Next 7 days / Market outlook:
TLDR: Expecting a LOT of volatility/headlines/macro related day-trades. Still considering Donald Trump Inauguration (Jan 20th 2025 as pivotal date) as I believe MSTR runs out of money before that.
Day-to-day break-down:
December 15th (Sunday):
- Saylor tweet his usual Sunday “Needs more Dots on the Chart” tweet? (Yes/No)
- Monitor CME open + Weekly close (BTC + MSTR)
Michael Saylor for 5th or 6th week in a row posted the same tweet (dots on chart) which consequently leads to MSTR BTC purchase announcement 90 minutes before US open tomorrow (Monday 2PM CET)
First thing I will look out for is how MSTR price (Microstrategy - stock) will behave upon CME open as a result of MSTR inclusion in QQQ. To simplify my thought process I look at MSTR a bit like this
MSTR price go up → MSTR premium goes up → Saylor more likely to buy more BTC (via raising more capital at 0% interest or selling more stock) → Saylor creates buy pressure on BTC that makes price go up → MSTR price go up (as its levered BTC)
— in best interest of Saylor to buy as much as possible as quickly as possible, as I believe he has around 9b left (which at 2b/week pace lines up just fine for Inaguration/before their Blackout period)
There are 16 days left in 2024 and realistically around 10-11 working days left in the year (accounted for Christmas break, New Years Eve, weekends etc.). Emphasis on Working Days is because I believe Saylor is only buying on Working days. I expect week of 23rd-29th December to be a lot slower for that reason.
December 16th (Monday):
All eyes on MSTR price action and BTC price action during US trading session
Macro: US Flash Services PMI/Manufacturing PMI (nothingburger)
December 18th (Wednesday):
Macro: FOMC (USA Rate Cut)
December 19th (Thursday):
Macro: BOJ meeting + Core Retail Sales
December 20th (Friday):
Macro: USA Core PCE
Macro events move Traditional markets, which do still affect (in my opinion) BTC, therefore broader crypto market. TradFi is comfy making new All-time-highs alongside BTC. Few previous weeks were very calm, without many headlines.
Realistically, MSTR inclusion to QQQ happens on December 23rd, last Fridays headlines were just “news/confirmation”. It is yet to be seen how the inclusion affects MSTR price action. After New Years, I expect all the narrative to shift back to USA BTC strategic reserve, as MSTR should slow down or completely stop their purchasing frenzy due to Blackout period.
As for other parts of the crypto market
- Memecoins have been struggling past few weeks
- Crypto natives seem to have fully shifted their attention to new ecosystems (Hyperliquid) while SOL bleeds
- Altcoins that World Liberty Finance (WLF - Donald Trumps project) keeps buying are performing well (LINK, ENA, COW etc.)
Our positioning:
- 100% spot BTC long
- Currently around 2% of BTC was hedged via BTC/USD short on Perps
- Looking to add to hedges higher on BTC/USD
Will update if something major happens, good luck have fun this week 🤝
TLDR: Expecting a LOT of volatility/headlines/macro related day-trades. Still considering Donald Trump Inauguration (Jan 20th 2025 as pivotal date) as I believe MSTR runs out of money before that.
Day-to-day break-down:
December 15th (Sunday):
- Saylor tweet his usual Sunday “Needs more Dots on the Chart” tweet? (Yes/No)
- Monitor CME open + Weekly close (BTC + MSTR)
Michael Saylor for 5th or 6th week in a row posted the same tweet (dots on chart) which consequently leads to MSTR BTC purchase announcement 90 minutes before US open tomorrow (Monday 2PM CET)
First thing I will look out for is how MSTR price (Microstrategy - stock) will behave upon CME open as a result of MSTR inclusion in QQQ. To simplify my thought process I look at MSTR a bit like this
MSTR price go up → MSTR premium goes up → Saylor more likely to buy more BTC (via raising more capital at 0% interest or selling more stock) → Saylor creates buy pressure on BTC that makes price go up → MSTR price go up (as its levered BTC)
— in best interest of Saylor to buy as much as possible as quickly as possible, as I believe he has around 9b left (which at 2b/week pace lines up just fine for Inaguration/before their Blackout period)
There are 16 days left in 2024 and realistically around 10-11 working days left in the year (accounted for Christmas break, New Years Eve, weekends etc.). Emphasis on Working Days is because I believe Saylor is only buying on Working days. I expect week of 23rd-29th December to be a lot slower for that reason.
December 16th (Monday):
All eyes on MSTR price action and BTC price action during US trading session
Macro: US Flash Services PMI/Manufacturing PMI (nothingburger)
December 18th (Wednesday):
Macro: FOMC (USA Rate Cut)
December 19th (Thursday):
Macro: BOJ meeting + Core Retail Sales
December 20th (Friday):
Macro: USA Core PCE
Macro events move Traditional markets, which do still affect (in my opinion) BTC, therefore broader crypto market. TradFi is comfy making new All-time-highs alongside BTC. Few previous weeks were very calm, without many headlines.
