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Blackrock's $IBIT catches up to Grayscale's $GBTC in AUM
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Forwarded from 21st Capital (Snz)
Bitcoin has become less volatile over time
The chart shows the standard deviation of daily percentage changes in Bitcoin's price computed on a rolling 365-basis.
Bitcoin's growth is getting more predictable and stable over time.
The chart shows the standard deviation of daily percentage changes in Bitcoin's price computed on a rolling 365-basis.
Bitcoin's growth is getting more predictable and stable over time.
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Forwarded from 21st Capital (Snz)
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Blackrock's $IBIT becomes the fastest ETF to reach $20B
At Bitcoin News Research, we analyze Bitcoin ETFs, institutional investors, the futures market, on-chain data, and more. Find our reports at: https://bitcoinnewsresearch.beehiiv.com
At Bitcoin News Research, we analyze Bitcoin ETFs, institutional investors, the futures market, on-chain data, and more. Find our reports at: https://bitcoinnewsresearch.beehiiv.com
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Twitter Spaces
We are going deep on the Power Law as we break down the latest edition of Bitcoin News Research 🔬
Today at 3:00 PM Eastern Time (in less than an hour)
Join @Sina_21st, @dotkrueger, @hcburger1 and more for a mathematical discussion on the growth of #Bitcoin
Set reminders 👇
https://x.com/BitcoinNewsCom/status/1799142116750147982
Subscribe to our research newsletter 👇
https://bitcoinnewsresearch.beehiiv.com
We are going deep on the Power Law as we break down the latest edition of Bitcoin News Research 🔬
Today at 3:00 PM Eastern Time (in less than an hour)
Join @Sina_21st, @dotkrueger, @hcburger1 and more for a mathematical discussion on the growth of #Bitcoin
Set reminders 👇
https://x.com/BitcoinNewsCom/status/1799142116750147982
Subscribe to our research newsletter 👇
https://bitcoinnewsresearch.beehiiv.com
X (formerly Twitter)
Bitcoin News (@BitcoinNewsCom) on X
We are going deep on the Power Law as we break down the latest edition of Bitcoin News Research 🔬
Join @Sina_21st, @dotkrueger, @hcburger1 and more for a mathematical discussion on the growth of #Bitcoin
Set reminders and subscribe below👇
https://t.co/zXEJ0KCVS9
Join @Sina_21st, @dotkrueger, @hcburger1 and more for a mathematical discussion on the growth of #Bitcoin
Set reminders and subscribe below👇
https://t.co/zXEJ0KCVS9
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Forwarded from 21st Capital (Snz)
21st Capital
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Introducing Volatility-Adjusted Power Law Index
An actionable metric for judging over/undervaluation of Bitcoin.
The metric is derived from the Power Law model and is adjusted for volatility to correct for changes in Bitcoin's market structure over time.
1/ High Accuracy
It correctly identifies the bottoms and tops of all prior cycles.
2/ Stable Range Over Time
A problem with many of the existing indicators and oscillators is that their meaning and ranges change over time. Take MVRV (one of the current bests) for example. It went as high as 7 in cycle 1 but went only up to 3.95 in the cycle 4. This makes judgement for the next cycle very challenging.
However, VPLI's oscillation range remains stable over all four past cycles because it is adjusted by market structure in each period.
3/ Regions of Overvaluation and Undervaluation
- Deep Value (<-10): 10% of time
- Value (-10, -5): 25%
- Cool (-5, 0): 25%
- Warm (0, 5): 20%
- Hot (5, 10): 15%
- Extreme Bubble (>10): 5%
* The percentages indicate the % of time the index spends in each region
The article detailing this metric and its methodology will be published in the next edition of the Bitcoin News Research newsletter. Subscribe using this link!
If you liked our content, please share your thoughts. Same article on twitter.
Bitcoin News Research is a collaboration between @BitcoinNewsCom and @21st_capital
An actionable metric for judging over/undervaluation of Bitcoin.
The metric is derived from the Power Law model and is adjusted for volatility to correct for changes in Bitcoin's market structure over time.
1/ High Accuracy
It correctly identifies the bottoms and tops of all prior cycles.
2/ Stable Range Over Time
A problem with many of the existing indicators and oscillators is that their meaning and ranges change over time. Take MVRV (one of the current bests) for example. It went as high as 7 in cycle 1 but went only up to 3.95 in the cycle 4. This makes judgement for the next cycle very challenging.
However, VPLI's oscillation range remains stable over all four past cycles because it is adjusted by market structure in each period.
3/ Regions of Overvaluation and Undervaluation
- Deep Value (<-10): 10% of time
- Value (-10, -5): 25%
- Cool (-5, 0): 25%
- Warm (0, 5): 20%
- Hot (5, 10): 15%
- Extreme Bubble (>10): 5%
* The percentages indicate the % of time the index spends in each region
The article detailing this metric and its methodology will be published in the next edition of the Bitcoin News Research newsletter. Subscribe using this link!
If you liked our content, please share your thoughts. Same article on twitter.
