Peabody Energy 4Q22 results - moderately positive
✏️Peabody's 4Q22 revenue has materially outperformed both the consensus and us, mainly due to higher realised coal prices across most of the company’s divisions, which offset a hefty cash cost per ton increase of 26% QoQ (37% above our forecast). As a result, EBITDA remained higher than market expectations (+3% vs. the consensus and +6% vs. us)
❗️Regarding the outlook for 2023, the company expects its coal sales to grow ~6% YoY. However, the average cost burden is to grow in the low-double digits from the already elevated 4Q22 level
📊In our view, at spot, the company’s 1Q23 EBITDA is likely to be moderately lower QoQ, due softer sales volumes (amid weather effects and the planned movement of a longwall at one of the mines)
#BTU #coal
https://metals-wire.com:3000/company/BTU_US/
✏️Peabody's 4Q22 revenue has materially outperformed both the consensus and us, mainly due to higher realised coal prices across most of the company’s divisions, which offset a hefty cash cost per ton increase of 26% QoQ (37% above our forecast). As a result, EBITDA remained higher than market expectations (+3% vs. the consensus and +6% vs. us)
❗️Regarding the outlook for 2023, the company expects its coal sales to grow ~6% YoY. However, the average cost burden is to grow in the low-double digits from the already elevated 4Q22 level
📊In our view, at spot, the company’s 1Q23 EBITDA is likely to be moderately lower QoQ, due softer sales volumes (amid weather effects and the planned movement of a longwall at one of the mines)
#BTU #coal
https://metals-wire.com:3000/company/BTU_US/
Morning Bites (part 1)
🏆Turkey is partially suspending gold imports, Bloomberg reports, citing a government-related source, as an emergency measure to help the local economy overcome the aftermath of the recent earthquakes. According to World Gold Council (WGC), Turkey's central bank was the biggest identified buyer of gold in 2022 (+147.6t) among institutions (13% of their purchases) and represented 3% of world physical gold demand. Although the country’s Treasury and Finance Ministry declined to comment, the news might add some stress to the bullish gold case
#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
🏆Turkey is partially suspending gold imports, Bloomberg reports, citing a government-related source, as an emergency measure to help the local economy overcome the aftermath of the recent earthquakes. According to World Gold Council (WGC), Turkey's central bank was the biggest identified buyer of gold in 2022 (+147.6t) among institutions (13% of their purchases) and represented 3% of world physical gold demand. Although the country’s Treasury and Finance Ministry declined to comment, the news might add some stress to the bullish gold case
#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
Morning Bites (part 2)
🔗The twin earthquakes in Turkey have temporarily shut down steel production in the affected regions, Bloomberg reports, citing Veysel Yayan, the Secretary General of the Turkish Steel Producers Association. On our numbers, the idled enterprises might account for up to 32% of the country’s steel capacity. Furthermore, according to the association, steel mills in the Hatay and Osmaniye regions might remain shut until late-February or mid-March. Although there was no significant damage to the plants, many employees died or lost family members. In 2022, Turkey accounted for 1.9% of global crude steel production, so idling production is unlikely to have a substantial effect on the global steel market, in our view
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🔗The twin earthquakes in Turkey have temporarily shut down steel production in the affected regions, Bloomberg reports, citing Veysel Yayan, the Secretary General of the Turkish Steel Producers Association. On our numbers, the idled enterprises might account for up to 32% of the country’s steel capacity. Furthermore, according to the association, steel mills in the Hatay and Osmaniye regions might remain shut until late-February or mid-March. Although there was no significant damage to the plants, many employees died or lost family members. In 2022, Turkey accounted for 1.9% of global crude steel production, so idling production is unlikely to have a substantial effect on the global steel market, in our view
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🦄1
Morning Bites (part 3)
