The Sudanese armed forces are reportedly redeploying forces to the city of Sennar following the RSF seizure of the Jebel Moya area West of the city. The fears of an imminent RSF offensive of Sennar itself have now become real.

It appears that the RSF is attempting an encirclement of Sennar against the Blue Nile rather than a head on assault on the city. Following the capture of the hills around Jebel Moya, the RSF reportedly held their positions, repelling an SAF counterattack. Sudan War Monitor adjusted their report that it was a limited raid and instead believes that this is a sustained assault on the area.

This is because Geolocated footage indicates that the RSF is bringing heavy artillery into the Jebel Moya area. Civilians are also reportedly fleeing Sennar en masse indicating a lack of confidence in the SAF defences.

It is also possible that the RSF will assault Sennar from the north as there is heavy fighting ongoing near the Sennar Sugar factory. If that stronghold falls then the countryside to the south around the Old Sennar township will likely fall, collapsing a large buffer-zone around Sennar itself.

However in my opinion, an encirclement via attacks to the southeast is the most likely choice that the RSF will make as it avoids costly frontal assaults and will force the SAF to withdraw across the Blue Nile.

There is currently only one safe road into Sennar, that being the Sinjah-Sennar highway as the Rabak-Sennar highway is under fire control of the RSF. If the RSF cuts the Sinjah-Sennar highway, it will prevent re-suppliment into Sennar and will force the SAF to either withdraw from the city, or attempt risky river crossings.

Missiles in the direction of Belgorod.

Ballistic missiles were reportedly launched from Crimea. Waiting on confirmation.

Meanwhile air raid alerts were declared for a number of regions.

They were HIMARS and were reportedly shot down.

MiG-31K airborne. Air raid alerts for all regions of Ukraine.

A Kinzhal Hypersonic missile was launched.

It's unknown where it was launched to, but it could be at Starokostyantyniv as there are drones targeting the city.

Yep, I was right. Kinzhal in the direction of Starokostyantyniv.

Explosions in Kyiv Oblast. Possibly air defence.

Explosions in Khmelnytskyi oblast.

Explosion in Poltava

Ballistic missile in the direction of Odesa.

Meanwhile in Myanmar, the civil war continues to rage. The rebel "TNLA" group today launched a surprise offensive in the northern Shan state of Myanmar. They successfully captured the town of Kyaukme and have seized the hills overlooking the ruby-rich town of Mogok which is said to be one of the main targets of the offensive.

I am currently working on a control map of Myanmar which should hopefully be ready in the coming weeks.

Additionally, in today's statement by the TNLA, they reported that following a series of attacks on the Junta held base in the town of Nuanghkio, they were able to seize the entirety of the settlement

Geolocated footage indicates that Russian forces continued to advance in the Kupyansk direction and seized control over a series of Ukrainian positions.

Building on their initial success, Russian forces advanced to the next treeline in the low-lying ground, capturing Ukrainian positions. From there, Russian infantry on foot along with an APC advanced from their new positions and captured a strong Ukrainian trench fortification just next to the treeline that runs from north to south (southernmost arrow).

Russian infantry managed to capture the trenches, however suffered losses from drone-dropped explosives.

The maximum advance of Russian forces was ~1.59km.

These advances are currently unconfirmed, but if true it would likely mean two things:

1. Following Russia's expensive offensive on Terny to capture the eastern bank of the Zherebets river grinding to a halt, Ukraine took advantage of the lack of activity here and Russian re-deployments to other sectors of the frontline to build on their initial success in counterattacking. They decided to continue to assault Russian positions which - according to Ukrainian sources - lack manpower.

2. Ukrainian forces likely didn't send manpower from this sector of the frontline to Terny, further indicating that the main re-deployments occurred in other sectors (likely the Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar directions).

Reports indicate that the TNLA during their continued offensive in the Mandalay region of Myanmar have entered the key city of Mogok. Heavy fighting is ongoing for the western part of the city, while the TNLA were able to seize control over the nearby hills.

The primary goal of the TNLA is likely to reach the intersection of the two highways in the western part of Mogok in order to complicate logistics for Junta forces. They may also try to encircle the city by seizing the surrounding hills, a tactic which has been employed many times in the past due to the consistent training in the remote rainforests. The KNLA is likely more accustomed to fighting in the hills and forests rather than taking part in costly urban combat which not only poses a risk to the local infrastructure but also to the civilians still living there. Surrounding and besieging the city would force the Junta soldiers which are reportedly suffering from morale issues to surrender.