FOMC yesterday delivered big.
Jerome Powell speech spooked the market and resulted in 4% correction in SP500. VIX (Volatility index) went up almost 100% in the same timeframe.
Crypto isnt immune and dumped with it, while BTC poked below 100k for a brief moment, I closed our short position on BTC.
I do believe this was a (local) bottom for at least few days (i know not very generous of me)
My reasoning is simple
- VIX going parabolic always results in a nuke in markets which is almost always a great buy. Last time it happened was big liquidation cascade on August 5th (Surprise Bank of Japan Hike/Cut)
- TradFi is already recovering pre-market
I highly encourage you to do this homework, look at all peaks on VIX (daily/weekly chart) and overlay it with BTC price action
Our positioning
- 100% BTC spot long (looking to start hedging again as I believe week of December 23rd should be slow due to holidays/EoY
- Long SOL (around 20% of desired position size so far)
almost 800 mil usd liquidations in last 24hrs, hopefully nobody here got hit
Jerome Powell speech spooked the market and resulted in 4% correction in SP500. VIX (Volatility index) went up almost 100% in the same timeframe.
Crypto isnt immune and dumped with it, while BTC poked below 100k for a brief moment, I closed our short position on BTC.
I do believe this was a (local) bottom for at least few days (i know not very generous of me)
My reasoning is simple
- VIX going parabolic always results in a nuke in markets which is almost always a great buy. Last time it happened was big liquidation cascade on August 5th (Surprise Bank of Japan Hike/Cut)
- TradFi is already recovering pre-market
I highly encourage you to do this homework, look at all peaks on VIX (daily/weekly chart) and overlay it with BTC price action
Our positioning
- 100% BTC spot long (looking to start hedging again as I believe week of December 23rd should be slow due to holidays/EoY
- Long SOL (around 20% of desired position size so far)
almost 800 mil usd liquidations in last 24hrs, hopefully nobody here got hit
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Todays move has been Binance spot and Binance Perps led, Coinbase followed afterwards. There was also no Coinbase Premium
What I am trying to say is that I dont think it was Saylor or ETFs buying today (due to Holidays/shorter Work Day in TradFi) but Binance Degens
Which has not happened in a long time. Finally.
Wishing everybody a Merry X-mas & Happy New Year
What I am trying to say is that I dont think it was Saylor or ETFs buying today (due to Holidays/shorter Work Day in TradFi) but Binance Degens
Which has not happened in a long time. Finally.
Wishing everybody a Merry X-mas & Happy New Year
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January 17th 2025 Update:
Today is Friday (last working day) before Donald Trump Inauguration on Monday. Monday is a holiday and markets are closed (we have 3 day weekend)
Since US open (2hrs 15 min ago) there was insane spike in buying on all fronts (see chart) with meaningful Coinbase premium
I suspect Michael Saylor and ETFs (boomers in general) and also retail market participants (me and you both) are FOMOing extremely hard due to SBR (Strategic Bitcoin Reserve) narrative
and the last day when one could traditionally FOMO, with good liquidity is... well Today
This extreme sentiment optimism and flip-flopping (as people were calling for end of the world just last week due to Macro conditions) is very normal in times of volatility.
Second image shows orderflow data, Open Interest (effectively amount of leverage in the system) is going parabolic today and this often leads to both sides of the market getting punished.
I do expect volatility to calm down as US session ends and then I will try to get as much rest as possible for Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday as I will be glued to my PC 24/7.
It is obvious to me that market is expecting BSR news to drop on Monday or Tuesday the latest. anticipation is very high. Makes me wonder if its another BTC Nashville moment (July 27th 2024)
as we are 100% spot BTC, I have to consider multiple scenarios
1) SBR gets announced day 1 (Monday) or Tuesday the latest -> enjoy pump to a lot fucking higher
2) SBR doesnt get announced instantly, overleveraged market starts panicking, woala a recipe for disaster -> i will hedge some of our BTC spot via BTC futs short
Nobody knows when and how SBR announcement looks like, but TLDR its obvious that our entire price action in the coming days and weeks revolves around this ONE event alone
I am personally not sure this is time to be a hero.
Good luck to all of us. Update on Monday/Tuesday.
Today is Friday (last working day) before Donald Trump Inauguration on Monday. Monday is a holiday and markets are closed (we have 3 day weekend)
Since US open (2hrs 15 min ago) there was insane spike in buying on all fronts (see chart) with meaningful Coinbase premium
I suspect Michael Saylor and ETFs (boomers in general) and also retail market participants (me and you both) are FOMOing extremely hard due to SBR (Strategic Bitcoin Reserve) narrative
and the last day when one could traditionally FOMO, with good liquidity is... well Today
This extreme sentiment optimism and flip-flopping (as people were calling for end of the world just last week due to Macro conditions) is very normal in times of volatility.
Second image shows orderflow data, Open Interest (effectively amount of leverage in the system) is going parabolic today and this often leads to both sides of the market getting punished.
I do expect volatility to calm down as US session ends and then I will try to get as much rest as possible for Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday as I will be glued to my PC 24/7.
