Morning Bites (part 1)
🚘New car registrations in France, the UK, Spain, Italy and Germany rose 15% YoY in October from a low base, according to the preliminary data. However, this was 25% below the 2019 level. In France and Germany, car sales decreased 27% and 34% relative to 2019, respectively, while sales in Italy and Spain dropped 26% and 30%, respectively. UK sales were contracted 6% relative to 2019. We note that these 5 countries account for ~70% of total new vehicle registrations in Europe, so EU + UK car sales remained below their pre-pandemic levels, but rose YoY from the low base. The full results for October sales are to be published on 17 November
#cars
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/PGM
🚘New car registrations in France, the UK, Spain, Italy and Germany rose 15% YoY in October from a low base, according to the preliminary data. However, this was 25% below the 2019 level. In France and Germany, car sales decreased 27% and 34% relative to 2019, respectively, while sales in Italy and Spain dropped 26% and 30%, respectively. UK sales were contracted 6% relative to 2019. We note that these 5 countries account for ~70% of total new vehicle registrations in Europe, so EU + UK car sales remained below their pre-pandemic levels, but rose YoY from the low base. The full results for October sales are to be published on 17 November
#cars
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/PGM
Morning Bites (part 2)
📉CISA mills daily crude steel output fell 1.7% in late October from the second ten days of the month. However, this represented a 16.9% YoY increase. Steel inventories contracted 7% through the period (still 28.3% above the 2021 level, as of 31 October). This suggests that apparent steel consumption might have shown some signs of recovery
💍US jewellery and watch sales were up 1.3% YoY in September, according to data from the US Department of Commerce. This was the weakest growth since June 2020. The growth rate decelerated from the revised 3.0% YoY increase in August (+3.7% YoY was previously reported). Softening of jewellery sales was apparently caused by unfavourable macroeconomic conditions. This is a negative factor for diamond demand
#steel #diamonds
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
📉CISA mills daily crude steel output fell 1.7% in late October from the second ten days of the month. However, this represented a 16.9% YoY increase. Steel inventories contracted 7% through the period (still 28.3% above the 2021 level, as of 31 October). This suggests that apparent steel consumption might have shown some signs of recovery
💍US jewellery and watch sales were up 1.3% YoY in September, according to data from the US Department of Commerce. This was the weakest growth since June 2020. The growth rate decelerated from the revised 3.0% YoY increase in August (+3.7% YoY was previously reported). Softening of jewellery sales was apparently caused by unfavourable macroeconomic conditions. This is a negative factor for diamond demand
#steel #diamonds
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 1)
🚘Global EV sales (passenger cars and light-duty vehicles) increased 58% YoY in September (vs. +70% YoY in August), according to Rho Motion. The growth was mainly driven by the 94% YoY increase in China sales. US EV sales rose 56% YoY (vs. +53% YoY in August). At the same time, EV sales in the EU grew 16% YoY, accelerating from the 5% YoY increase in August. The robust performance of global EV sales is supportive for the demand for battery metals (nickel, lithium and cobalt)
💍Hong Kong jewellery and watch sales rose 8% YoY in September, following the 3% YoY increase in August. The increase reflected the second tranche of consumption vouchers, distributed in late August, according to Rapaport. This might be slightly positive for diamond demand
#EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt #diamonds
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
🚘Global EV sales (passenger cars and light-duty vehicles) increased 58% YoY in September (vs. +70% YoY in August), according to Rho Motion. The growth was mainly driven by the 94% YoY increase in China sales. US EV sales rose 56% YoY (vs. +53% YoY in August). At the same time, EV sales in the EU grew 16% YoY, accelerating from the 5% YoY increase in August. The robust performance of global EV sales is supportive for the demand for battery metals (nickel, lithium and cobalt)
💍Hong Kong jewellery and watch sales rose 8% YoY in September, following the 3% YoY increase in August. The increase reflected the second tranche of consumption vouchers, distributed in late August, according to Rapaport. This might be slightly positive for diamond demand
#EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt #diamonds
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
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Morning Bites (part 2)
📉Chile’s copper production fell 4% YoY in September (vs. -9% YoY in August), the 14th consecutive month to show a YoY decline. The steady contraction of the country’s copper production might have been caused by grade depletion and the continuing drought. We note that Chile accounts for ~27% of global mine copper supply
#copper
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Copper
