well SBR announced so gg

a lot of derisking since CME open, imo due to multiple factors

-1st degree of importance: DeepSeek (read: website)
-2nd degree of importance: busy macro events week from Wednesday to Friday + Tech stocks earnings
-3rd degree of importance: USA imposing tarriffs on countries

TLDR: AI stuff is pulling down equities, which are pulling down BTC, altcoins? yes
Chinese AI was trained for peanuts and US (global) market is realizing some of these AI valuations are ?overblown?

*BTC DOWN 7%
*GOLD DOWN 1%

*PRE-MARKET MOVES:
META DOWN 4.5%
TESLA DOWN 4%
NVIDIA DOWN 8%
GOOGLE DOWN 3.2%
AMAZON DOWN 3.2%
MICROSOFT DOWN 3.5%
BROADCOM DOWN 8%

Likely Reasons:
*China's AI Fear, China developing AI despite huge sanctions by US on GPUs
*China's deepseek has surpassed ChatGPT in App store rankings, Meta in panic mode, fear deepseek is better than upcoming Llama 4..
*BOJ raised interest rates to 17 years high
*First FOMC meeting under Trump & Major Tech Earnings coming this week..

U.S. STOCK INDEX FUTURES EXTEND LOSSES; S&P 500 E-MINI FUTURES DOWN 2.3%, NASDAQ FUTURES SLIDE 4%, DOW FUTURES FALL 1%

$NVDA - AI-LINKED STOCKS EXTEND PREMARKET LOSSES

NVIDIA DOWN 11.3%, BROADCOM DOWN 14.1%

—————-

Expecting markets to stabilize between Thursday/Friday this week

VIX +40%

$NVDA -17% TODAY

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/stock-market-today-nasdaq-sinks-sp-500-tumbles-as-ai-fears-rock-tech-stocks-143116264.html

Market currently correcting following Trump Admin announcement of Tariffs that go into effect starting tomorrow

With traditional/boomer markets closing in 50 minutes, I expect lots of chop until CME open (50 hours from now)

Trump is a volatility gift that keeps on giving...

Classic Binance behaviour, nonstop selling all weekend at aggressive pace

last 2 days price action:
BTC -5%
BTC.D +3%
Strong altcoins -30%
Memecoins/AI agents -50%

Brutal weekend, I think crypto is frontrunning a very bad CME open (due to tarriffs..)

good luck out there

2.3b liquidated in crypto in last 24 hrs.

I hope you are all fine

This is May 2021 style capitulation.

it was indeed. a very... bad .... CME open

wrong, a lot more $$ was liquidated

just 2.1b on ByBit according to CEO

https://x.com/aggrnews/status/1886393000130965651?s=46&t=17ly50Vlll8LmKuyomFMTg

PRESIDENT TRUMP'S WHITE HOUSE A.I. AND CRYPTO CZAR DAVID SACKS WILL HOST A PRESS CONFERENCE ON FEBRUARY 4 AT 2:30PM ET ON DIGITAL ASSETS

*They will discuss How the trump administration & congress will work together to secure america as a leader in the digital asset ecosystem.

Unfortunate turn of events last few days

At first stocks were pumping, Saylor announced 2b convert, market started recovering after Milei-scandal, SEC drops Coinbase suit

turned into... stocks -2% into Opex (options expirations) & biggest ever crypto hack in ByBit 1.46b in ETH

I think (and hope for sake of everyone) that ByBit will be fine and users will be fine, withdrawing funds into safety is always a good move until things clear out

More than 9% of all BTC Open Interest has left the system with ByBit OI down 20%, to me that indicates that people with open positions on ByBit are closing/derisking and offramping. Very "systematic" selling

TradFi closes in 40 minutes, I think market bounces nicely once there is positive news about ByBit situation

TLDR: Stonks bad, ByBit really bad, people panicking, Saylor will save us again

Have a good weekend

a tough week for crypto and frankly unfortunate timing, Saylor stopped his 2b purchase right before series of bad news into weak TradFi markets

We had a tiny bit of bounce after ByBit news, however tradfi has seen a really bad week with a combination of already weak crypto market

ETFs yesterday have seen a biggest Outflow day ever (almost 1b outflow)

NVIDIA earnings today and PCE on Friday.

my base case for strength was always
- Saylor is buying billions worth of BTC
- ETFs (ditto)

Unfortunately (currently) we have ETFs selling at unprecedented pace, TradFi weakness and MSTR NAV premium being lowest in last 12 months (sitting at 1.46x)

https://x.com/RunnerXBT/status/1894660894728069474

a lot of people on the way up speculated, that a lot of BTC spot ETF inflows is just to do the basis trade (which is very normal for more trad/insti market participants)

TLDR: its unwinding and pretty fast
BTC CME OI back at pre-election levels

to follow-up on the post above

-2.4b in ETF outflows in last 3 days
CME BTC OI -5k BTC yesterday

I do have a feeling that Institutional Basis trade in crypto is very close to unwinding (85%-ish done)

Today (Thursday) I think will be boring and tomorrow

USA: PCE should bring a lot of volatility, also it is now Trump tradition to bring out big gun Tarriffs headlines each Friday...