Blackrock's $IBIT becomes the fastest ETF to reach $20B

At Bitcoin News Research, we analyze Bitcoin ETFs, institutional investors, the futures market, on-chain data, and more. Find our reports at: https://bitcoinnewsresearch.beehiiv.com

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We are going deep on the Power Law as we break down the latest edition of Bitcoin News Research 🔬

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Join @Sina_21st, @dotkrueger, @hcburger1 and more for a mathematical discussion on the growth of #Bitcoin

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Introducing Volatility-Adjusted Power Law Index

An actionable metric for judging over/undervaluation of Bitcoin.

The metric is derived from the Power Law model and is adjusted for volatility to correct for changes in Bitcoin's market structure over time.


1/ High Accuracy
It correctly identifies the bottoms and tops of all prior cycles.

2/ Stable Range Over Time
A problem with many of the existing indicators and oscillators is that their meaning and ranges change over time. Take MVRV (one of the current bests) for example. It went as high as 7 in cycle 1 but went only up to 3.95 in the cycle 4. This makes judgement for the next cycle very challenging.

However, VPLI's oscillation range remains stable over all four past cycles because it is adjusted by market structure in each period.


3/ Regions of Overvaluation and Undervaluation
- Deep Value (<-10): 10% of time
- Value (-10, -5): 25%
- Cool (-5, 0): 25%
- Warm (0, 5): 20%
- Hot (5, 10): 15%
- Extreme Bubble (>10): 5%

* The percentages indicate the % of time the index spends in each region


The article detailing this metric and its methodology will be published in the next edition of the Bitcoin News Research newsletter. Subscribe using this link!

If you liked our content, please share your thoughts. Same article on twitter.

Bitcoin News Research is a collaboration between @BitcoinNewsCom and @21st_capital

Recorded Spaces

@Sina_21st @Nebraskangooner, @SimonDixonTwitt, and @JSeyff talk Bitcoin investment strategy.

https://x.com/wolf_webthree/status/1800603950904967354?s=46

Bitcoin is going to be the common language of us all!

@bitguide_io
🌳https://linktr.ee/bitguide

ETFs continued to buy the dip

https://x.com/sina_21st/status/1810523096383664204?s=46&t=6I9aEqV-RwcladB-FBo9kg

Volatility-adjusted power law index (VPLI) is a powerful tool to model Bitcoin.

By determining Bitcoin's bubbles and lows, VPLI helps you optimize your Bitcoin DCA or investment strategy.

In this short video, Sina explains the origins of and evolution of the VPLI model.

00:00 - Introduction
01:05 - The problem with existing Bitcoin price models
03:06 - The Power Law Model (Origin)
04:32 - The Power Law oscillator
05:54 - Attempts to normalize the Power Law Index
07:52 - The correct way to normalize the Power Law Index
10:56 - The Volatility-Adjusted Power Law Index
11:56 - Caveats
14:15 - Media mentions
14:47 - Where to follow Sina and 21stCapital


https://youtu.be/z3vfteUjnHs

Trump: "On day one, I will fire Gary Gensler."
The crowd goes ecstatic.

Bitcoin Insights #2 📣

The U.S. is on an unsustainable fiscal path that will end in the destruction of the currency, rampant inflation, and increased risk of bankruptcy.

In this video, I take a look at the federal budget, its components, and the projected future path.

https://youtu.be/ss-U7rE3Dac

Heavy sell pressure on the bitcoin ETFs today

🚨 Market turmoil got you concerned?

Check out this article by our COO Sina who breaks down why the markets are crashing – recession fears, major trades blowing up, and geopolitical tensions.

https://21stcapital.com/three-reasons-why-the-markets-are-crashing/

Futures capitulation is beginning!!!

Long capitulating and the bias of the market is turning bearish.

Why are the markets crashing?

The S&P & Dow had their worst day since 2022, and investors are panic selling due to a confluence of three deadly forces crushing hopes for a soft landing.

In this 12-min video, I explain these factors & how I think they will play out.

https://x.com/Sina_21st/status/1820623837404311683

The job market is teetering on the edge of a cliff.

We have had three months of back-to-back declines in job creation, which, if continued, could trigger a recession.

#Clip

Now available on Youtube. Please, subscribe to our YT channel if you find value in our videos.

https://youtu.be/zkw5K_KDVYQ