💎De Beers' diamond deal with Botswana is under risk, as the country's government is ready to quit discussions, according to Bloomberg. The parties have been negotiating for a new agreement since 2018 (the current deal expires in June) particularly on the sales of rough diamonds from De Beers (~28% of the world supply in 2022F). The Botswanan president, Mokgweetsi Masisi, is pushing to purchase up to 50% of the stones mined in the joint venture between the African country and De Beers (vs. the 25% limit, as of today). Botswana accounts for ~70% of De Beers’ rough production: hence, in our view, some material volume of the global rough diamond supply might be at risk, if the parties fail to reach an agreement. To recap, under the 2011 deal, De Beers received 90% of the rough diamonds produced, while in 2020, its share was decreased to 75%
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💎De Beers' diamond deal with Botswana is under risk, as the country's government is ready to quit discussions, according to Bloomberg. The parties have been negotiating for a new agreement since 2018 (the current deal expires in June) particularly on the sales of rough diamonds from De Beers (~28% of the world supply in 2022F). The Botswanan president, Mokgweetsi Masisi, is pushing to purchase up to 50% of the stones mined in the joint venture between the African country and De Beers (vs. the 25% limit, as of today). Botswana accounts for ~70% of De Beers’ rough production: hence, in our view, some material volume of the global rough diamond supply might be at risk, if the parties fail to reach an agreement. To recap, under the 2011 deal, De Beers received 90% of the rough diamonds produced, while in 2020, its share was decreased to 75%
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
✍1
Fortescue results for fiscal 1H23 - in line with us
📝Fortescue's fiscal 1H23 revenues came broadly in line with us, but were 4% above consensus. EBITDA was also in line with us, while beating the consensus estimates by 10%
📌Fortescue's C1 cash cost grew 5% HoH and 15% YoY, generally in line with our estimates. The company expects a further ~10% HoH increase in its C1 cost in 2H23 (the FY23 cost guidance was confirmed at USD 18-18.75/wmt), although that is not going to undermine its leading positions on the global cash cost curve
📌At spot prices, EBITDA in fiscal 2H23 might be substantially above 1H23 due to the conducive prices environment, we think
#FMG #iron
https://metals-wire.com/company/FMG_AU/
📝Fortescue's fiscal 1H23 revenues came broadly in line with us, but were 4% above consensus. EBITDA was also in line with us, while beating the consensus estimates by 10%
📌Fortescue's C1 cash cost grew 5% HoH and 15% YoY, generally in line with our estimates. The company expects a further ~10% HoH increase in its C1 cost in 2H23 (the FY23 cost guidance was confirmed at USD 18-18.75/wmt), although that is not going to undermine its leading positions on the global cash cost curve
📌At spot prices, EBITDA in fiscal 2H23 might be substantially above 1H23 due to the conducive prices environment, we think
#FMG #iron
https://metals-wire.com/company/FMG_AU/
👍1
First Quantum 4Q22 results - EBITDA slightly below consensus
📝Although the company's 4Q22 revenues beat market expectations (+3% vs. consensus), EBITDA came in 6% below. However, the financials were roughly in line with our numbers
📌First Quantum's cash cost grew 4% QoQ and 19% YoY, for the most part in line with our expectations. In addition, the C1 costs might see a further increase in the mid-single digits in 2023, compared with the 4Q22 level, based on the miner’s guidance
🏭Regarding the company’s outlook for 2023, the copper production might grow ~4% YoY, while gold output could remain relatively flat. At the same time, nickel production at Ravensthorpe could surge >15% YoY
📌At spot prices, the miner's 1Q23 EBITDA might be moderately stronger QoQ, we calculate, amid potentially higher realised copper prices at its key assets
#FM #copper
https://metals-wire.com/company/FM_CN/
📝Although the company's 4Q22 revenues beat market expectations (+3% vs. consensus), EBITDA came in 6% below. However, the financials were roughly in line with our numbers
📌First Quantum's cash cost grew 4% QoQ and 19% YoY, for the most part in line with our expectations. In addition, the C1 costs might see a further increase in the mid-single digits in 2023, compared with the 4Q22 level, based on the miner’s guidance
