Market has played along well with this thesis

Market kind of showing it's hand now

It's exceedingly likely now we are gonna go into a chopping bleed until Q4 (December)

The good news is, the weekly downtrend is about half way over on average

This thesis is likely invalidated if we reclaim 120k and hold

Nice try CZ, but thesis remains intact

Entire bear market in less than a few hours. Congrats.

Crypto is a test of resilience, in both mind and soul

The market will discard what it deems worthless and reward the faithful of the chosen

ONE OF THE LARGEST LIQUIDATION EVENT

$10 BILLION LIQUIDATED IN CRYPTO POSTIONS

There are months where nothing happens and there are seconds where months happen

Today is one of those days where the latter is the case

All the anxieties and fears that were festering in the background expressed into reality in one massive implosion

We have seen this shit before, and it will happen again.

It is a cautionary tale that extreme risk taking should only be done in small sizes because these events can happen at any time no matter how well it is planned for

Hope that you are safe, probably best off avoiding the market now for a little while as things digest the events of this day

Disregarding alts, this is what the past few weeks have felt like to me for BTC

Reminded me so much of the June 2023 candle except the final resolution of it was immediate rather than delayed like back in 2023

My preliminary thesis going forward is chop around the wick low area for over a month at least

For those still following, the recent uptrend was wiped out and price pretty much fell back in line with expectations with a weekly decline, ie I told you so (jk)

However, we're getting close to a bullish daily reversal

A few green days will probably print it

Weekly still in major declining phase but a daily reversal should give a bounce for a few weeks if it plays out

Still on track for weekly reversal to happen some time in December

Playing out rn, day 4

Both the weekly and daily trends have confirmed. This means they are capable of making a reversal at any time.

The daily uptrend which has played out mostly as a chop has on average 4 days left on it before it flips bearish but wouldn't be shocked if it flips sooner.

The weekly downtrend has on average 2-3 more weeks left before a bullish reversal.

This pretty much lines up with my August 2023 fractal and although I think of it mostly as a meme, it could be a guideline of what is to come.

We are entering giga hard mode for a bit, best take cover, even accumulation will be difficult in case we get a breakdown.

I have said publicly in the past, the absolute best case scenario is we go back down to retest 89 to 90k as that would open up blue skies for prices to rise in the foreseeable future. But seeing as how they have had trouble bringing this below 100k even with the biggest liquidations in history, not really betting on it anymore.

Next bottom will be similar to April 2025/September 2024/October 2023 bottom

Week 14 Weekly Downtrend

Day 10 Daily Downtrend

Both in reversible areas

Average usually 15.5 weeks/16 days, seems plausible both may reverse in the same time window

Bitcoin is now red 11 months into the year

Astrological prophecy is now fulfilled