It is obvious to me that market is expecting BSR news to drop on Monday or Tuesday the latest. anticipation is very high. Makes me wonder if its another BTC Nashville moment (July 27th 2024)
as we are 100% spot BTC, I have to consider multiple scenarios
1) SBR gets announced day 1 (Monday) or Tuesday the latest -> enjoy pump to a lot fucking higher
2) SBR doesnt get announced instantly, overleveraged market starts panicking, woala a recipe for disaster -> i will hedge some of our BTC spot via BTC futs short
Nobody knows when and how SBR announcement looks like, but TLDR its obvious that our entire price action in the coming days and weeks revolves around this ONE event alone
I am personally not sure this is time to be a hero.
Good luck to all of us. Update on Monday/Tuesday.
BTC nashville example
it was (felt) exactly the same, community expected insane speech from (now) President Trump, yet it was underwhelming due to the fact that market pumped super hard leading into it.
I am not saying that I expect it necessarily to be classic sell-the-news event
but if (very eager) community doesnt get exactly what they want, i expect lots of longs covering
it was (felt) exactly the same, community expected insane speech from (now) President Trump, yet it was underwhelming due to the fact that market pumped super hard leading into it.
I am not saying that I expect it necessarily to be classic sell-the-news event
but if (very eager) community doesnt get exactly what they want, i expect lots of longs covering
if anybody is in the same boat like me (100% BTC spot long)
I am not looking to open ANY shorts until when US session is about to end (4 hrs from time of writing this)
to ensure that Michael Saylor doesnt ape another 9-10 figures on my head
I am not looking to open ANY shorts until when US session is about to end (4 hrs from time of writing this)
to ensure that Michael Saylor doesnt ape another 9-10 figures on my head
and lastly on SBR (Strategic Bitcoin Reserve)
I think there is important caveat and factors to consider
1) Does it happen (Yes/No)
2) When is it announced? And when does it go into "action" (I read something that Bill in USA takes a few months to go into action)
and most importantly 3) which coins?
3a) is it simply the DOJ seized coins that are NOT sold and turned into SBR (without additional coins being purchased)
3b) is it USA GOV buying a small amount of BTC (say 500m) is there a budget/cap?
3c) USA GOV goes full Michal Saylor and buys billions
I think there is important caveat and factors to consider
1) Does it happen (Yes/No)
2) When is it announced? And when does it go into "action" (I read something that Bill in USA takes a few months to go into action)
and most importantly 3) which coins?
3a) is it simply the DOJ seized coins that are NOT sold and turned into SBR (without additional coins being purchased)
3b) is it USA GOV buying a small amount of BTC (say 500m) is there a budget/cap?
3c) USA GOV goes full Michal Saylor and buys billions
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Big day tomorrow and arguably one of biggest weeks for our industry for next few years
Tomorrow US markets are closed due to Holiday, Trump Inauguration is around 5 PM UTC, once he is President, he can start sending out Executive Orders (historically almost always some are issued the day of Inauguration) and many in the coming days after (please see the image - useful context for when to expect EOs (executive orders)
then CME open 6 hours after inauguration
TRUMP (his memecoin) reached $80b FDV flipping DOGE and being 7th biggest crypto by FDV while Coinbase and Robinhood (and maybe Upbit?) havent listed spot markets (yet)
I do believe TRUMP mind-share/volumes should peak locally within the coming days (I do not advocate for shorting parabolas, its a dangerous game)
Good luck everybody, will probably post lots of updates in the coming days. Get some rest.
Tomorrow US markets are closed due to Holiday, Trump Inauguration is around 5 PM UTC, once he is President, he can start sending out Executive Orders (historically almost always some are issued the day of Inauguration) and many in the coming days after (please see the image - useful context for when to expect EOs (executive orders)
then CME open 6 hours after inauguration
TRUMP (his memecoin) reached $80b FDV flipping DOGE and being 7th biggest crypto by FDV while Coinbase and Robinhood (and maybe Upbit?) havent listed spot markets (yet)
I do believe TRUMP mind-share/volumes should peak locally within the coming days (I do not advocate for shorting parabolas, its a dangerous game)
Good luck everybody, will probably post lots of updates in the coming days. Get some rest.
When it comes to Executive Orders - I would personally hope so - on behalf of my American friends, that some topics are priority over our internet magic coins (such as Immigration, US debt, LA fires etc.)
no crypto mention nor BTC Strategic reserves at all during his "Victory celebration speech" which just ended
at least their team managed to launch a memecoin for his wife (please do not buy it...)
at least their team managed to launch a memecoin for his wife (please do not buy it...)
Buying off of "rumoured leak" on Twitter is silly
BTC -6% intraday
45 minutes until Trump becomes president
If you want to watch, Donald Trump is streaming the ceremony on his twitter
https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1881372933710589978
BTC -6% intraday
45 minutes until Trump becomes president
If you want to watch, Donald Trump is streaming the ceremony on his twitter
https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1881372933710589978
i am a buyer (BTC) if there is EO (executive order) saying "buying BTC for SBR"