🏭Regarding the company’s outlook for 2023, the copper production might grow ~4% YoY, while gold output could remain relatively flat. At the same time, nickel production at Ravensthorpe could surge >15% YoY
📌At spot prices, the miner's 1Q23 EBITDA might be moderately stronger QoQ, we calculate, amid potentially higher realised copper prices at its key assets
#FM #copper
https://metals-wire.com/company/FM_CN/
🎉1
Barrick 4Q22 results - EBITDA above consensus, new buyback declared
📝Barrick's 4Q22 revenue came in line with consensus and us (the company had already reported condensed operating numbers), while EBITDA outperformed consensus estimates by 6%, in line with our forecast
📉The company's AISC slightly decreased QoQ to USD 1,242/oz; Barrick expects a further ~2-3% correction in 2023F vs. 4Q22
💰Barrick announced a new USD 1bn programme for 2023, which offers a ~3.2% annual yield
📌The company's 2023 production guidance was the same as for 2022 and implies a 2-11% output increase
📌At spot prices, Barrick's 1Q23F EBITDA would show a double-digit increase, on our numbers, reflecting higher gold quotes vs. the 4Q22 average
#GOLD #gold
https://metals-wire.com/company/GOLD_US/
📝Barrick's 4Q22 revenue came in line with consensus and us (the company had already reported condensed operating numbers), while EBITDA outperformed consensus estimates by 6%, in line with our forecast
📉The company's AISC slightly decreased QoQ to USD 1,242/oz; Barrick expects a further ~2-3% correction in 2023F vs. 4Q22
💰Barrick announced a new USD 1bn programme for 2023, which offers a ~3.2% annual yield
📌The company's 2023 production guidance was the same as for 2022 and implies a 2-11% output increase
📌At spot prices, Barrick's 1Q23F EBITDA would show a double-digit increase, on our numbers, reflecting higher gold quotes vs. the 4Q22 average
#GOLD #gold
https://metals-wire.com/company/GOLD_US/
👍1
Glencore 2H22 results - below estimates, despite record earnings
📝Glencore's 2H22 revenues substantially underperformed both the consensus and us (by 23% and 15%, respectively) due to lower than expected proceeds from marketing activities. Meanwhile, the EBITDA miss was not so large (-5% vs consensus and -6% vs. us)
📌Concerning the company's 2023 guidance, own copper production might shrink ~2% YoY, while the figure for zinc and coal is to stay roughly unchanged
💰Meanwhile, the company has announced a new USD 1.5bn buyback programme for 2023, which implies a ~1.8% annual yield
📌At spot prices and following the recent correction in thermal coal prices, Glencore's 1H23F EBITDA might show a single digit drop QoQ, according to our estimates
#GLEN #copper
https://metals-wire.com/company/GLEN_LN/
📝Glencore's 2H22 revenues substantially underperformed both the consensus and us (by 23% and 15%, respectively) due to lower than expected proceeds from marketing activities. Meanwhile, the EBITDA miss was not so large (-5% vs consensus and -6% vs. us)
📌Concerning the company's 2023 guidance, own copper production might shrink ~2% YoY, while the figure for zinc and coal is to stay roughly unchanged
💰Meanwhile, the company has announced a new USD 1.5bn buyback programme for 2023, which implies a ~1.8% annual yield
📌At spot prices and following the recent correction in thermal coal prices, Glencore's 1H23F EBITDA might show a single digit drop QoQ, according to our estimates
#GLEN #copper
https://metals-wire.com/company/GLEN_LN/
💯1
Morning Bites
🚗💨Internal combustion engine (ICE) car registrations in the EU rose 3% YoY in 4Q22 from the low base, reversing from the 4% YoY decline in 3Q22. Petrol car sales were up 5% YoY in 4Q22 (vs. -3% YoY in 3Q22), while diesel car registrations dropped 1% YoY (vs. -5% YoY). Diesel cars accounted for 28% of ICE car sales in 4Q22 (roughly unchanged QoQ and YoY). Overall, the stagnant sales dynamics are unfavourable for PGMs, as the EU represents 20% and 31% of global Pd and Pt autocatalyst demand, respectively
🚘EU+UK EV sales surged 31% YoY in 4Q22, accelerating from the 5% YoY growth in 3Q22. In particular, BEV sales gained 36% YoY (vs. +16% YoY in 3Q22), while PHEV sales rose 22% YoY (vs. -9% YoY). The share of BEVs in total EV sales grew slightly to 64% in 4Q22, from 62% in 3Q22. Overall, the upbeat local EV sales are likely to have a positive effect on the demand for battery metals (such as nickel, lithium and cobalt)
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
