March 2nd update:

TLDR: Short term great news, pending Friday details.

Trump mentions strategic reserves for BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL & ADA (+potentially others?) on Truth Social (his version of Twitter)
with "More to come at the Summit."

Summit being "White House first ever Crypto Summit on March 7th (Friday)

Good news/hopium paired with the fact its sunday and books are pretty illiquid, price rallied a bunch.

I do expect optimism and ETF inflows to come in hot all week before Fridays Crypto Summit.

BTC CME Basis Trade has already unwound and TradFi has had a meaningful correction too.

Currently trying to figure out now how "quickly" could USA actually start buying these assets and create some scenarios for Friday, I do think crypto natives will be unhappy in almost every scenario as the "consensus" seems to be that this process takes a while

extra note: Tariffs go into "effect" this coming Tuesday (March 4th)

what has made me a bunch of money and or gave me speed advantage over others are these two Telegram news-feeds (both are free to join)

https://news.1rj.ru/str/BWEnews
https://news.1rj.ru/str/PhoenixNewsImportant

*TRUMP: 25% TARIFFS ON CANADA, MEXICO TOMORROW

*LUTNICK: TARIFFS COMPROMISE ANNOUNCEMENT LIKELY TOMORROW

(24 hrs later)

Bitcoin correlation to TradFi is ever so present.

If you bet on BTC bottom, then you are betting on tradfi bottom

I stay away from betting on TradFi bottoms before TradFi opens, CME opened super red (as per usual as of late)

guaranteed volatility days in coming days/weeks:

March 12th : USA CPI
March 18th FOMC
March 21st Opex

Thank you Donald Trump

I am getting real tired of Winning

Trump did an interesting interview yesterday on Fox News,

I highly, highly encourage you to re-watch it or read trannoscript

Snippet:
When questioned whether he was expecting a recession in 2025, Trump responded: “I hate to predict things like that. There is a period of transition because what we’re doing is very big. We're bringing wealth back to America. That's a big thing.” He then added, “It takes a little time. It takes a little time."

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-downplays-business-concerns-uncertainty-155403386.html

I will start uploading stuff again when this clownshow ends

https://x.com/deitaone/status/1900156653153964370?s=46&t=17ly50Vlll8LmKuyomFMTg

You are one stupid headline from Trump to being invalidated on a trade

And there is not a shortage of them, getting a bit tiresome

Please stop trying to invite me as a speaker for conferences, podcasts, or interviews as the answer will be no.

Majority of the time they are only beneficial if you have something new to promote or can get exposure to a different audience.

You should always be skeptical of the projects who spend more time attending conferences or making podcast appearances rather than actually building their products

Trade wars start on April 2nd.

As with all decisions as such, we will see its effects sometime in May/June (data delay/lag)

In my opinion main key will be to see how it affects Growth.

I apologize for the lack of posting and making this a "macro talk" but BTC is strongly correlated to SP500/Nasdaq as you can see in the chart attached

Sadly May/June is from seasonality perspective a very slow/boring period so as of right now I lean towards very boring next few months ahead of us.

Gold (asset that acts as uncertainty proxy) is making new ATHs each week

Cash preservation is my motto going forward for now, I am no hero holding Triple Leveraged Nasdaq (bitcoin, or worse - altcoins) into what seems like a recession

S&P 500 OPENS 3.3% LOWER, NASDAQ SINKS 4.5%

Playing defence has paid off big time (i have not made any money nor have I really lose any money and I consider that a big win)

TRUMP'S TARIFFS TRIGGER SELLOFF

*S&P 500 DOWN 4.5%
*NASDAQ DOWN 5.5%
*RUSSELL 2000 DOWN 6.5%

*GOLD DOWN 0.5%
*BTC DOWN 6.5%

*APPLE DOWN 9%
*NVIDIA DOWN 7.5%
*META DOWN 7.5%
*TESLA DOWN 7.5%
*AMAZON DOWN 9%
*COINBASE DOWN 10%
*MICROSTRATEGY DOWN 9%

*VIX > 29
*USOIL DOWN 6%
*DXY DROPS BELOW 101.5
*USDJPY DROPS BELOW 145.5

*US02Y DROPS BELOW 3.7%

*RUSSELL 2000 ON TRACK TO ENTER BEAR MARKET
*DOLLAR HAS NOW SEEN WORST START TO A YEAR IN 30 YEARS

*TRADERS SEE 50% CHANCE OF 4TH CUT THIS YEAR
*TRADERS FULLY PRICE IN FED RATE CUT IN JUNE, PREVIOUSLY JULY
*US 10-YEAR YIELD FALLS BELOW 4% FOR FIRST TIME SINCE OCTOBER