Remember, there is still 1 "Varshavyanka" Submarine at sea, just outside Novorossiysk Bay. It can launch a total of 6 Kalibr cruise missiles.

Reports of an "Admiral Makarov" Frigate and a second submarine exiting Novorossiysk Naval Base are false, however they can still launch up to 14 additional Kalibrs from within the naval base.

3 Tu-160s and 5 Tu-95MS from Ukrainka and Belaya Airbases in the far east are 2-2.5 hours away from the first set of launch lines over the village of Uzmore, Saratov Oblast.

The 5 Tu-95MS and 3 Tu-160s are about 1 hour, 40 minutes from their launch lines in Engels District, Saratov Oblast.

Remember, there are another 4 Tu-95MS circling in Saratov Oblast right now, waiting for the bombers from the far east. They are the ones which took off from Engels-2 Airbase.

Its likely that at least a significant portion of the Kh-101s will indeed target the western regions of Ukraine.

Currently, there are only ~45 Geran-2 drones detected in Ukrainian airspace.

However, a lot more will begin flying in shortly, to take part in strikes with the Kh-101 missiles.

The number of Gerans detected in Ukrainian airspace has increased to ~60.

The 5 Tu-95MS and 3 Tu-160s are expected to reach the launch lines in less than an hour.

Multiple Geran-2 drones struck the Ladyzhyn Thermal Power Plant in Vinnytsia Oblast.

The first large groups of Geran-2 drones are entering the western regions of Ukraine. This will be the primary focus for Kh-101 missiles, which will strike energy infrastructure there.

An unknown number of Tu-95MS carried out launch maneuvers in Engels District, Saratov Oblast

So far, only the 4 Tu-95MS from Engels-2 Airbase are confirmed to carried out launch maneuvers.

One "Admiral Makarov" Frigate has been deployed to the waters of the Black Sea.

Total possible salvo: 8 Kalibr cruise missiles.

~10 Kalibr cruise missiles were launched from 1 "Varshavyanka" Submarine and 1 "Admiral Makarov" Frigate off the coast of Cape Myskhako, Krasnodar Krai.

The first Kh-101 cruise missiles are expected to enter Ukrainian airspace in 40-60 minutes.

Its likely that additional strategic bombers have carried out launch maneuvers.

Kalibrs are expected to enter Ukrainian airspace in the next 30-40 minutes.

The number of Geran-2 drones in Ukrainian airspace remains somewhat low (50+).

They are clearly not launching all their drones that have been accumulated. I personally believe a lot are being reserved for a future attack without strategic bombers in the coming days.

The 9 Tu-95MS strategic bombers have likely launched their Kh-101s one after another, forming a "chain" of missiles.

Unidentified missile in Sumy Oblast