Trade 3: (Yet to play out - multiple scenarios)
Headline on Twitter (Link ) Trump to hold a call with President of El Salvador at 3:30 PM ET, Trump to sign EO 1 hour sooner

My reasoning: This will be a bit more nuanced and longer version than previous 2 as its in the future and isnt easier hindsight analysis.
Crypto community is, as per usual, expecting Trump and El Salvador Bukele to discuss Bitcoin, Bitcoin strategy and Bitcoin reserves/bonds (the "best possible scenario" if you will)

I do personally think, that Trump and his admin do like crypto and will be pro-crypto (as we have seen him launch 2 SOL shitcoins $TRUMP and $MELANIA), however on 4th day of presidency, when he has not even spoken to Putin about ending war in Ukraine, does he REALLY prioritize crypto talk? we are yet to see

What I think the call and executive order today will be around is Migration/Deportation and around such topics (borders...), therefore AGAIN, a disappointment for crypto community
How am I going to approach it step by step with time stamps. I really do believe I am making a mistake by sharing step by step but what I wouldnt do for my friends right :wink:

at 2:30 PM ET (8:30 CET or 20:30 for my Euro friends) an Executive Order will be uploaded / hit the news aggregators and scrapers
Link to White House website, personally I think you are going to be a bit faster just following on Twitter (DB, Tree of Alpha, Zoomer...)

at 2:30 PM ET we will instantly see: "is it Crypto, or not?"

if yes -> giga turbo mega long my longs (my personal probability 5%)
if no -> expecting same disappointing outcome, a bit off BTC sell-off, as with Two trades mentioned above (my personal probability 95%)

if yes -> market buy BTC with size (if BTC strategic reserve is mentioned)
if no -> market sell BTC with size (as BTC is going to go down few % intraday again)

Regardless of Yes/No, I dont plan to overstay my welcome, I expect to hold the trade for few minutes maximum, if we really would get BTC SBR and USA to buy Billions of BTC, maybe I want to hold that long a bit longer

Given the context mentioned thru these posts/essay (whatever you want to call it), I believe its unlikely for Trump to discuss Bitcoin on 4th day of his presidency
HOWEVER, if he does, that is TRULY our best long-signal ever.

Closing words: I think we will get pro-crypto headlines and executive orders eventually, I just dont see them as their priority, nor should it be. For crypto we have a pro-crypto friendly teams like SEC and CFTC and afformentioned Sen Lummis :-)

Will update once EO hits the website. Good luck

apologies was mistake in the time zones (feel free to Google/to convert to your timezones)

EO comes 2:30 PM ET which is 20:30 Prague time (long and tiring day sorry)

90 minutes to go basically!

holy shit

EO related to crypto (no details yet?)

(not longin myself)

well SBR announced so gg

a lot of derisking since CME open, imo due to multiple factors

-1st degree of importance: DeepSeek (read: website)
-2nd degree of importance: busy macro events week from Wednesday to Friday + Tech stocks earnings
-3rd degree of importance: USA imposing tarriffs on countries

TLDR: AI stuff is pulling down equities, which are pulling down BTC, altcoins? yes
Chinese AI was trained for peanuts and US (global) market is realizing some of these AI valuations are ?overblown?

*BTC DOWN 7%
*GOLD DOWN 1%

*PRE-MARKET MOVES:
META DOWN 4.5%
TESLA DOWN 4%
NVIDIA DOWN 8%
GOOGLE DOWN 3.2%
AMAZON DOWN 3.2%
MICROSOFT DOWN 3.5%
BROADCOM DOWN 8%

Likely Reasons:
*China's AI Fear, China developing AI despite huge sanctions by US on GPUs
*China's deepseek has surpassed ChatGPT in App store rankings, Meta in panic mode, fear deepseek is better than upcoming Llama 4..
*BOJ raised interest rates to 17 years high
*First FOMC meeting under Trump & Major Tech Earnings coming this week..

U.S. STOCK INDEX FUTURES EXTEND LOSSES; S&P 500 E-MINI FUTURES DOWN 2.3%, NASDAQ FUTURES SLIDE 4%, DOW FUTURES FALL 1%

$NVDA - AI-LINKED STOCKS EXTEND PREMARKET LOSSES

NVIDIA DOWN 11.3%, BROADCOM DOWN 14.1%

—————-

Expecting markets to stabilize between Thursday/Friday this week

VIX +40%

$NVDA -17% TODAY

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/stock-market-today-nasdaq-sinks-sp-500-tumbles-as-ai-fears-rock-tech-stocks-143116264.html

Market currently correcting following Trump Admin announcement of Tariffs that go into effect starting tomorrow

With traditional/boomer markets closing in 50 minutes, I expect lots of chop until CME open (50 hours from now)

Trump is a volatility gift that keeps on giving...

Classic Binance behaviour, nonstop selling all weekend at aggressive pace

last 2 days price action:
BTC -5%
BTC.D +3%
Strong altcoins -30%
Memecoins/AI agents -50%

Brutal weekend, I think crypto is frontrunning a very bad CME open (due to tarriffs..)

good luck out there

2.3b liquidated in crypto in last 24 hrs.

I hope you are all fine

This is May 2021 style capitulation.

it was indeed. a very... bad .... CME open

wrong, a lot more $$ was liquidated

just 2.1b on ByBit according to CEO

https://x.com/aggrnews/status/1886393000130965651?s=46&t=17ly50Vlll8LmKuyomFMTg

PRESIDENT TRUMP'S WHITE HOUSE A.I. AND CRYPTO CZAR DAVID SACKS WILL HOST A PRESS CONFERENCE ON FEBRUARY 4 AT 2:30PM ET ON DIGITAL ASSETS

*They will discuss How the trump administration & congress will work together to secure america as a leader in the digital asset ecosystem.

Unfortunate turn of events last few days

At first stocks were pumping, Saylor announced 2b convert, market started recovering after Milei-scandal, SEC drops Coinbase suit

turned into... stocks -2% into Opex (options expirations) & biggest ever crypto hack in ByBit 1.46b in ETH

I think (and hope for sake of everyone) that ByBit will be fine and users will be fine, withdrawing funds into safety is always a good move until things clear out

More than 9% of all BTC Open Interest has left the system with ByBit OI down 20%, to me that indicates that people with open positions on ByBit are closing/derisking and offramping. Very "systematic" selling

TradFi closes in 40 minutes, I think market bounces nicely once there is positive news about ByBit situation

TLDR: Stonks bad, ByBit really bad, people panicking, Saylor will save us again

Have a good weekend

a tough week for crypto and frankly unfortunate timing, Saylor stopped his 2b purchase right before series of bad news into weak TradFi markets

We had a tiny bit of bounce after ByBit news, however tradfi has seen a really bad week with a combination of already weak crypto market

ETFs yesterday have seen a biggest Outflow day ever (almost 1b outflow)

NVIDIA earnings today and PCE on Friday.