% YoY (vs. -16% YoY). The share of BEVs in total EV sales rose to 62% in 3Q22, from 57% in 2Q22. The slight recovery in EU and UK EV sales is moderately positive for the demand for battery metals: nickel, lithium and cobalt
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
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Morning Bites (part 2)
📉Gold-backed ETFs reduced their holdings 59t through October (after outflows of 102t in September and 57t in August). The YTD net outflow reached 83t at the end of October. According to the World Gold Council (WGC), the outflows were mainly driven by hawkish monetary policies in the US and Europe. The outflows contributed to the 2% decline in the gold price through October. We note that, in annualised terms, the October net outflow might account for ~15% of the total gold demand, which is a significant negative factor that drives down gold prices, despite the growing physical gold demand
#ETF #gold
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Gold
📉Gold-backed ETFs reduced their holdings 59t through October (after outflows of 102t in September and 57t in August). The YTD net outflow reached 83t at the end of October. According to the World Gold Council (WGC), the outflows were mainly driven by hawkish monetary policies in the US and Europe. The outflows contributed to the 2% decline in the gold price through October. We note that, in annualised terms, the October net outflow might account for ~15% of the total gold demand, which is a significant negative factor that drives down gold prices, despite the growing physical gold demand
#ETF #gold
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Gold
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Morning Bites (part 3)
🔗China’s finished steel net exports were up 31% YoY in October, with the growth rate accelerating from 12% YoY in September. Given that China’s average daily steel production was decreasing through October, the increase in steel net exports might have been caused by weak domestic demand
🪨China’s coal imports were up 8% YoY in October (vs. +1% YoY in September). However, this represented a 12% MoM decline. According to Reuters, coal imports fell from the 10-month high reached in September, as the strict COVID-related restrictions constrained the demand for electricity and, hence, for coal
#coal #steel
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
🔗China’s finished steel net exports were up 31% YoY in October, with the growth rate accelerating from 12% YoY in September. Given that China’s average daily steel production was decreasing through October, the increase in steel net exports might have been caused by weak domestic demand
🪨China’s coal imports were up 8% YoY in October (vs. +1% YoY in September). However, this represented a 12% MoM decline. According to Reuters, coal imports fell from the 10-month high reached in September, as the strict COVID-related restrictions constrained the demand for electricity and, hence, for coal
#coal #steel
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
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Week ahead data releases in M&M
Several companies are due to report their 3Q22 earnings this week. Our forecasts are, on average, in the mid-single digits below the consensus estimates. We also note that the weak performance shown by the EU segment of US Steel in 3Q22 might be a negative cross-read for ArcelorMittal's results
#reporting_season
https://metals-wire.com:3000/events
Several companies are due to report their 3Q22 earnings this week. Our forecasts are, on average, in the mid-single digits below the consensus estimates. We also note that the weak performance shown by the EU segment of US Steel in 3Q22 might be a negative cross-read for ArcelorMittal's results
#reporting_season
https://metals-wire.com:3000/events
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Morning Bites (part 1)
🚘New car registrations in France, the UK, Spain, Italy and Germany rose 15% YoY in October from a low base, according to the preliminary data. However, this was 25% below the 2019 level. In France and Germany, car sales decreased 27% and 34% relative to 2019, respectively, while sales in Italy and Spain dropped 26% and 30%, respectively. UK sales were contracted 6% relative to 2019. We note that these 5 countries account for ~70% of total new vehicle registrations in Europe, so EU + UK car sales remained below their pre-pandemic levels, but rose YoY from the low base. The full results for October sales are to be published on 17 November
#cars
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/PGM
🚘New car registrations in France, the UK, Spain, Italy and Germany rose 15% YoY in October from a low base, according to the preliminary data. However, this was 25% below the 2019 level. In France and Germany, car sales decreased 27% and 34% relative to 2019, respectively, while sales in Italy and Spain dropped 26% and 30%, respectively. UK sales were contracted 6% relative to 2019. We note that these 5 countries account for ~70% of total new vehicle registrations in Europe, so EU + UK car sales remained below their pre-pandemic levels, but rose YoY from the low base. The full results for October sales are to be published on 17 November
#cars
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/PGM