🚗💨Internal combustion engine (ICE) car registrations in the EU rose 3% YoY in 4Q22 from the low base, reversing from the 4% YoY decline in 3Q22. Petrol car sales were up 5% YoY in 4Q22 (vs. -3% YoY in 3Q22), while diesel car registrations dropped 1% YoY (vs. -5% YoY). Diesel cars accounted for 28% of ICE car sales in 4Q22 (roughly unchanged QoQ and YoY). Overall, the stagnant sales dynamics are unfavourable for PGMs, as the EU represents 20% and 31% of global Pd and Pt autocatalyst demand, respectively
🚘EU+UK EV sales surged 31% YoY in 4Q22, accelerating from the 5% YoY growth in 3Q22. In particular, BEV sales gained 36% YoY (vs. +16% YoY in 3Q22), while PHEV sales rose 22% YoY (vs. -9% YoY). The share of BEVs in total EV sales grew slightly to 64% in 4Q22, from 62% in 3Q22. Overall, the upbeat local EV sales are likely to have a positive effect on the demand for battery metals (such as nickel, lithium and cobalt)
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
🦄3
Newcrest Mining 2H22 results - EBITDA disappoints
📝The miner's CY 2H22 revenues were moderately below consensus and us (by 4% and 6%, respectively). The EBITDA miss was even deeper (-18% vs consensus and -8% vs. us), mostly due to the >15% higher than expected cost per ton at Newcrest's top-producing Cadia and Lihir assets
📌The company reiterated its FY23 guidance, with CY 1H23 copper and gold production both growing by some 15% HoH
💰Meanwhile, the company has declared an upbeat USD 0.35/sh dividend (interim + special) to be paid in March 2023, which implies a good 2.1% DY
📌At spot, taking into account potentially higher output and commodity prices, we expect Newcrest's CY 1H23F EBITDA to materially improve HoH
#NCM #copper
https://metals-wire.com/company/NCM_AU/
📝The miner's CY 2H22 revenues were moderately below consensus and us (by 4% and 6%, respectively). The EBITDA miss was even deeper (-18% vs consensus and -8% vs. us), mostly due to the >15% higher than expected cost per ton at Newcrest's top-producing Cadia and Lihir assets
📌The company reiterated its FY23 guidance, with CY 1H23 copper and gold production both growing by some 15% HoH
💰Meanwhile, the company has declared an upbeat USD 0.35/sh dividend (interim + special) to be paid in March 2023, which implies a good 2.1% DY
📌At spot, taking into account potentially higher output and commodity prices, we expect Newcrest's CY 1H23F EBITDA to materially improve HoH
#NCM #copper
https://metals-wire.com/company/NCM_AU/
South32 2H22 results - overall positive
📝The company's underlying revenues in CY 2H22 were slightly weaker than we had expected (-4% vs. us, and in-line with the consensus). At the same time, EBITDA was better (+6% vs. consensus and +9% vs. us), due to lower costs per ton across the main divisions and positive inter-group adjustments
📌Meanwhile, the miner's FY23 production guidance remains unchanged: CY 1H23 aluminium and coal output is to grow 5% and 10% HoH, respectively
📌On our numbers, at spot, South32's CY 1H23F EBITDA is to enjoy double-digit growth HoH, amid the guided production increase and the recent recovery in coking coal and nickel prices
#S32 #aluminium
https://metals-wire.com/company/S32_AU/
📝The company's underlying revenues in CY 2H22 were slightly weaker than we had expected (-4% vs. us, and in-line with the consensus). At the same time, EBITDA was better (+6% vs. consensus and +9% vs. us), due to lower costs per ton across the main divisions and positive inter-group adjustments
📌Meanwhile, the miner's FY23 production guidance remains unchanged: CY 1H23 aluminium and coal output is to grow 5% and 10% HoH, respectively
📌On our numbers, at spot, South32's CY 1H23F EBITDA is to enjoy double-digit growth HoH, amid the guided production increase and the recent recovery in coking coal and nickel prices
#S32 #aluminium
https://metals-wire.com/company/S32_AU/
Morning Bites
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production grew 3.8% to 2.06mnt in early-February, from the last ten days of January. This was 7.2% higher YoY, vs. the 1.3% YoY decline in the previous ten days. Meanwhile, local steel inventories grew 9.4% over the period (7.0% above the 2022 level, as of 10 February), which implies that the local demand for steel is still rather weak. We remind our readers that China has recently published strong financial data for January (historically, the most important month). That, in our view, might bolster domestic construction activity and, hence, demand for industrial metals in 2023
