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I am giving Trump's speech one last time
He will be shortly speaking on his little podium and after/during the event signing some EOs (Executive Orders), that is a table with bunch of books (filled with EOs)
stream on his Twitter: https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1881419736648499257
He will be shortly speaking on his little podium and after/during the event signing some EOs (Executive Orders), that is a table with bunch of books (filled with EOs)
stream on his Twitter: https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1881419736648499257
Extremely underwhelming, all day
People got excited on Twitter leak and since BTC has just been down only. Trump delivered (so far) zero "Day 1" promises for Crypto.
People got excited on Twitter leak and since BTC has just been down only. Trump delivered (so far) zero "Day 1" promises for Crypto.
RunnerXBT
Tomorrow, January 21st is Microstrategy shareholder meeting. MicroStrategy plans to increase authorized shares to support its Bitcoin purchasing strategy. Key focus of the vote will be to approve an increase in authorized Class A common stock from 330 million…
BWENEWS: MicroStrategy shareholders approve increasing shares from 330M to 10.3B (55.8% approval), clearing a path for more #Bitcoin acquisitions. https://x.com/Cointelegraph/status/1881729687275397328
X (formerly Twitter)
Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph) on X
⚡️ JUST IN: MicroStrategy shareholders approve increasing shares from 330M to 10.3B (55.8% approval), clearing a path for more #Bitcoin acquisitions.
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Very eventful day today filled with 3 intra-day trading opportunities.
In this post I will cover all 3 of them, how I traded first 2 and how I plan to trade the third one coming up.
Disclaimer: If you dont really day-trade, this might not be a post for you, however perhaps you can pick-up something when it comes to decision making on LTFs.
Initial context: Its President Trumps 4th day in the office and first 10-30 days are historically most impactful as most Executive Orders and decisions are made
Trade 1:
Senator Lummis posts on X "Big Things are coming, Stay tuned for 10 AM" (Link)
My reasoning: Lummis is a long-term BTC/Crypto bull, has been public for a long time, she was proponent of SBR and BTC-Bill, however, she is "just a senator" and no way she has power to announce anything that would REALLY move the market. I expect her announcement to be "nothingburger" and decided to short in advance as i was 95% confident this would be a sell the news.
BTC moved 4% from her tweet, which is frankly insane if you ask me.
Market being so extremely excited for any pro-crypto headline and desperate for SBR headline moved up with leverage.
10 AM came and it was "Honored to chair the Senate Banking Subcommittee on Digital Assets."
Which is obviously great news but did not meet expectations of the market and it sold off.
First Image is chart
Second Image is my execution
Second and third trade coming shortly.
In this post I will cover all 3 of them, how I traded first 2 and how I plan to trade the third one coming up.
Disclaimer: If you dont really day-trade, this might not be a post for you, however perhaps you can pick-up something when it comes to decision making on LTFs.
Initial context: Its President Trumps 4th day in the office and first 10-30 days are historically most impactful as most Executive Orders and decisions are made
Trade 1:
Senator Lummis posts on X "Big Things are coming, Stay tuned for 10 AM" (Link)
My reasoning: Lummis is a long-term BTC/Crypto bull, has been public for a long time, she was proponent of SBR and BTC-Bill, however, she is "just a senator" and no way she has power to announce anything that would REALLY move the market. I expect her announcement to be "nothingburger" and decided to short in advance as i was 95% confident this would be a sell the news.
BTC moved 4% from her tweet, which is frankly insane if you ask me.
Market being so extremely excited for any pro-crypto headline and desperate for SBR headline moved up with leverage.
10 AM came and it was "Honored to chair the Senate Banking Subcommittee on Digital Assets."
Which is obviously great news but did not meet expectations of the market and it sold off.
First Image is chart
Second Image is my execution
Second and third trade coming shortly.
Trade 2:
Headline on Twitter (Link) & Donald Trump speaking online at WEF in Davos in which he mentions "USA to become capital of AI and crypto"
My reasoning: Crypto community got excited about the El Salvador headline, because it is a country that was first to adopt BTC and its Volcano Bonds (TLDR: Pro crypto country), again a "naive" crypto community ran with the headline as if President Trump was going to talk to Mr. Bukele about Bitcoin.
A cherry on the top was him mentioning "Capital of crypto".
I started shorting again, as I expect him ending his WEF speech as sell the news
Why I wasnt afraid of the El Salvador headline, I will discuss in Trade 3) below in a second
First Image is chart
Second Image is my execution
Third trade goes hand in hand with 3rd trade
Headline on Twitter (Link) & Donald Trump speaking online at WEF in Davos in which he mentions "USA to become capital of AI and crypto"
My reasoning: Crypto community got excited about the El Salvador headline, because it is a country that was first to adopt BTC and its Volcano Bonds (TLDR: Pro crypto country), again a "naive" crypto community ran with the headline as if President Trump was going to talk to Mr. Bukele about Bitcoin.
A cherry on the top was him mentioning "Capital of crypto".
