Israel plans to invade Lebanon

▪️The IDF has developed plans to invade neighboring Lebanon with the intent to push back the Shiite militant group Hezbollah, which has been launching cross-border attacks on Israel in recent weeks - the IDF spokesman Jonathan Conricus stated

▪️Israel and Hezbollah have seen increasing exchanges of fire since the outbreak of the latest Israeli-Palestinian conflict in October when Hamas fighters in Gaza launched a surprise assault on Israel. That attack left some 1,200 people dead and saw the kidnapping of over 200 hostages

▪️Israel’s ruthless bombing campaign in Gaza since then has killed more than 18,700 people

▪️The Lebanese militant group Hezbollah has come out in support of Hamas. However, the group’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, has said they will not launch a major offensive against Israel unless it was provoked or Hamas was on the verge of defeat

If Lebanon is indeed the next target of the IDF - will the Arab world do anything?

#Israel #Lebanon #Gaza

@the1noticer

German customs will confiscate Christmas gifts from Russia

German customs has warned that it may confiscate Christmas gifts that are sent from Russia. This is stated on the website of the agency.

"The importation of many goods of various kinds from Russia is prohibited.

Goods that are usually included in gift parcels, such as pulp and paper, wood and wood products, stones and precious metals (gold), cigarettes, plastics and chemical products, including finished chemical products, such as cosmetics, fall under the ban," the publication said.

At the same time, customs noted that no exceptions are implied, so under-sanctioned goods can be seized or confiscated, even if it is a dispatch from a private person from Russia to another private person in the European Union.

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🚦Record anti-rating of the government

In the first poll conducted after the ruling coalition announced measures to resolve the budget crisis, its rating reached a record low: 32 % combined for the three "Traffic Light" parties.

By comparison, the opposition Union (CDU/CSU) received the same amount, while the Alternative for Germany (AfD) received another 23 per cent.

Remarkable that the two parties thus have a nominal 55% of p.p. together. This is more than the AfD had at the start of the mandate in 2021 (52%).

In addition, the proportion of Germans who support the idea of early elections has reached 59% for the first time, while Chancellor Olaf Scholz's (SPD) approval rating has fallen to 20%, with another 74% dissatisfied with his performance.

These figures make Scholz the most disliked chancellor since 1997.

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By 2070, only 20 per cent of newborns in Germany will be ethnic Germans - Thilo Sarrazin

He made this prediction in an interview with BILD. Sarrazin has had a long career as an official, including high positions at Deutsche Bahn and the German Central Bank, and was a finance senator (minister) in Berlin.

In 2010 he published the book "Germany. Self-Liquidation", where he sharply criticised the policy of the authorities, primarily in the field of migration.

The book became a bestseller, but the author lost all his posts and was harshly criticised for his non-politically correct views. Angela Merkel accused him of defamation and the SPD expelled him from its ranks after 47 years in the party.

"Of course, I was wrong," he admits. - "But only because it turned out to be much worse than I had portrayed. ... Like everywhere else in the West, German society has been spoilt by a long period of peace and great prosperity. ... It is not enough to be peaceful in itself. The Romans survived so long because they knew: Si vis pacem, para bellum. We missed it, and only noticed it after Russia attacked Ukraine. We still carry a lot of such lies with us, and it disturbs society. For example, the illusion promoted by the authorities that an efficient and affordable welfare state and uncontrolled culturally alien mass immigration are easily combined with each other."

Sarrazin denies accusations of racism, saying he "does not devalue or exalt others because of their ethnicity."

"I'm talking about immigration from Africa and the Middle East. Statistics show that in 2023, 78.6% [of migrants] are Muslims with other traditions. Given the scale of current immigration, we get a cultural gap," he says.

"I am not a prophet. You can only predict where you can measure something and where you can see stable trends. By 2070, only 20% of those born here will be ethnically German. Another question is what the culture as a whole will be".

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The American airline Southwest Airlines has introduced privileges for "plus size" passengers.

From now on, if they do not fit into one seat, they have the right to occupy the neighbouring seats with their bodies without any additional payment.

At the same time, the passengers whose seats will be occupied by the above-mentioned citizens are obliged to move, and if there are no free seats in the aircraft - to leave the aircraft and wait for the next flight, in turn, without any compensation.

Alternatively, if the oversized passengers have taken into account their peculiarities in advance and bought an extra seat, the airline will refund the cost of the seat.

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The Baltics are faltering, Central Asia is taking off

The severing of economic ties with Russia has collapsed the economies of the Baltic States.