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production grew 3.8% to 2.06mnt in early-February, from the last ten days of January. This was 7.2% higher YoY, vs. the 1.3% YoY decline in the previous ten days. Meanwhile, local steel inventories grew 9.4% over the period (7.0% above the 2022 level, as of 10 February), which implies that the local demand for steel is still rather weak. We remind our readers that China has recently published strong financial data for January (historically, the most important month). That, in our view, might bolster domestic construction activity and, hence, demand for industrial metals in 2023
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
Vale 4Q22 results - above market expectations
📝Vale's revenues in 4Q22 were stronger than both our and consensus expectations (by 8% and 5%, respectively), mostly due to a realised iron ore price that was >10% above our forecast. Despite the stronger top-line figure, cash costs per ton increased even more, which limited the positive effect on EBITDA (+3% vs. consensus and -1% vs. us)
⛏To recap, the company expects to increase iron ore production 2% YoY in 2023. However, nickel output is likely to shrink 6% YoY, due to depletion of the Ovoid mine and expansion delays
💰The company's BoD has approved USD 1.6bn of dividends to be paid in March 2023, which implies a DY of some 2.0%
📌On our numbers, at spot, Vale's 1Q23F EBITDA might be materially stronger QoQ, supported by the recent recovery in iron ore prices
#VALE #Iron_ore
https://metals-wire.com/company/VALE_US/
📝Vale's revenues in 4Q22 were stronger than both our and consensus expectations (by 8% and 5%, respectively), mostly due to a realised iron ore price that was >10% above our forecast. Despite the stronger top-line figure, cash costs per ton increased even more, which limited the positive effect on EBITDA (+3% vs. consensus and -1% vs. us)
⛏To recap, the company expects to increase iron ore production 2% YoY in 2023. However, nickel output is likely to shrink 6% YoY, due to depletion of the Ovoid mine and expansion delays
💰The company's BoD has approved USD 1.6bn of dividends to be paid in March 2023, which implies a DY of some 2.0%
📌On our numbers, at spot, Vale's 1Q23F EBITDA might be materially stronger QoQ, supported by the recent recovery in iron ore prices
#VALE #Iron_ore
https://metals-wire.com/company/VALE_US/
🔥1
Agnico Eagle 4Q22 results - missed forecasts
📝The goldminer posted weaker 4Q22 revenues than the consensus and we had expected (by 3% and 6%, respectively), driven by lower grades at several mines. The EBITDA miss was more dramatic (-5% vs consensus and -15% vs. us), affected by >5% higher cash costs per ounce
⛏According to Agnico's production guidance, its gold output is likely to be 6% and 10% higher (on average) in 2023 and 2024, respectively, than in FY22
📈However, the company sees an increase of ~9% YoY in total cash costs per ounce in 2023, due to inflationary pressures. Management expects this figure to decline in 2024-25
📌At spot, we expect Agnico Eagle's 1Q23F EBITDA to show some improvement QoQ, bolstered by higher gold prices and the slight production recovery
#AEM #gold
https://metals-wire.com/company/AEM_US/
📝The goldminer posted weaker 4Q22 revenues than the consensus and we had expected (by 3% and 6%, respectively), driven by lower grades at several mines. The EBITDA miss was more dramatic (-5% vs consensus and -15% vs. us), affected by >5% higher cash costs per ounce
⛏According to Agnico's production guidance, its gold output is likely to be 6% and 10% higher (on average) in 2023 and 2024, respectively, than in FY22
📈However, the company sees an increase of ~9% YoY in total cash costs per ounce in 2023, due to inflationary pressures. Management expects this figure to decline in 2024-25
📌At spot, we expect Agnico Eagle's 1Q23F EBITDA to show some improvement QoQ, bolstered by higher gold prices and the slight production recovery
#AEM #gold
https://metals-wire.com/company/AEM_US/
Week ahead data releases in M&M
This week, many global M&M names are to report their financials. We believe that the consensus is slightly bullish in its profitability forecasts for large miners, such as BHP, Rio Tinto and Anglo American
#reporting_season
https://metals-wire.com:3000/events
This week, many global M&M names are to report their financials. We believe that the consensus is slightly bullish in its profitability forecasts for large miners, such as BHP, Rio Tinto and Anglo American
#reporting_season
https://metals-wire.com:3000/events