📉Chile’s copper production fell 4% YoY in September (vs. -9% YoY in August), the 14th consecutive month to show a YoY decline. The steady contraction of the country’s copper production might have been caused by grade depletion and the continuing drought. We note that Chile accounts for ~27% of global mine copper supply
#copper
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Copper
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Morning Bites
🏗China’s domestic excavator sales decreased 10% YoY in October, with the decline rate decelerating from 25% YoY in September. Meanwhile, total excavator sales (domestic + export) rose 8% YoY in October, accelerating from the 5% YoY increase in September. As a leading indicator of construction activity, sluggish domestic excavator sales imply that China’s property sector might remain weak in the short term, which could be negative for China’s demand for industrial metals, and in particular for steel. However, we also note that the decline rate of China’s domestic excavator sales has been decelerating for several months
#global
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
🏗China’s domestic excavator sales decreased 10% YoY in October, with the decline rate decelerating from 25% YoY in September. Meanwhile, total excavator sales (domestic + export) rose 8% YoY in October, accelerating from the 5% YoY increase in September. As a leading indicator of construction activity, sluggish domestic excavator sales imply that China’s property sector might remain weak in the short term, which could be negative for China’s demand for industrial metals, and in particular for steel. However, we also note that the decline rate of China’s domestic excavator sales has been decelerating for several months
#global
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Kinross 3Q22 results - worse than expected
💰3Q22 revenues were up 47% YoY, which was 10% below our forecast due to lower than expected sales volumes. 3Q22 EBITDA was up 98% YoY (-24% vs. consensus; -19% vs. our forecast), mainly due to lower than expected revenues
💵In 3Q22, AISC per gold equivalent ounce sold fell 6% YoY (-4% QoQ) to USD 1,282/oz
⛏The company revised its 2022 and 2023 gold production guidance down 7% and 9%, respectively, due to operational issues at La Coipa and Tasiast. Meanwhile, the company reiterated its 2022 AISC guidance of USD 1,240/oz
❗️On our numbers, the company’s 4Q22 adjusted EBITDA might show a mild double-digit QoQ decline, at spot prices, affected by subdued production
$K #gold
https://metals-wire.com:3000/company/K_CN/
💰3Q22 revenues were up 47% YoY, which was 10% below our forecast due to lower than expected sales volumes. 3Q22 EBITDA was up 98% YoY (-24% vs. consensus; -19% vs. our forecast), mainly due to lower than expected revenues
💵In 3Q22, AISC per gold equivalent ounce sold fell 6% YoY (-4% QoQ) to USD 1,282/oz
⛏The company revised its 2022 and 2023 gold production guidance down 7% and 9%, respectively, due to operational issues at La Coipa and Tasiast. Meanwhile, the company reiterated its 2022 AISC guidance of USD 1,240/oz
❗️On our numbers, the company’s 4Q22 adjusted EBITDA might show a mild double-digit QoQ decline, at spot prices, affected by subdued production
$K #gold
https://metals-wire.com:3000/company/K_CN/
ArcelorMittal 3Q22 results: EBITDA above consensus
💰3Q22 revenues were down 6% YoY, which was 1% below our forecast, with lower than expected sales volumes being offset by higher than expected average realised prices
💰3Q22 EBITDA fell 56% YoY (+15% vs. consensus; +21% vs. our forecast). The significant deviation of EBITDA was caused by 4% lower than expected pre-EBITDA costs
❗️ArcelorMittal expects its variable costs per tonne to decline QoQ in 4Q22, but less than the revenue per tonne. At the same time, the company sees steel demand improvement in 4Q22 after the current destocking phase has passed
❗️On our numbers, the company’s 4Q22 EBITDA might be below the 3Q22 level, at spot prices
$MT #steel
https://metals-wire.com:3000/company/MT_US/
💰3Q22 revenues were down 6% YoY, which was 1% below our forecast, with lower than expected sales volumes being offset by higher than expected average realised prices
💰3Q22 EBITDA fell 56% YoY (+15% vs. consensus; +21% vs. our forecast). The significant deviation of EBITDA was caused by 4% lower than expected pre-EBITDA costs
❗️ArcelorMittal expects its variable costs per tonne to decline QoQ in 4Q22, but less than the revenue per tonne. At the same time, the company sees steel demand improvement in 4Q22 after the current destocking phase has passed
❗️On our numbers, the company’s 4Q22 EBITDA might be below the 3Q22 level, at spot prices
$MT #steel
https://metals-wire.com:3000/company/MT_US/
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Morning Bites
🏦China’s aggregate financing dropped 43% YoY in October, falling 43% short of the consensus estimate. Traditional bank loans dropped 26% YoY, underperforming the market forecast by 23%. According to Bloomberg, the credit contraction suggests a continued economic slowdown and property market slump. We also note that China’s plans to adhere to its zero-COVID policy might impede the prospects for an economic recovery, which would be negative for the demand for industrial metals
📈Peru’s copper production rose 13.5% YoY in September, reversing from the 1.5% YoY decline in August. According to the Ministry of Energy and Mines of Peru, the increase in production was mainly driven by the improved performance of Antamina (+11.9% YoY) and Cerro Verde (+18.2% YoY). The output growth seems a one-off event, since there was no significant capacity expansion that month. We note that Peru accounts for ~11% of global mine copper supply