Realistically, MSTR inclusion to QQQ happens on December 23rd, last Fridays headlines were just “news/confirmation”. It is yet to be seen how the inclusion affects MSTR price action. After New Years, I expect all the narrative to shift back to USA BTC strategic reserve, as MSTR should slow down or completely stop their purchasing frenzy due to Blackout period.
As for other parts of the crypto market
- Memecoins have been struggling past few weeks
- Crypto natives seem to have fully shifted their attention to new ecosystems (Hyperliquid) while SOL bleeds
- Altcoins that World Liberty Finance (WLF - Donald Trumps project) keeps buying are performing well (LINK, ENA, COW etc.)
Our positioning:
- 100% spot BTC long
- Currently around 2% of BTC was hedged via BTC/USD short on Perps
- Looking to add to hedges higher on BTC/USD
Will update if something major happens, good luck have fun this week 🤝
https://x.com/saylor/status/1868277366226841996
Michael Saylor just posted the usual "Missing a green dot?"
The tweet I was referencing 2 hours ago 🤝
Michael Saylor just posted the usual "Missing a green dot?"
The tweet I was referencing 2 hours ago 🤝
RunnerXBT
Next 7 days / Market outlook: TLDR: Expecting a LOT of volatility/headlines/macro related day-trades. Still considering Donald Trump Inauguration (Jan 20th 2025 as pivotal date) as I believe MSTR runs out of money before that. Day-to-day break-down: December…
CME open, opens with 104k tap
should be a really really wild week
good night
should be a really really wild week
good night
RunnerXBT
Next 7 days / Market outlook: TLDR: Expecting a LOT of volatility/headlines/macro related day-trades. Still considering Donald Trump Inauguration (Jan 20th 2025 as pivotal date) as I believe MSTR runs out of money before that. Day-to-day break-down: December…
MSTR +6% pre-market so far
in 4 hours MSTR announces BTC purchase 🙏
in 4 hours MSTR announces BTC purchase 🙏
MSTR purchased $1.5 b in BTC last week (15 350 BTC)
here we go (exactly 4 hrs from last msg to the dot)
here we go (exactly 4 hrs from last msg to the dot)
FOMC yesterday delivered big.
Jerome Powell speech spooked the market and resulted in 4% correction in SP500. VIX (Volatility index) went up almost 100% in the same timeframe.
Crypto isnt immune and dumped with it, while BTC poked below 100k for a brief moment, I closed our short position on BTC.
I do believe this was a (local) bottom for at least few days (i know not very generous of me)
My reasoning is simple
- VIX going parabolic always results in a nuke in markets which is almost always a great buy. Last time it happened was big liquidation cascade on August 5th (Surprise Bank of Japan Hike/Cut)
- TradFi is already recovering pre-market
I highly encourage you to do this homework, look at all peaks on VIX (daily/weekly chart) and overlay it with BTC price action
Our positioning
- 100% BTC spot long (looking to start hedging again as I believe week of December 23rd should be slow due to holidays/EoY
- Long SOL (around 20% of desired position size so far)
almost 800 mil usd liquidations in last 24hrs, hopefully nobody here got hit
Jerome Powell speech spooked the market and resulted in 4% correction in SP500. VIX (Volatility index) went up almost 100% in the same timeframe.
Crypto isnt immune and dumped with it, while BTC poked below 100k for a brief moment, I closed our short position on BTC.
I do believe this was a (local) bottom for at least few days (i know not very generous of me)
My reasoning is simple
- VIX going parabolic always results in a nuke in markets which is almost always a great buy. Last time it happened was big liquidation cascade on August 5th (Surprise Bank of Japan Hike/Cut)
- TradFi is already recovering pre-market
I highly encourage you to do this homework, look at all peaks on VIX (daily/weekly chart) and overlay it with BTC price action
Our positioning
- 100% BTC spot long (looking to start hedging again as I believe week of December 23rd should be slow due to holidays/EoY
- Long SOL (around 20% of desired position size so far)
almost 800 mil usd liquidations in last 24hrs, hopefully nobody here got hit
image_2024-12-24_23-15-09.png
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Todays move has been Binance spot and Binance Perps led, Coinbase followed afterwards. There was also no Coinbase Premium
What I am trying to say is that I dont think it was Saylor or ETFs buying today (due to Holidays/shorter Work Day in TradFi) but Binance Degens
Which has not happened in a long time. Finally.
Wishing everybody a Merry X-mas & Happy New Year
What I am trying to say is that I dont think it was Saylor or ETFs buying today (due to Holidays/shorter Work Day in TradFi) but Binance Degens
Which has not happened in a long time. Finally.