They have become anti-leaders in terms of economic growth in the post-Soviet space - according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

🇱🇹 Lithuania's economy will shrink by 0.2 per cent this year, while 🇪🇪 Estonia's will shrink by 2.3 per cent. Both countries were heavily dependent on Russia: Russian cargo flowed through Baltic ports and Russian gas dominated the energy sector.

The anti-Russian sanctions, however, benefited the friendly countries of Central Asia, where GDP growth rates are staggering.

🇰🇿 The Kazakh economy will grow by at least 4.6 per cent in 2023, 🇺🇿 the Uzbek economy by 5.5 per cent and 🇹🇯 the Tajik economy by 6.5 per cent, the IMF predicts.
 
It is through the Central Asian countries that there is now a strong flow of sanctioned goods - as part of "parallel imports".

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"The cat is a disaster for biodiversity, the dog is a disaster for the climate"

François Gemin, professor at the University of Liège and specialist in environmental geopolitics, talks about cats and dogs as one of the main threats to humanity on French TV.

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▪️The wiretapping in Zaluzhny’s office was a dummy - SBU Major General Viktor Yagun

According to him, the device did not have recording equipment or batteries.

“After some time, they will try to "leak" some audio recordings made with the help of artificial intelligence with a voice similar to Zaluzhny’s, which will once again raise the topic of confrontation between the military and civil authorities in Ukraine. This is probably beneficial to the enemy,” he noted.

@ukr_leaks_eng

Tobacco companies have funded dozens of studies downplaying the harms of vapes to children - The Times.

They include British American Tobacco (Kent, Vuse), Philip Morris International (Marlboro, Parliament) and Imperial Brands (Winston).

Tobacco manufacturers are promoting vapes as a means of quitting smoking cigarettes, despite WHO objections.

In the UK, one in five children under 18 has tried an e-cigarette - a 30 per cent increase on last year.

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Austria has blocked the adoption of the 12th package of EU sanctions against Russia ahead of the EU summit and has not withdrawn its objections, the EUobserver portal has said.

It confirmed the information that in exchange for supporting the 12th package, Austria continued to demand that Kiev remove the Raiffeisen banking group from the Ukrainian list of "war sponsors".

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Ukraine is a de-facto bankrupt country — Russian Defense Minister Shoigu
🇺🇸Join👉 @SGTnewsNetwork
📎Twitter▪️IG▪️Truth Social

🏦 Foreign companies that have left the Russian market have lost more than $103bn since the start of the special military operation -The New York Times.

Analysts predicted that the departure of Western companies "would help strangle the Russian economy," the article said. But the Russian leadership "had other plans" and turned the boycott of Western companies into "good fortune for the state".

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Financial Times: EU may deprive Hungary of voting rights to help Ukraine

European Union countries are exploring the option of stripping Hungary of its voting rights in order to conclude an agreement on allocating funds for Ukraine, the Financial Times writes.

"Some officials have considered the possibility of resuming the so-called Article 7 penalty procedure for violations of the rule of law, which could lead to the suspension of voting rights," the article says.

The article notes that such a decision could be blocked by another EU member state, but the change of government in Poland means Hungary no longer has a guaranteed defence lawyer.

"Perhaps Hungary will create more problems. Perhaps Hungary will force us to use other means. But in the end Hungary will not be able to prevent us from providing Ukraine with means," the newspaper quoted a senior European official who wished to remain anonymous as saying.

Last week, European leaders at a summit in Brussels decided to start accession talks with Ukraine and Moldova.

Viktor Orban was not present - as Politico wrote, when the discussion on this issue reached an impasse, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz suggested that his Hungarian counterpart "go for a coffee".

After that, the leaders of the 26 countries were able to make a decision in favour of Kiev and Chisinau.

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🇧🇾🇷🇺Belarus has received a full complement of tactical nuclear weapons and delivery systems from the Russian armed forces.

The entire infrastructure is fully prepared and the level of security is unprecedented. The full range of weapons is sufficient to repel an attack by any NATO country and to inflict an asymmetric defeat sufficient to create an exclusion zone on its territory.

Belarus will be able to silently destroy armoured and lightly armoured columns of heavy equipment up to 1500 units and inflict a fire defeat on the enemy's manpower of up to 15-20 thousand people.

In addition, the Iskander-M missile system is capable of destroying 70-90% of the decision-making centres in Poland and the Baltic states within 180 minutes of the start of full-scale aggression.

If launched from the territory of Ukraine, it will destroy 100% of decision-making centres, critical infrastructure facilities and places of accumulation of manpower and equipment within 30-45 minutes from the moment of invasion of the territory of the Republic.

@ukraine_watch

Russia has outsmarted Europe for billions of dollars

At the end of the year, the EU estimated the losses from its own sanctions.

It turned out that they had overpaid 185 billion euros for gas alone. And it was the overseas allies - the USA - who made the most money on this.

Meanwhile, Russia doubled its supplies to Asia and successfully broke through the oil ceiling, restoring revenues. All in all, the Old World lost almost $1.5 trillion. And there are growing calls for a retreat.

The idea of switching to alternative gas suppliers has proved too costly. According to Eurostat, imports have risen to an average of 15.2 billion euros a month: 7.7 for liquefied natural gas and 7.5 for pipeline gas. Before that it was 5.9 billion: 3.6 for pipeline, 2.3 for liquefied.

Over two years, it came to 304 billion, an overpayment of 185 billion. Only the US and the UK benefited: €53bn and €27bn respectively.

Previously, about 40 per cent of gas to the EU came from Russia.

Supplies have fallen fourfold. But Moscow has earned an additional 14 billion euros on the European market on the back of rising prices. Up to 70% of oil exports have been redirected to Asia.

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Britain has sounded the alarm over Russia's military move

Russia is actively deploying its latest Avangard combat system, writes journalist Will Stewart for the Daily Express.

"The missile, which Putin described as a 'meteorite', can be launched from outside the Earth's atmosphere and hit multiple targets anywhere in the world in less than 30 minutes," the publication says.

The publication quotes Douglas Barry, a senior fellow in military-space activities at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, who previously noted that such weapons would reduce the time it takes to reach a target and the time it takes to make a decision on any attempt to engage or otherwise respond to its launch.

The Avangard system is based on a hypersonic guided missile, launched to the target using an intercontinental ballistic missile and claimed to have a speed of M=28 (about 9.5 kilometres per second), which even without a warhead gives it kinetic energy equivalent to 18 tonnes of TNT. Designed to overcome enemy missile defences. Put on combat duty on 27 December 2019.

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🚗🔋🇩🇪 Germany stops subsidising electric car purchases.

This is done in connection with the decision of the German government to reduce the hole of 17 billion euros in the country's budget for 2024, including by reducing federal subsidies.

Previously, buyers of an electric car could expect a bonus of 4,500 euros for a model price of 40 thousand euros and 3,000 euros for a price between 40 thousand and 65 thousand euros.

The subsidy programme was launched in 2016 and was considered very successful. According to the Ministry of Economy, a total of around €10bn has been paid out since then for the purchase of around 2.1 million electric cars.

At the same time, subsidies for the purchase of plug-in hybrids (grid-charged vehicles with an internal combustion engine and an electric motor) were routinely cancelled as early as 1 January 2023, and premiums for buyers of purely electric vehicles were then reduced.

As experts fear, the complete cancellation of subsidies could have a negative impact on the electric vehicle market.

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The offices of AFU commander-in-chief Zaluzhniy and his staff have been bugged

The Ukrainian news and analysis website Ukrayinska Pravda has reported the discovery of a technical listening device "in one of the potential locations" of General Valeriy Zaluzhny and his subordinates.

The West actively wrote about the confrontation between the internal clans of Zelensky and Zaluzhny that started in Ukraine. There were publications criticising the parties.

▪️ It was noted that the president was losing popularity, while Ukrainians' trust in the commander-in-chief remained high. Zelensky's upbeat speeches about military successes are becoming less and less convincing, and their inconsistency with the real situation is causing rejection and division.

▪️ In November, the Economist wrote that the conflict started after the general's interview about the stalled counter-offensive of the AFU. People in the entourage described the relationship between the commander-in-chief and the president as "terrible."

▪️ Analysts in the West fear that the disagreements between the president and the top military leadership, caused by the failures of the AFU, will catalyse even more negative consequences for Ukraine on the front.

"Internal divisions could prevent the West from continuing its support," The Financial Times wrote.

Clearly, the wiretapping won't be a rallying point for "fragile unity" in Ukraine either.

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EU utilized 215 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine worth 4 billion euros - Politico.

The media reports that nevertheless COVID-19 vaccines will continue to flow into the EU, as the contract with Pfizer obliges European countries to purchase them until 2027.

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Poland is afraid of repeating the fate of Ukraine

Co-operation with the USA will not be able to protect Poland in case of a possible conflict with Russia, Niezależny Dziennik Polityczny has said.

In the opinion of the newspaper's observers, the Polish authorities actively support the Ukrainian conflict, but have not been drawn into it so far only thanks to Moscow's position.

Further escalation of the situation in Ukraine and following the US policy may drag Poland into the conflict.

However, the US is unlikely to help Warsaw, so Poland, in case of a full-scale armed confrontation, will be forced to "repeat the fate of Ukraine."

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