#global #copper
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🏦China’s aggregate financing dropped 43% YoY in October, falling 43% short of the consensus estimate. Traditional bank loans dropped 26% YoY, underperforming the market forecast by 23%. According to Bloomberg, the credit contraction suggests a continued economic slowdown and property market slump. We also note that China’s plans to adhere to its zero-COVID policy might impede the prospects for an economic recovery, which would be negative for the demand for industrial metals
📈Peru’s copper production rose 13.5% YoY in September, reversing from the 1.5% YoY decline in August. According to the Ministry of Energy and Mines of Peru, the increase in production was mainly driven by the improved performance of Antamina (+11.9% YoY) and Cerro Verde (+18.2% YoY). The output growth seems a one-off event, since there was no significant capacity expansion that month. We note that Peru accounts for ~11% of global mine copper supply
#global #copper
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Morning Bites
💍Richemont jewellery segment sales were up 29% YoY in 3Q22, with the growth rate accelerating from 20% YoY in 2Q22. According to the company, there was growth in all regions, while Europe and Japan showed the strongest performances. The company did not provide any clear outlook on future sales, though it noted that the jewellery industry would likely face volatile times amid the economic uncertainty, which is in line with our view
#diamonds
💍Richemont jewellery segment sales were up 29% YoY in 3Q22, with the growth rate accelerating from 20% YoY in 2Q22. According to the company, there was growth in all regions, while Europe and Japan showed the strongest performances. The company did not provide any clear outlook on future sales, though it noted that the jewellery industry would likely face volatile times amid the economic uncertainty, which is in line with our view
#diamonds
Week ahead data releases in M&M
As the reporting season comes to an end, among the major miners only SQM is due to release its 3Q22 earnings this week. As concerns SQM’s 3Q22 EBITDA, our forecast is slightly above the consensus estimate
#reporting_season
https://metals-wire.com:3000/events
As the reporting season comes to an end, among the major miners only SQM is due to release its 3Q22 earnings this week. As concerns SQM’s 3Q22 EBITDA, our forecast is slightly above the consensus estimate
#reporting_season
https://metals-wire.com:3000/events
🗞Today China has published its industrial production data for October (see the table above)
#statistics #China
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
#statistics #China
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 1)
🔗China’s crude steel output rose 11% YoY in October, decelerating from the 18% YoY in September. The growth in annual terms is generally due the low base effect. In October 2022, apparent steel consumption rose 10% YoY, decelerating from the 18% YoY increase in September. On our numbers, 10mo22 production was down 2.3% YoY. China is on track to reach its goal of flat or lower steel output in 2022 YoY
🏢China's property sales fell 21% YoY in October (vs. -16% YoY in September). Floor space starts were down 35% YoY in October, after the 44% YoY drop in September. Similarly, personal mortgage loans were down 31% YoY in October (vs. -18% in September). At the same time, property completions declined 9% YoY in October (vs. -6% YoY in September). While we have not yet seen any substantial measures that might bring about a recovery in the Chinese real estate sector, Beijing's recent announcement could slightly support sentiment
#steel #property
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Steel
🔗China’s crude steel output rose 11% YoY in October, decelerating from the 18% YoY in September. The growth in annual terms is generally due the low base effect. In October 2022, apparent steel consumption rose 10% YoY, decelerating from the 18% YoY increase in September. On our numbers, 10mo22 production was down 2.3% YoY. China is on track to reach its goal of flat or lower steel output in 2022 YoY
🏢China's property sales fell 21% YoY in October (vs. -16% YoY in September). Floor space starts were down 35% YoY in October, after the 44% YoY drop in September. Similarly, personal mortgage loans were down 31% YoY in October (vs. -18% in September). At the same time, property completions declined 9% YoY in October (vs. -6% YoY in September). While we have not yet seen any substantial measures that might bring about a recovery in the Chinese real estate sector, Beijing's recent announcement could slightly support sentiment
#steel #property
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Steel
Morning Bites (Part 2)
💎India’s rough diamond net imports dropped 32% YoY in October, accelerating from the 7% YoY decline in September. Similarly, India’s polished diamond net exports were down 26% YoY in October (vs. +14% YoY in September). According to GJEPC chairman, Vipul Shah, the slowdown in the EU, the interest rate hike in the US and the zero Covid policy in China are challenges for the diamond sector. We reiterate our view that the unfavourable macroeconomic conditions may adversely affect upcoming diamond sales on the YoY basis.
