2 explosions were heard in Kerch, Crimea. Cause unknown.

Patterns observed over the past 24 hours suggest that a large-scale missile strike on Ukraine is more likely to take place in the next 6 hours than I previously thought.

No radio activity on the strategic comms has been recorded yet, and if none is recorded in the next 4 hours, there probably wont be an attack. Right now I'd put the chances at around 40%, but that can change at any time.

If there is an attack, it won't be anything special. The maximum number of Tu-95s which can be used right now is 5, while as many as 6 Tu-22M3s can be used. Of course, Kalibr launches would be likely if there was an attack. as well as Iskanders, but this still wouldn't be much different than the usual ones we see.

EXCLUSIVE 🇺🇦/🇷🇺

Satellite images from today shows no signs of the bombing of a train carrying armoured vehicles and fuel by Ukrainian drones in Kherson Oblast.

The area designated only shows a bush fire

Increasing the probability of a missile strike to 70%

Activity on strategic combat frequencies has begun. A missile attack is almost certainly going to happen today.

According to new information, 5 Tu-95s (not 4) have been equipped with missiles at Olenya, in addition to 1 Tu-95 being equipped at Engels-2. The Tu-22M3s are also being equipped with missiles, although it is unclear if that is for this attack or the next one.

A masker has been activated on one of the combat frequencies. Departures of Tu-95MS strategic bombers are expected in the next hour.

One of the frequencies with activity on it is combat frequency 4389 ㎑. This channel has been used for the last 3 attacks in a row.

Activity is normal for a missile strike and remains unchanged. The masker is continuing its work. Departures from Olenya Airbase are expected in under an hour.

MiG-31K flights are expected today, with possible Kinzhal launches.

There's a good chance today will set a new record for Geran-2 drone launches. More launches are being carried out, possibly exceeding 500.

Explosion in Kharkiv. A Russian KAB glide-bomb just impacted the city.

3 Kalibr carriers have been deployed to the waters of the Black Sea. Total possible salvo of up to 24 Kalibr cruise missiles.

The majority of the Geran-2 drones are flying to the western regions of Ukraine. Primarily Zhytomyr, Khmelnytskyi and Ternopil Oblasts. This will probably be where the Kalibrs fly.

There are currently ~130 Geran-2 drones in Ukrainian airspace. More are flying in.

Tu-95MS departures from Olenya Airbase in Murmansk Oblast are expected soon.

Activity on the combat channels of Tu-95/22M3s at Engels-2 Airbase in Saratov Oblast has been recorded.

Several Tu-22M3 strategic bombers departed from Engels-2 Airbase in Saratov Oblast.

As of the most recent information, 6 Tu-22M3s were stationed at Engels-2. At least 3 are known to have taken off.

CORRECTION: No Tu-22M3s are confirmed to have taken off. They may be airborne, but its unclear at the moment.

It turns out that they were confused with Su-34/35s who had taken off to shoot down Ukrainian UAVs over Saratov Oblast. No bombers are airborne.