Morning Bites (part 1)
💎India’s rough diamond net imports fell 33% YoY in January, accelerating from the -27% YoY in December. Simultaneously, India’s polished diamond net exports declined 31% YoY (vs. -28% YoY in December). According to GJEPC Chairman Vipul Shah, Surat's diamond manufacturers (~90% of global polished stones supply) are working at 60% capacity, with ~20,000 employees laid off, as orders have dried up – particularly, from the US. Hence, we reiterate our view that the diamond sector is likely to remain stressed (at least in the short term), amid unfavourable macroeconomic conditions globally and the material decrease in De Beers’ recent rough sales
Meanwhile, India’s lab-grown rough diamond net imports decreased 8% YoY in January (vs. 12% YoY in December). However, the share of lab-grown net rough imports in natural diamond imports jumped to 17% in January (vs. 12% a year ago)
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💎India’s rough diamond net imports fell 33% YoY in January, accelerating from the -27% YoY in December. Simultaneously, India’s polished diamond net exports declined 31% YoY (vs. -28% YoY in December). According to GJEPC Chairman Vipul Shah, Surat's diamond manufacturers (~90% of global polished stones supply) are working at 60% capacity, with ~20,000 employees laid off, as orders have dried up – particularly, from the US. Hence, we reiterate our view that the diamond sector is likely to remain stressed (at least in the short term), amid unfavourable macroeconomic conditions globally and the material decrease in De Beers’ recent rough sales
Meanwhile, India’s lab-grown rough diamond net imports decreased 8% YoY in January (vs. 12% YoY in December). However, the share of lab-grown net rough imports in natural diamond imports jumped to 17% in January (vs. 12% a year ago)
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites (part 2)
⚡️Power use by Peru’s key copper mines has plunged in February, following the local political unrest, Reuters reports. Based on the country's energy data, MMG's Las Bambas (1.5% of world copper supply) and Glencore's Antapaccay (0.7%) mines are currently the most affected, consuming half of their normal power usage. Meanwhile, the dynamics at other major pits (e.g. Antamina and Cerro Verde) are quite stable. Overall, the news might add some support to the sentiment on copper, especially amid the historically low level of inventories and the potential recovery in China's demand
⛔️First Quantum's Panama copper mine might halt operations on 23 February, according to a Reuter's source. Overall, this is in line with the company's recent statement. To recap, Cobre Panama (1.5% of global copper output) is running out of storage space, as the local maritime authority has ordered the stoppage of metal loadings at port due to certification issues
#copper
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Copper
⚡️Power use by Peru’s key copper mines has plunged in February, following the local political unrest, Reuters reports. Based on the country's energy data, MMG's Las Bambas (1.5% of world copper supply) and Glencore's Antapaccay (0.7%) mines are currently the most affected, consuming half of their normal power usage. Meanwhile, the dynamics at other major pits (e.g. Antamina and Cerro Verde) are quite stable. Overall, the news might add some support to the sentiment on copper, especially amid the historically low level of inventories and the potential recovery in China's demand
⛔️First Quantum's Panama copper mine might halt operations on 23 February, according to a Reuter's source. Overall, this is in line with the company's recent statement. To recap, Cobre Panama (1.5% of global copper output) is running out of storage space, as the local maritime authority has ordered the stoppage of metal loadings at port due to certification issues
#copper
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Copper
Anglo American Platinum 2H22 results - overall weak
📝The PGM miner's 2H22 revenues came in slightly more upbeat than we had anticipated (-3% vs. consensus and +5% vs. us), supported by higher realised rhodium prices and the proceeds from purchased concentrate. However, the effect of costs pressure was more substantial, resulting in a rather weak EBITDA performance (-8% vs. consensus and -5% vs. us)
📈Overall, management sees a 9-16% YoY increase in cash costs per ounce in 2023, amid ongoing inflationary pressures