Wishing everybody a Merry X-mas & Happy New Year
tg_image_2350210468.png
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January 17th 2025 Update:
Today is Friday (last working day) before Donald Trump Inauguration on Monday. Monday is a holiday and markets are closed (we have 3 day weekend)
Since US open (2hrs 15 min ago) there was insane spike in buying on all fronts (see chart) with meaningful Coinbase premium
I suspect Michael Saylor and ETFs (boomers in general) and also retail market participants (me and you both) are FOMOing extremely hard due to SBR (Strategic Bitcoin Reserve) narrative
and the last day when one could traditionally FOMO, with good liquidity is... well Today
This extreme sentiment optimism and flip-flopping (as people were calling for end of the world just last week due to Macro conditions) is very normal in times of volatility.
Second image shows orderflow data, Open Interest (effectively amount of leverage in the system) is going parabolic today and this often leads to both sides of the market getting punished.
I do expect volatility to calm down as US session ends and then I will try to get as much rest as possible for Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday as I will be glued to my PC 24/7.
It is obvious to me that market is expecting BSR news to drop on Monday or Tuesday the latest. anticipation is very high. Makes me wonder if its another BTC Nashville moment (July 27th 2024)
as we are 100% spot BTC, I have to consider multiple scenarios
1) SBR gets announced day 1 (Monday) or Tuesday the latest -> enjoy pump to a lot fucking higher
2) SBR doesnt get announced instantly, overleveraged market starts panicking, woala a recipe for disaster -> i will hedge some of our BTC spot via BTC futs short
Nobody knows when and how SBR announcement looks like, but TLDR its obvious that our entire price action in the coming days and weeks revolves around this ONE event alone
I am personally not sure this is time to be a hero.
Good luck to all of us. Update on Monday/Tuesday.
Today is Friday (last working day) before Donald Trump Inauguration on Monday. Monday is a holiday and markets are closed (we have 3 day weekend)
Since US open (2hrs 15 min ago) there was insane spike in buying on all fronts (see chart) with meaningful Coinbase premium
I suspect Michael Saylor and ETFs (boomers in general) and also retail market participants (me and you both) are FOMOing extremely hard due to SBR (Strategic Bitcoin Reserve) narrative
and the last day when one could traditionally FOMO, with good liquidity is... well Today
This extreme sentiment optimism and flip-flopping (as people were calling for end of the world just last week due to Macro conditions) is very normal in times of volatility.
Second image shows orderflow data, Open Interest (effectively amount of leverage in the system) is going parabolic today and this often leads to both sides of the market getting punished.
I do expect volatility to calm down as US session ends and then I will try to get as much rest as possible for Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday as I will be glued to my PC 24/7.
It is obvious to me that market is expecting BSR news to drop on Monday or Tuesday the latest. anticipation is very high. Makes me wonder if its another BTC Nashville moment (July 27th 2024)
as we are 100% spot BTC, I have to consider multiple scenarios
1) SBR gets announced day 1 (Monday) or Tuesday the latest -> enjoy pump to a lot fucking higher
2) SBR doesnt get announced instantly, overleveraged market starts panicking, woala a recipe for disaster -> i will hedge some of our BTC spot via BTC futs short
Nobody knows when and how SBR announcement looks like, but TLDR its obvious that our entire price action in the coming days and weeks revolves around this ONE event alone
I am personally not sure this is time to be a hero.
Good luck to all of us. Update on Monday/Tuesday.
BTC nashville example
it was (felt) exactly the same, community expected insane speech from (now) President Trump, yet it was underwhelming due to the fact that market pumped super hard leading into it.
I am not saying that I expect it necessarily to be classic sell-the-news event
but if (very eager) community doesnt get exactly what they want, i expect lots of longs covering
it was (felt) exactly the same, community expected insane speech from (now) President Trump, yet it was underwhelming due to the fact that market pumped super hard leading into it.
I am not saying that I expect it necessarily to be classic sell-the-news event
but if (very eager) community doesnt get exactly what they want, i expect lots of longs covering
if anybody is in the same boat like me (100% BTC spot long)
I am not looking to open ANY shorts until when US session is about to end (4 hrs from time of writing this)
to ensure that Michael Saylor doesnt ape another 9-10 figures on my head
I am not looking to open ANY shorts until when US session is about to end (4 hrs from time of writing this)
to ensure that Michael Saylor doesnt ape another 9-10 figures on my head
and lastly on SBR (Strategic Bitcoin Reserve)
I think there is important caveat and factors to consider
1) Does it happen (Yes/No)
2) When is it announced? And when does it go into "action" (I read something that Bill in USA takes a few months to go into action)
and most importantly 3) which coins?
3a) is it simply the DOJ seized coins that are NOT sold and turned into SBR (without additional coins being purchased)
3b) is it USA GOV buying a small amount of BTC (say 500m) is there a budget/cap?
3c) USA GOV goes full Michal Saylor and buys billions
I think there is important caveat and factors to consider
1) Does it happen (Yes/No)
2) When is it announced? And when does it go into "action" (I read something that Bill in USA takes a few months to go into action)
and most importantly 3) which coins?
3a) is it simply the DOJ seized coins that are NOT sold and turned into SBR (without additional coins being purchased)
3b) is it USA GOV buying a small amount of BTC (say 500m) is there a budget/cap?
3c) USA GOV goes full Michal Saylor and buys billions