At the same time, India’s lab-grown rough diamond net imports were down 49% YoY in October (vs +4% YoY in September). The share of lab-grown net rough imports in natural diamond imports declined to 5% in October, from 7% in September.
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
💎India’s rough diamond net imports dropped 32% YoY in October, accelerating from the 7% YoY decline in September. Similarly, India’s polished diamond net exports were down 26% YoY in October (vs. +14% YoY in September). According to GJEPC chairman, Vipul Shah, the slowdown in the EU, the interest rate hike in the US and the zero Covid policy in China are challenges for the diamond sector. We reiterate our view that the unfavourable macroeconomic conditions may adversely affect upcoming diamond sales on the YoY basis.
At the same time, India’s lab-grown rough diamond net imports were down 49% YoY in October (vs +4% YoY in September). The share of lab-grown net rough imports in natural diamond imports declined to 5% in October, from 7% in September.
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
🗓3Q22 reporting season - concluding remarks
📉On average, the 3Q22 EBITDA results of major miners came 12% below the consensus estimates and our forecasts. This deviation was mainly driven by lower than expected revenues, while absolute pre-EBITDA costs were roughly in line with our expectations.
🌊The revenue underperformance was driven by lower than expected sales volumes due to weak demand for metals amid the unfavourable macroeconomic conditions. Meanwhile, realised prices met our expectations, on average.
💵It is worth noting that, since sales volumes were lower than we expected and the absolute pre-EBITDA costs were in line with our forecasts, the unit costs significantly exceeded our estimates.
#reporting_season
https://metals-wire.com:3000/events
📉On average, the 3Q22 EBITDA results of major miners came 12% below the consensus estimates and our forecasts. This deviation was mainly driven by lower than expected revenues, while absolute pre-EBITDA costs were roughly in line with our expectations.
🌊The revenue underperformance was driven by lower than expected sales volumes due to weak demand for metals amid the unfavourable macroeconomic conditions. Meanwhile, realised prices met our expectations, on average.
💵It is worth noting that, since sales volumes were lower than we expected and the absolute pre-EBITDA costs were in line with our forecasts, the unit costs significantly exceeded our estimates.
#reporting_season
https://metals-wire.com:3000/events
Morning Bites (part 1)
💍According to MasterCard SpendingPulse, preliminary US jewellery sales shrank 4% YoY in October, after the 1% YoY increase in September. Of note, if these estimates materialise, October will show negative YoY dynamics for the first time since May 2020. Meanwhile, we reiterate our concern that the currently unfavourable economic conditions pose risks to jewellery sales and diamond demand. In addition, luxury goods sales (excluding jewellery) are also expected to be down 9% YoY in October
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
💍According to MasterCard SpendingPulse, preliminary US jewellery sales shrank 4% YoY in October, after the 1% YoY increase in September. Of note, if these estimates materialise, October will show negative YoY dynamics for the first time since May 2020. Meanwhile, we reiterate our concern that the currently unfavourable economic conditions pose risks to jewellery sales and diamond demand. In addition, luxury goods sales (excluding jewellery) are also expected to be down 9% YoY in October
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Morning bites (part 2)
⛏Tesla-backed Goro nickel mine has been forced to curtail its production in 4Q22, as heavy rain caused a “limited release of salt-laden liquid” from its tailing dam. Goro mine produced 1.3% of global nickel in 2020. However, the impact on 2022 world output is likely to be rather limited, as the company expects to meet the minimum quantities required by its customer contracts and return to full capacity shortly. We note that LME Nickel prices jumped 7% on Tuesday amid the miner's supply concerns
#Nickel
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
⛏Tesla-backed Goro nickel mine has been forced to curtail its production in 4Q22, as heavy rain caused a “limited release of salt-laden liquid” from its tailing dam. Goro mine produced 1.3% of global nickel in 2020. However, the impact on 2022 world output is likely to be rather limited, as the company expects to meet the minimum quantities required by its customer contracts and return to full capacity shortly. We note that LME Nickel prices jumped 7% on Tuesday amid the miner's supply concerns
#Nickel
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports