🇱🇧🇮🇱⚡️- "Hezbollah may launch an attack within a day, and we are facing 24 hours of intense tension." -Yedioth Ahronoth, centrist outlet, citing an Israeli security source

🇱🇧🇮🇱⚡️- Another wave of Israeli airstrikes has begun against Lebanon

🇱🇧🇮🇱 - Some commentary on the increasing tensions between Hezbollah and Israel:

It's very obvious that Israel is vigorously working to coax Hezbollah into a massive retaliation in order to acquire a justification to launch a full-scale war against Lebanon. Of course, this is not in Hezbollah's interest.

Hezbollah has stated - since October 8th - that its entire objective is to thwart the ambitions of Israel and to support Hamas in Gaza. If Hezbollah were to launch a massive retaliation, they would be serving Israel exactly what they want on a silver platter, and it would allow Israel to invade Lebanon and turn Lebanon into the next Gaza.

At the same time, however, Hezbollah has proven itself for the last 40 years to be the single greatest threat to Israel, besides Iran, as Iran does not share any land border or proximity to Israel. The only way that Hezbollah has maintained this image is by displaying its power and deterrence through occasional spikes in attacks, which Hezbollah has not fully committed to showing off since Israel has "moved the front" to the north.

Hezbollah did not have to enter the conflict between Hamas and Israel on October 8th. However, they did, when they really did not have to. It was a very bold but risky move to make, and this move required immense calculus on behalf of Hezbollah's senior leadership in anticipating the worst case scenario, which has arrived. In retrospect, the ruling Likud regime in Israel more than likely wanted and expected Hezbollah to enter the conflict in some way, as this would justify wiping out all of Israel's closest threats, and ultimately finishing off the entire cycle by coaxing the United States into war with Iran, the one country Israel has no chance of defeating on its own.

To summarize, Hezbollah is stuck. If they retaliate too strongly for the recent actions of Israel, they risk the entirety of Lebanon being decimated in the same way that Gaza was. If they don't retaliate at all, which is ostensibly what they have been doing for the last few weeks, then they risk being disregarded as a legitimate threat to Israel, they lose all of their deterrence against Israel, and are ultimately destroyed. In short- they're damned if they do, damned if they don't.

Hezbollah hasn't miscalculated their actions, it would seem, but they are stuck in an impossible balance of maintaining their security deterrence and strength while also preventing all-out war in Lebanon. Hezbollah is part of the Lebanese political establishment, and so they have accountability to the Lebanese public and political system. It will be very difficult for Hezbollah to maintain any kind of prominence in Lebanon if they are disarmed - whether forcibly by Israel or forcibly by the public - and they will be destroyed in the end.

This explains why Hezbollah has done next to nothing in response to the grotesque pager terrorist attacks, followed by the unprecedented airstrikes and decapitation strikes against Hezbollah military leadership. At once, they must retaliate to show their strength, but they also must prevent all-out war in some way shape or form.

The only two factors that could break this position that Hezbollah finds itself in are the United States and Iran. If the United States makes it clear they will not support any Israeli incursions into Lebanon, Hezbollah has a lot more wiggle room. However, this is unlikely. If Iran steps in and declares guarantees for Hezbollah and promises to intervene if Israel invades, Israel itself may have to recalculate and that would, in due time, give Hezbollah the room they need to strike back.

As we previously wrote, the inaction by the Axis of Resistance has resulted in this situation. Israel definitely fears Hezbollah and Iran, they have made that very clear. However, they also feel free to push around the Axis of Resistance with no consequences, as they have not been attacked properly for their incredibly destabilizing actions.

🇱🇧🇮🇱 - Admin does believe that Hezbollah will - eventually - retaliate. Iran probably will as well. But, at this point, it will require near pin-point precise calculations and decision making on behalf of Hezbollah and Iran in order to avoid an all-out war.

On a purely tactical and strategic basis, Hezbollah has an immense edge against Israel, especially if Israel decided to invade Lebanon. It would be a bloody and brutal war, for both sides, but Hezbollah would likely come out on top in a painful but nonetheless pyrrhic victory. This is only if Hezbollah decides to take decisive and bold action, which they have yet to do.

🇱🇧🇮🇱⚡️- Two airstrikes against the town of Dhahira, southern Lebanon

🇫🇷🇱🇧⚡️- France has reportedly warned the Lebanese government on the impending dangers of an Israeli war in Lebanon: "If a war starts, it will not be a third Lebanon war, it will be the last Lebanon war"

🇯🇴🇱🇧⚡️- Jordan has asked its citizens to immediately leave Lebanon

🇱🇧🇮🇱⚡️- Israel has extended the closure of the airspace north of Hadera until Tuesday, September 23rd

🇵🇸🇮🇱⚡️- Massive demonstrations in Jerusalem demanding a hostage exchange deal. Police are making numerous arrests and attempting to disperse the protests

🇱🇧🇮🇱⚡- "Hezbollah is waving red flags as a symbol of revenge in southern Da'iyah and several other cities in the south," -Channel 12.

🇱🇧🇮🇱⚡️- "The beeper attack is a prelude to a large-scale attack in Lebanon, its purpose was to cause great chaos in Hezbollah." -The Washington Post

🇱🇧🇮🇱⚡️- Rambam Hospital in Haifa, the fifth largest hospital in Israel and the largest hospital in northern Israel, has partially cancelled multiple services due to the security situation

🇱🇧🇮🇱⚡️- Prime Minister Netanyahu has cancelled his schedule visit to New York for the UN General Assembly meeting amid the ongoing security situation.

🇷🇺🇺🇦⚡- Russian forces have entered Makarovka – Velikaya Novosyolka direction.

Russian troops have advanced 1,900 meters north of Staromaiorskoe, entering the first few houses of Makarovka. UAV footage shows Russian troops at 47.77044, 36.80116.

Russian forces have also advanced north of Urozhainoe by 500 meters.

🇱🇧🇮🇱⚡️- Initial reports of explosions in Haifa.

🇱🇧🇮🇱⚡️- Hebrew channels reporting the cause of the explosion is fighter jets breaking the sound barrier above the city

🇷🇺🇺🇦⚡- Massive Russian advance in the Toretsk direction.

Ukrainian UAV footage shows Russian BMPs driving through Leonidovka, at 48.37325, 37.79595. Therefore Russian troops advanced 4,800 meters north.

Russian forces have secured New York and have captured Nelipovka as well as Leonidovka.

At the moment it's unknown whether Russian troops have crossed the Kazenniy Torets river into the large town of Shcherbinovka.

It's also unknown whether Ukrainian forces have remained in the pockets south of Toretsk city, where they are at risk of encirclement. It's likely Ukraine has withdrawn from this position.

🇺🇸🇱🇧🇮🇱⚡️- The Pentagon has declared a state of alert in the Middle East for all overseas bases due to rising tensions between Israel and Hezbollah

🇱🇧🇮🇱⚡️- Massive red alerts across northern Israel and central Galilee. Red alerts are reported near Haifa.

🇱🇧🇮🇱⚡️- Sirens sounding Haifa and Nazareth, the furthest south of any attack Hezbollah has started since October 8th.

🇱🇧🇮🇱⚡️- All of central Galilee is under red alert