#BREAKING Assad regime forces completely withdrew from Aleppo al-Jeddah (New Aleppo) neighborhood in western Aleppo.

Unconfirmed but big if true

Probability of a Russian missile attack on Ukraine involving Tu-95/Tu-160 bombers:

For the next 24 hours, I estimate that there is a 15% chance of this occurring.

There has been no activity noted by Ukrainian monitor channels of preparations for Russian attacks.

Over the past 24 hours, there were three main actions by Russia that were noted

- Training of several Tu-95s and Tu-160s from Engels-2 airbase

- Redeployment of 2 Tu-95s from Olenya airbase Engels-2 airbas

- Training of 1 Tu-95 from Olenya airbase.

There are also still 3 Kalibr missile-carriers in the Black
Sea with a total possible salvo of up to 16 Kalibr cruise missiles.

Disclaimer: the percentage estimate is very approximate, and based off previous patterns that I and others have observed. Do not use this as an early warning system.

RIP Aleppo

— 🇸🇾 NEW: A pro-Assad civilian has now entered the Aleppo Citadel, filming a video, saying that there is nothing out of the ordinary and 'those who entered are liars', and that there is no HTS presence there

I honestly have no clue what is going on anymore, and in any case, this is an important strategic location that should be swarming with SAA soldiers by now.

Even if we assume the 'HTS members' we saw here before were actually some sleeper cells, they should have never been able to simply enter this place and film a video.

@Middle_East_Spectator

“Trump wants a ceasefire and hostage deal in Gaza before his inauguration” - Axios

Several Syrian airstrikes are reported on Aleppo.

This map is circulating as the current situation on the ground in Aleppo. I can’t say how accurate this is right now.

The Aleppo international airport has been closed, with all flights in and out of the city cancelled.

Additionally, more airstrikes were carried out on the New Aleppo district in the western part of the city a few minutes ago.

A new report states that the SAA is making a final stand in the north of Aleppo.

HTS has captured the Aleppo citadel in the city centre.

I've added the situation in northwestern Syria to my Middle East map. It will be updated multiple times per day.

You can view it in detail here: https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/1/edit?hl=en&mid=117K6_EiFdWYEK7LQKHjRSsjsHK7xVN8&ll=36.17809721911047%2C37.13198080872916&z=12

You can always access this map, and my Ukraine map in my pinned post on Twitter.

It's very approximate. Not everything has been added, such as mixed presences.

A Russian airstrike reportedly targeted the Furqan hospital in western Aleppo.

HTS fighters are calmly walking around the Citadel in central Aleppo.

Two Israeli airstrikes targeted Al-Qusayr, Syria near the border with Lebanon just now.