I started shorting again, as I expect him ending his WEF speech as sell the news
Why I wasnt afraid of the El Salvador headline, I will discuss in Trade 3) below in a second
First Image is chart
Second Image is my execution
Third trade goes hand in hand with 3rd trade
Trade 3: (Yet to play out - multiple scenarios)
Headline on Twitter (Link ) Trump to hold a call with President of El Salvador at 3:30 PM ET, Trump to sign EO 1 hour sooner
My reasoning: This will be a bit more nuanced and longer version than previous 2 as its in the future and isnt easier hindsight analysis.
Crypto community is, as per usual, expecting Trump and El Salvador Bukele to discuss Bitcoin, Bitcoin strategy and Bitcoin reserves/bonds (the "best possible scenario" if you will)
I do personally think, that Trump and his admin do like crypto and will be pro-crypto (as we have seen him launch 2 SOL shitcoins $TRUMP and $MELANIA), however on 4th day of presidency, when he has not even spoken to Putin about ending war in Ukraine, does he REALLY prioritize crypto talk? we are yet to see
What I think the call and executive order today will be around is Migration/Deportation and around such topics (borders...), therefore AGAIN, a disappointment for crypto community
How am I going to approach it step by step with time stamps. I really do believe I am making a mistake by sharing step by step but what I wouldnt do for my friends right :wink:
at 2:30 PM ET (8:30 CET or 20:30 for my Euro friends) an Executive Order will be uploaded / hit the news aggregators and scrapers
Link to White House website, personally I think you are going to be a bit faster just following on Twitter (DB, Tree of Alpha, Zoomer...)
at 2:30 PM ET we will instantly see: "is it Crypto, or not?"
if yes -> giga turbo mega long my longs (my personal probability 5%)
if no -> expecting same disappointing outcome, a bit off BTC sell-off, as with Two trades mentioned above (my personal probability 95%)
if yes -> market buy BTC with size (if BTC strategic reserve is mentioned)
if no -> market sell BTC with size (as BTC is going to go down few % intraday again)
Regardless of Yes/No, I dont plan to overstay my welcome, I expect to hold the trade for few minutes maximum, if we really would get BTC SBR and USA to buy Billions of BTC, maybe I want to hold that long a bit longer
Given the context mentioned thru these posts/essay (whatever you want to call it), I believe its unlikely for Trump to discuss Bitcoin on 4th day of his presidency
HOWEVER, if he does, that is TRULY our best long-signal ever.
Closing words: I think we will get pro-crypto headlines and executive orders eventually, I just dont see them as their priority, nor should it be. For crypto we have a pro-crypto friendly teams like SEC and CFTC and afformentioned Sen Lummis :-)
Will update once EO hits the website. Good luck
Headline on Twitter (Link ) Trump to hold a call with President of El Salvador at 3:30 PM ET, Trump to sign EO 1 hour sooner
My reasoning: This will be a bit more nuanced and longer version than previous 2 as its in the future and isnt easier hindsight analysis.
Crypto community is, as per usual, expecting Trump and El Salvador Bukele to discuss Bitcoin, Bitcoin strategy and Bitcoin reserves/bonds (the "best possible scenario" if you will)
I do personally think, that Trump and his admin do like crypto and will be pro-crypto (as we have seen him launch 2 SOL shitcoins $TRUMP and $MELANIA), however on 4th day of presidency, when he has not even spoken to Putin about ending war in Ukraine, does he REALLY prioritize crypto talk? we are yet to see
What I think the call and executive order today will be around is Migration/Deportation and around such topics (borders...), therefore AGAIN, a disappointment for crypto community
How am I going to approach it step by step with time stamps. I really do believe I am making a mistake by sharing step by step but what I wouldnt do for my friends right :wink:
at 2:30 PM ET (8:30 CET or 20:30 for my Euro friends) an Executive Order will be uploaded / hit the news aggregators and scrapers
Link to White House website, personally I think you are going to be a bit faster just following on Twitter (DB, Tree of Alpha, Zoomer...)
at 2:30 PM ET we will instantly see: "is it Crypto, or not?"
if yes -> giga turbo mega long my longs (my personal probability 5%)
if no -> expecting same disappointing outcome, a bit off BTC sell-off, as with Two trades mentioned above (my personal probability 95%)
if yes -> market buy BTC with size (if BTC strategic reserve is mentioned)
if no -> market sell BTC with size (as BTC is going to go down few % intraday again)
Regardless of Yes/No, I dont plan to overstay my welcome, I expect to hold the trade for few minutes maximum, if we really would get BTC SBR and USA to buy Billions of BTC, maybe I want to hold that long a bit longer
Given the context mentioned thru these posts/essay (whatever you want to call it), I believe its unlikely for Trump to discuss Bitcoin on 4th day of his presidency
HOWEVER, if he does, that is TRULY our best long-signal ever.
