Following the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, Netanyahu plans to hold an Operational Assessment with Senior Military Leaders at noon (in 50 mins time).

A few hours ago, Ukraine struck a warehouse for storing weapons and military equipment near Kursk with UAVs.

And as expected, Russian forces re-activated this part of the frontline and partially closed the Urozhaine salient.

Geolocated footage shows that Russian forces advanced by ~1.06km and captured positions just below the tactical heights. The goal is likely to flatten out the frontline in order to support future attacks on Blahodatne and Makarivka.

The Supreme-Leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei stated that “It is our Duty to take Revenge and Severely Punish the Zionist Entity for the Assassination in Iran, because the Assassination was carried out on our Soil.”

The question is, is he just bluffing and will downplay the attack, or will Iran conduct a major response.

A reliable source reported that Russian forces broke through Ukrainian positions in Niu-York and advanced by ~2.1km in a northerly direction.

Here they reportedly crossed a tributary of the Kryvyi Torets River and cut off the eastern-most part of the town from the central part.

This means that if this advance is true, and if the Ukrainians haven't already withdrawn from the salient to the south, the Russians have operationally encircled them due to the reservoir being in the way of withdrawals.

Depending on the number of Ukrainian troops defending the pocket, this may be a major development in the fighting in the Niu-York area.

If the Russians have indeed advanced in Niu-York and captured Zalizne, then they have essentially encircled the Ukrainians in the 2015 fortifications. There are mainly just swampy fields to withdraw through. We might be about to see a very chaotic withdrawal...

MiG-31K airborne. The MiG-31K can carry the Kinzhal Hypersonic missile.

The MiG is just performing training.

⚡️ Urgent: The municipality of Rishon Lezion near Tel Aviv announces the cancellation of all mass gatherings in the city today.

So true...

https://t.co/BHxiVOKg2d
If this is true, then we might be facing a wider middle eastern war.

If Iran and its proxies do retaliate, then it will be up to Israel how to respond back.

Last time when Israel didn’t respond to their people’s liking, Netanyahu lost a lot of support from the far right. He dropped significantly in the polls to around 20%. His main base of supporters were the centrists and the centre-rights.

If Israel doesn’t have a significant response then Netanyahu will risk losing his remaining far right supporters, which makes me inclined to believe that Netanyahu will do an over-the-top response.

Keep in mind, this all depends on whether Iran responds and if they do, how significant this response is. They might just use their proxies to attack Israel, or they might use their proxies and their own missiles and drones. It’s impossible to know, so let’s wait and see.

Israel has sent messages through diplomatic channels to Lebanon and Iran where Israel says they are ready to go to the point of all-out war if Hezbollah and Iran respond in a way that will severely damage Israel. Israel is preparing for various scenarios, including the possibility of Hezbollah attempting to breach the northern border in response to the assassination.

-Israel's Channel 12

"In the next 72 hours, Iran, Yemen, Hezbollah, pro-Iranian groups in Iraq and Syria will launch a large-scale attack on Israel."

- The Pentagon

Regarding the situation with the first F-16s being sent to Ukraine:

Yesterday, footage and photos surfaced from Lviv showing F-16s flying over the region. The videos and photos are very clear, and it is obvious that they are indeed F-16s.

Shortly after this, an article from The Times came out stating that Ukraine has received 6 F-16s from The Netherlands, making The Netherlands the first country to send Ukraine the aircraft. The Telegraph also reported that they have information that Ukraine has already conducted combat missions with the F-16s, but so far there has been no proof of this, and I personally doubt it. It's too soon, and the infrastructure for the aircraft likely isn't ready considering Russia's Kh-101 and Kinzhal missile strikes (which I will talk about briefly further down this post).

These F-16s that flew over Lviv Oblast, likely took off from an airbase in Romania or Poland, as I doubt Ukraine has made the final decision on which airfield will accommodate them.

A Zelensky-critical Ukrainian telegram channel responded to these videos and photos, stating that “Those who give orders to demonstratively fly them during the day over Ukraine are like fucking clowns who want to relieve social tension in this way. The boys in the trenches are waiting for results, not a show for civilians.”

While this one report doesn't indicate widespread discontent among the Ukrainian population, it does show that these underlying issues have not gone unnoticed, at least for some people, especially the more realistic ones.

Additionally - from what I've heard - Ukraine doesn’t have the pilots necessary to fly the 65 promised aircraft, with only 12 pilots reportedly being available. Ukrainian officials stated that Ukraine needs at least 128 F-16s to match the Russian air force in the skies, so I simply can't see how Ukraine's western "allies" will train this many pilots and possibly co-pilots. It is unknown whether Ukraine will be/has received two-seater F-16s, but if a large amount of them are two-seaters, then training of the pilots and co-pilots will take much longer.

Back in May 2023, the US Congress stated that it will take around 18 months to train Ukrainian pilots. Considering it is almost certain that Ukraine doesn't have 65+ pilots trained to fly the aircraft, the F-16s might be nearly useless in 1.5-2 years' time. The time it takes for new pilots to be trained will also depend on when training is started. This could take as long as 6 months, or even longer.

By that time, Ukraine might have entered negotiations, and the front probably would have collapsed westwards in the direction of the Dnipro River considering Ukraine's current critical manpower shortages.

And finally, there is also the obvious issue of Russian missile and drone strikes. Russia will most definitely target the airfields that accommodate the F-16s, and considering Ukraine's depleted air defence coverage, if Ukraine has them stationed in the country, they will likely lose a lot of them.

Overall, I doubt the deliveries of F-16s to Ukraine will have a significant effect on the frontline. They have been overly hyped-up by western and Ukrainian media, and their likely lack of successes will disappoint many other Pro-Ukrainians.

Even if they do have a somewhat significant effect on the frontline situation, they won't be a gamechanger, and Russia will continue pushing westwards in an attritional manner until something breaks among the Ukrainian military, which might be in the form of running out of defences, running out of weapons, or even just running out of manpower in a certain sector of the front line...

The situation in Lashio, Myanmar according to @TheBorysk's (on twitter) interpretation from geolocations.

Heavy battles continue to rage in the city, despite reduced Junta resistance.

Green = Rebel control
Red = Junta control
Blue = UWSA control

Israel's Channel 12 reports that dozens of jets and several warships are being prepared and mobilized for possible offensive and defensive operations and sorties.

An Israeli airstrike on southern Lebanon reportedly killed 5 people, including women and children.