⛏This year, the company expects a deficit of 170kt (vs. the 570kt surplus in 2022) and 80kt (vs. the 480kt deficit) on the platinum and palladium markets, respectively. At the same time, rhodium is to remain in shortage (of 30kt)
📌On our numbers, at spot, Amplat's 1H23F EBITDA might face a low double-digit decline HoH, due to the recent correction in PGM prices
#AMS #PGMs
https://metals-wire.com/company/AMS_SJ/
📝The PGM miner's 2H22 revenues came in slightly more upbeat than we had anticipated (-3% vs. consensus and +5% vs. us), supported by higher realised rhodium prices and the proceeds from purchased concentrate. However, the effect of costs pressure was more substantial, resulting in a rather weak EBITDA performance (-8% vs. consensus and -5% vs. us)
📈Overall, management sees a 9-16% YoY increase in cash costs per ounce in 2023, amid ongoing inflationary pressures
⛏This year, the company expects a deficit of 170kt (vs. the 570kt surplus in 2022) and 80kt (vs. the 480kt deficit) on the platinum and palladium markets, respectively. At the same time, rhodium is to remain in shortage (of 30kt)
📌On our numbers, at spot, Amplat's 1H23F EBITDA might face a low double-digit decline HoH, due to the recent correction in PGM prices
#AMS #PGMs
https://metals-wire.com/company/AMS_SJ/
Morning Bites (part 1)
📈Global primary aluminium production rose 3% YoY in January, decelerating from the 6% YoY growth in December, the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) reports. Last month, Chinese aluminium output rose 6% YoY (+11% vs. the 2019 level), while ex-China production remained flat YoY (+2% vs. 2019)
🇨🇳China's Yunnan is to decrease its aluminium production further, Reuters reports. Over the weekend, the province was ordered to cut an additional 415kt of aluminium smelting capacity (0.6% of global supply), following the dry season. Meanwhile, according to Shanghai Metals Market (SMM), domestic power rationing might reduce Yunnan's Al output to 3.4mnt in February (vs. the ~4.0mnt level held since September 2022). Overall, the news is likely to have a slightly positive effect on the metal’s prices, especially amid low inventory levels
#aluminium
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Aluminium
📈Global primary aluminium production rose 3% YoY in January, decelerating from the 6% YoY growth in December, the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) reports. Last month, Chinese aluminium output rose 6% YoY (+11% vs. the 2019 level), while ex-China production remained flat YoY (+2% vs. 2019)
🇨🇳China's Yunnan is to decrease its aluminium production further, Reuters reports. Over the weekend, the province was ordered to cut an additional 415kt of aluminium smelting capacity (0.6% of global supply), following the dry season. Meanwhile, according to Shanghai Metals Market (SMM), domestic power rationing might reduce Yunnan's Al output to 3.4mnt in February (vs. the ~4.0mnt level held since September 2022). Overall, the news is likely to have a slightly positive effect on the metal’s prices, especially amid low inventory levels
#aluminium
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Aluminium
Morning Bites (part 2)
💎De Beers has again raised its small rough diamonds prices ~10%, Rapaport reports, citing buyers and insiders at the miner’s 2nd cycle. The increase applied to goods weighing around 0.03ct across different qualities. To recap, the company previously increased small diamonds prices by the same 10% at its January sight. In our view, the dynamics might reflect some lagged effect from the closure of Rio Tinto's big Argyle mine in late-2020 (there are no plans to reopen it) that produced mainly small-size stones. Overall, De Beers’ rough prices were still up ~3% YoY at its 2nd sales cycle in 2023, on our numbers
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💎De Beers has again raised its small rough diamonds prices ~10%, Rapaport reports, citing buyers and insiders at the miner’s 2nd cycle. The increase applied to goods weighing around 0.03ct across different qualities. To recap, the company previously increased small diamonds prices by the same 10% at its January sight. In our view, the dynamics might reflect some lagged effect from the closure of Rio Tinto's big Argyle mine in late-2020 (there are no plans to reopen it) that produced mainly small-size stones. Overall, De Beers’ rough prices were still up ~3% YoY at its 2nd sales cycle in 2023, on our numbers
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds