a lot of people on the way up speculated, that a lot of BTC spot ETF inflows is just to do the basis trade (which is very normal for more trad/insti market participants)

TLDR: its unwinding and pretty fast
BTC CME OI back at pre-election levels

to follow-up on the post above

-2.4b in ETF outflows in last 3 days
CME BTC OI -5k BTC yesterday

I do have a feeling that Institutional Basis trade in crypto is very close to unwinding (85%-ish done)

Today (Thursday) I think will be boring and tomorrow

USA: PCE should bring a lot of volatility, also it is now Trump tradition to bring out big gun Tarriffs headlines each Friday...

as per Directional Bias - I dont know

But some tips I can give
- dont get directionally excited outside of US sessions (its very obvious Macro/TradFi is dictating the direction/pace right now)

just few hrs ago markets were recovering, USA opened just 30 minutes ago + Trump mentions Tariffs again, back to selling off

if you are CET like me, its 3:30 pm to 10 pm

I do expect ETF outflows to continue at least till next monday (as monday will reflect this Fridays flows as there is 1 day delay)

March 2nd update:

TLDR: Short term great news, pending Friday details.

Trump mentions strategic reserves for BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL & ADA (+potentially others?) on Truth Social (his version of Twitter)
with "More to come at the Summit."

Summit being "White House first ever Crypto Summit on March 7th (Friday)

Good news/hopium paired with the fact its sunday and books are pretty illiquid, price rallied a bunch.

I do expect optimism and ETF inflows to come in hot all week before Fridays Crypto Summit.

BTC CME Basis Trade has already unwound and TradFi has had a meaningful correction too.

Currently trying to figure out now how "quickly" could USA actually start buying these assets and create some scenarios for Friday, I do think crypto natives will be unhappy in almost every scenario as the "consensus" seems to be that this process takes a while

extra note: Tariffs go into "effect" this coming Tuesday (March 4th)

what has made me a bunch of money and or gave me speed advantage over others are these two Telegram news-feeds (both are free to join)

https://news.1rj.ru/str/BWEnews
https://news.1rj.ru/str/PhoenixNewsImportant

*TRUMP: 25% TARIFFS ON CANADA, MEXICO TOMORROW

*LUTNICK: TARIFFS COMPROMISE ANNOUNCEMENT LIKELY TOMORROW

(24 hrs later)

Bitcoin correlation to TradFi is ever so present.

If you bet on BTC bottom, then you are betting on tradfi bottom

I stay away from betting on TradFi bottoms before TradFi opens, CME opened super red (as per usual as of late)

guaranteed volatility days in coming days/weeks:

March 12th : USA CPI
March 18th FOMC
March 21st Opex

Thank you Donald Trump

I am getting real tired of Winning

Trump did an interesting interview yesterday on Fox News,

I highly, highly encourage you to re-watch it or read trannoscript

Snippet:
When questioned whether he was expecting a recession in 2025, Trump responded: “I hate to predict things like that. There is a period of transition because what we’re doing is very big. We're bringing wealth back to America. That's a big thing.” He then added, “It takes a little time. It takes a little time."

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-downplays-business-concerns-uncertainty-155403386.html

I will start uploading stuff again when this clownshow ends

https://x.com/deitaone/status/1900156653153964370?s=46&t=17ly50Vlll8LmKuyomFMTg

You are one stupid headline from Trump to being invalidated on a trade

And there is not a shortage of them, getting a bit tiresome

Please stop trying to invite me as a speaker for conferences, podcasts, or interviews as the answer will be no.

Majority of the time they are only beneficial if you have something new to promote or can get exposure to a different audience.

You should always be skeptical of the projects who spend more time attending conferences or making podcast appearances rather than actually building their products