Closing words: I think we will get pro-crypto headlines and executive orders eventually, I just dont see them as their priority, nor should it be. For crypto we have a pro-crypto friendly teams like SEC and CFTC and afformentioned Sen Lummis :-)
Will update once EO hits the website. Good luck
apologies was mistake in the time zones (feel free to Google/to convert to your timezones)
EO comes 2:30 PM ET which is 20:30 Prague time (long and tiring day sorry)
90 minutes to go basically!
EO comes 2:30 PM ET which is 20:30 Prague time (long and tiring day sorry)
90 minutes to go basically!
a lot of derisking since CME open, imo due to multiple factors
-1st degree of importance: DeepSeek (read: website)
-2nd degree of importance: busy macro events week from Wednesday to Friday + Tech stocks earnings
-3rd degree of importance: USA imposing tarriffs on countries
TLDR: AI stuff is pulling down equities, which are pulling down BTC, altcoins? yes
Chinese AI was trained for peanuts and US (global) market is realizing some of these AI valuations are ?overblown?
-1st degree of importance: DeepSeek (read: website)
-2nd degree of importance: busy macro events week from Wednesday to Friday + Tech stocks earnings
-3rd degree of importance: USA imposing tarriffs on countries
TLDR: AI stuff is pulling down equities, which are pulling down BTC, altcoins? yes
Chinese AI was trained for peanuts and US (global) market is realizing some of these AI valuations are ?overblown?
*BTC DOWN 7%
*GOLD DOWN 1%
*PRE-MARKET MOVES:
META DOWN 4.5%
TESLA DOWN 4%
NVIDIA DOWN 8%
GOOGLE DOWN 3.2%
AMAZON DOWN 3.2%
MICROSOFT DOWN 3.5%
BROADCOM DOWN 8%
Likely Reasons:
*China's AI Fear, China developing AI despite huge sanctions by US on GPUs
*China's deepseek has surpassed ChatGPT in App store rankings, Meta in panic mode, fear deepseek is better than upcoming Llama 4..
*BOJ raised interest rates to 17 years high
*First FOMC meeting under Trump & Major Tech Earnings coming this week..
*GOLD DOWN 1%
*PRE-MARKET MOVES:
META DOWN 4.5%
TESLA DOWN 4%
NVIDIA DOWN 8%
GOOGLE DOWN 3.2%
AMAZON DOWN 3.2%
MICROSOFT DOWN 3.5%
BROADCOM DOWN 8%
Likely Reasons:
*China's AI Fear, China developing AI despite huge sanctions by US on GPUs
*China's deepseek has surpassed ChatGPT in App store rankings, Meta in panic mode, fear deepseek is better than upcoming Llama 4..
*BOJ raised interest rates to 17 years high
*First FOMC meeting under Trump & Major Tech Earnings coming this week..
U.S. STOCK INDEX FUTURES EXTEND LOSSES; S&P 500 E-MINI FUTURES DOWN 2.3%, NASDAQ FUTURES SLIDE 4%, DOW FUTURES FALL 1%
$NVDA - AI-LINKED STOCKS EXTEND PREMARKET LOSSES
NVIDIA DOWN 11.3%, BROADCOM DOWN 14.1%
—————-
Expecting markets to stabilize between Thursday/Friday this week
VIX +40%
NVIDIA DOWN 11.3%, BROADCOM DOWN 14.1%
—————-
Expecting markets to stabilize between Thursday/Friday this week
VIX +40%
$NVDA -17% TODAY
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/stock-market-today-nasdaq-sinks-sp-500-tumbles-as-ai-fears-rock-tech-stocks-143116264.html
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/stock-market-today-nasdaq-sinks-sp-500-tumbles-as-ai-fears-rock-tech-stocks-143116264.html
Yahoo Finance
Stock market today: Nasdaq clobbered, Nvidia sinks 17% while Dow stages comeback as AI fears shake markets
A Chinese startup's promise of cheaper AI has rattled faith in the growth prospects for tech stocks.
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Market currently correcting following Trump Admin announcement of Tariffs that go into effect starting tomorrow
With traditional/boomer markets closing in 50 minutes, I expect lots of chop until CME open (50 hours from now)
Trump is a volatility gift that keeps on giving...
With traditional/boomer markets closing in 50 minutes, I expect lots of chop until CME open (50 hours from now)
Trump is a volatility gift that keeps on giving...
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Classic Binance behaviour, nonstop selling all weekend at aggressive pace
last 2 days price action:
BTC -5%
BTC.D +3%
Strong altcoins -30%
Memecoins/AI agents -50%
Brutal weekend, I think crypto is frontrunning a very bad CME open (due to tarriffs..)
last 2 days price action:
BTC -5%
BTC.D +3%
Strong altcoins -30%
Memecoins/AI agents -50%
Brutal weekend, I think crypto is frontrunning a very bad CME open (due to tarriffs..)
2.3b liquidated in crypto in last 24 hrs.
I hope you are all fine
This is May 2021 style capitulation.
I hope you are all fine
This is May 2021 style capitulation.