Bitcoin News Research is a collaboration between @BitcoinNewsCom and @21st_capital
Forwarded from 21st Capital (Snz)
Recorded Spaces
@Sina_21st @Nebraskangooner, @SimonDixonTwitt, and @JSeyff talk Bitcoin investment strategy.
https://x.com/wolf_webthree/status/1800603950904967354?s=46
@Sina_21st @Nebraskangooner, @SimonDixonTwitt, and @JSeyff talk Bitcoin investment strategy.
https://x.com/wolf_webthree/status/1800603950904967354?s=46
❤1
Forwarded from 21st Capital (Snz)
X (formerly Twitter)
Bitcoin News Research (@BN_Research) on X
Join us for our first Space to investigate our latest model: The Volatility Adjusted Power Law
The conversation will feature @Sina_21st, @Giovann35084111 and @CryptoVizArt
Set reminders below.
https://t.co/TLVgvdVyoz
The conversation will feature @Sina_21st, @Giovann35084111 and @CryptoVizArt
Set reminders below.
https://t.co/TLVgvdVyoz
Forwarded from 21st Capital (Snz)
X (formerly Twitter)
Sina 🗝️⚡ 21st Capital (@Sina_21st) on X
A thread on the status of the #Bitcoin market
1/ Bitcoin has fallen -26% since the 73K top in March and -24% since June.
For perspective, this is on the lower end of spectrum when it comes to Bitcoin bull market corrections.
2/ THE ETFS: The run-up from…
1/ Bitcoin has fallen -26% since the 73K top in March and -24% since June.
For perspective, this is on the lower end of spectrum when it comes to Bitcoin bull market corrections.
2/ THE ETFS: The run-up from…
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Volatility-adjusted power law index (VPLI) is a powerful tool to model Bitcoin.
By determining Bitcoin's bubbles and lows, VPLI helps you optimize your Bitcoin DCA or investment strategy.
In this short video, Sina explains the origins of and evolution of the VPLI model.
00:00 - Introduction
01:05 - The problem with existing Bitcoin price models
03:06 - The Power Law Model (Origin)
04:32 - The Power Law oscillator
05:54 - Attempts to normalize the Power Law Index
07:52 - The correct way to normalize the Power Law Index
10:56 - The Volatility-Adjusted Power Law Index
11:56 - Caveats
14:15 - Media mentions
14:47 - Where to follow Sina and 21stCapital
https://youtu.be/z3vfteUjnHs
By determining Bitcoin's bubbles and lows, VPLI helps you optimize your Bitcoin DCA or investment strategy.
In this short video, Sina explains the origins of and evolution of the VPLI model.
00:00 - Introduction
01:05 - The problem with existing Bitcoin price models
03:06 - The Power Law Model (Origin)
04:32 - The Power Law oscillator
05:54 - Attempts to normalize the Power Law Index
07:52 - The correct way to normalize the Power Law Index
10:56 - The Volatility-Adjusted Power Law Index
11:56 - Caveats
14:15 - Media mentions
14:47 - Where to follow Sina and 21stCapital
https://youtu.be/z3vfteUjnHs
YouTube
Bitcoin Price Prediction - Volatility Adjusted Power Law Index
Volatility-adjusted power law index (VPLI) is a powerful tool to very accurately predict the Bitcoin price.
By determining Bitcoin's bubbles and lows, VPLI helps you optimize your Bitcoin DCA or investment strategy.
In this short video, Sina explains the…
By determining Bitcoin's bubbles and lows, VPLI helps you optimize your Bitcoin DCA or investment strategy.
In this short video, Sina explains the…
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Forwarded from 21st Capital (Snz)
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Trump: "On day one, I will fire Gary Gensler."
The crowd goes ecstatic.
The crowd goes ecstatic.
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Forwarded from 21st Capital (Snz)
Bitcoin Insights #2 📣
The U.S. is on an unsustainable fiscal path that will end in the destruction of the currency, rampant inflation, and increased risk of bankruptcy.
In this video, I take a look at the federal budget, its components, and the projected future path.
https://youtu.be/ss-U7rE3Dac
The U.S. is on an unsustainable fiscal path that will end in the destruction of the currency, rampant inflation, and increased risk of bankruptcy.
In this video, I take a look at the federal budget, its components, and the projected future path.
https://youtu.be/ss-U7rE3Dac
YouTube
This will destroy the US dollar!
The U.S. is on an unsustainable fiscal path that will end in the destruction of the currency, rampant inflation, and increased risk of bankruptcy.
In this video, I take a look at the federal budget, its components, and the projected future path.
------…
In this video, I take a look at the federal budget, its components, and the projected future path.
------…
Forwarded from 21st Capital (Snz)
🚨 Market turmoil got you concerned?
Check out this article by our COO Sina who breaks down why the markets are crashing – recession fears, major trades blowing up, and geopolitical tensions.
https://21stcapital.com/three-reasons-why-the-markets-are-crashing/
Check out this article by our COO Sina who breaks down why the markets are crashing – recession fears, major trades blowing up, and geopolitical tensions.
https://21stcapital.com/three-reasons-why-the-markets-are-crashing/
21st Capital
Three Reasons Why the Markets Are Crashing - 21st Capital
This week, the markets have been on a wild ride, with sharp swings across all asset classes. After showing strength following the Fed meeting, the S&P 500 took a dive by Thursday and Friday. The Nasdaq 100 also plunged into correction territory, leaving many…
Forwarded from 21st Capital (Snz)
Futures capitulation is beginning!!!
Long capitulating and the bias of the market is turning bearish.
Long capitulating and the bias of the market is turning bearish.
Forwarded from 21st Capital (Snz)
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Why are the markets crashing?
The S&P & Dow had their worst day since 2022, and investors are panic selling due to a confluence of three deadly forces crushing hopes for a soft landing.
In this 12-min video, I explain these factors & how I think they will play out.
https://x.com/Sina_21st/status/1820623837404311683
The S&P & Dow had their worst day since 2022, and investors are panic selling due to a confluence of three deadly forces crushing hopes for a soft landing.
In this 12-min video, I explain these factors & how I think they will play out.
https://x.com/Sina_21st/status/1820623837404311683