Beware

My thoughts on SBR and Bitcoin in general:

1. The SBR is neutral at best. Making the reserve thru EO is not gonna make it durable imo. If it had been passed through congress, it would have been giga bullish. If we get a new president in the future they can abolish it with another EO with a stroke of a pen. 2nd, they are not planning to add new coins which is not bullish for alts. 3rd, they have to find budget friendly ways to add new btc. I hear they may sell gold for this but I'll believe it when it happens, seems unlikely. 4th, seems alot of the coins in the reserve have to go back to rightful owners such as bitfinex so in total, the reserve is smaller than one expects.

There are things to be bullish about regarding the sbr but they're mostly speculative in nature and not based on facts. When they happen I'll believe it.

2. The spending cuts or threats to spending cuts is more of a reason why BTC will be weak. The core principle of BTC is that it opposes immense government spending by being a fixed supply and issuance, thus it goes up in price faster than they can print. Ironically when the administration begins to cut spending, the purpose of BTC is undermined and begins going down in price faster than they can cut. Few understand this.

3. Now that tradfi has ingrained btc into its system, it will go up and down with the market. Even Moreso now that one of the major catalysts, SBR, has already come to fruition. It becomes even easier to correlate it to stocks now as there is no real guidance at this point.

4. The bank run nature in crypto won't be resolved. People still doubt btc and probably will for eternity. At the end of the day they still see it as a scam and will dump it first before their other assets when shit hits the fan. As long as this persists there will always be volatility and huge corrections will still be possible. The only way they can fix this is if they issue substantial bitcoin backed bonds, but this will likely not happen anytime soon but I'm ready to be wrong.

The crypto summit was a complete waste of time

At least there was nothing bad said

Fringe thoughts on the market RN:

I know alot of people are hurting right now. Hang in there. Nothing ever goes up or down in a straight line for long. To all the bears, congrats.

I did give warning that we had begun a bear market a while ago and so far nothing has changed my mind. I'm still expecting an exit bounce and short squeeze, but like I said before, it is hard to tell where it will come from but I am almost sure it is coming and will probably take us back to >90k level. Looking at how bad alts are down, there is no doubt that the criminals in the space will send these higher just to get out.

I am seeing alot of contrarian accounts come out and say things are going exactly to plan and that we will go to new ATHs after this dump is over. IMO, this is only possible if the catalyst for pump is major major news that we are not expecting at all. Even SBR buying coins won't work anymore, it has to be an absolute surprise and white swan event IMO.

That being said, do I think this dump is over? I'm about >50% sure most of the big dumping is over but I am not sure whether the time to pump is here yet. Tradfi hasn't shown capitulation yet as well which will definitely factor into this. Right now, we are still not as bearish as the market back in January for tradfi, will check later to make sure.

My plan from this point is to look for crypto strength on a bloody red tradfi day. Is that day today? I don't really think so.

Strongly believe memes will make a come back

🔥 JUST IN : Breaking: #Gold Is Now Trading At $3,000 For First Time Ever.

@Fin_Watch

Realization phase

We are nearing the timing band for a weekly bottom.

Currently on week 11 downtrend. On average between 16 to 22 weeks downtrending before it puts in a momentum bottom but technically, any strong move up can indicate a local buyable bottom.

This is just an update on my trading system, not a call. I have stopped using the system personally because I feel it is a little bit laggy and I'm glad I did because the December warning I gave was mostly based on my gut feeling (https://news.1rj.ru/str/moonbagsnotes/4969)

For comparison, 2023 weekly downtrend lasted 25 weeks, in 2024, it lasted 23 weeks

🗽👀 Fidelity allows investors to directly invest in cryptocurrencies through a new retirement plan. coindesk

Gut feeling:

This dump reminds me of the night when Trump won the election in 2016

We revisit this

Ending poll here so you can't change your vote based on the 1 minute chart lmao

Inflation narrative is fully over

*TRUMP: IF CHINA DOES NOT WITHDRAW TARIFFS BY APRIL 8, US WILL IMPOSE ADDITIONAL 50% TARIFFS APRIL 9

Donald Trump stated on his social media that the United States will immediately raise tariffs on China to 125%, while granting a 90-day suspension period for over 75 countries, during which a reduced reciprocal tariff of 10% will apply. — link