First of all, congratulations to all those who have been respectful and are profiting during this move. Recognition to those who have earned it.

Secondly, for those who followed some of my altcoin analyses (even though they are not financial advice) that went wrong, apologies for any inconvenience I may have caused. I'm out of my shorts that were in a loss (AAVE, SOL, CRO and TRX). Keeping the ones in profit (BNB, MATIC and WAVES) open until more information is available.

Thirdly, I always try my best in order to offer the best possible analysis, not asking anything in return. Sometimes we get it right, sometimes we don't. Once we make the analysis the result is out of our control. Best we can do is to learn and try better next time.

This breakout is not good for the main bearish scenario. I didn't expect the 31k resistance level to break that easily. After checking the market with a cool mind, price never broke 25k which was the main confirmation. Now we are in a situation where price has to get back below 30k in order to confirm a deviation above that resistance, which would mean this has been a fakeout caused by ETF euphoria + USDT and TUSD mints. However, until this happens, it's no man's land. It could actually go higher, but also it could deviate back below, restest the broken resistance as support...

So for now, taking a loss in some short positions and keeping the profitable ones. Then wait and see. The bearish scenario is not fully invalidated but it's less probable until price gets back below 30k. That would put the bearish scenario back in play.

Thank you for the support and stay safe.

BTC

Keeping it simple.

Clean breakout of the 29k-31k resistance zone. After that breakout, it's being rejected from the next resistance level (35k). If it dumps from here, the next reaction is going to be key.

Two options:

-It retests the broken level as support and keeps going higher.

-It goes back below it, confirming a fakeout/deviation.

DXY keeps looking bullish and the SPX bearish. Most altcoins, despite having bounced, haven't broken any key resistances yet or changed the trend from bearish to bullish.

Not taking any new positions here. Just watching.

I will update the BNB, MATIC and WAVES charts later.

MATIC

Zooming out, we can see also a very clear range. It's below mid range and forming a lower high of a bearish trend, against a resistance zone. Clean invalidation reclaiming the $0.70-0.75 zone and using it as support.

First target remains the range low at $0.29-0.30

WAVES

Compared to the previous analysis (check the post I'm replying to), it's ranging between the same levels, so it's literally the same.

Bearish acceleration below $1.25 and minimum target below 2016's low.

Social networks are causing our focus of attention to shrink more and more each day. Also, some people like to take everything out of context to gain attention and easy engagement. That’s why it's important to always check the original source and not just stay with the headlines, but to understand the entire context.

I'm not capitulating, just reducing the risk by closing some short positions until the bearish scenario becomes likely again. If the PA above the key level gives bullish signs, I will reevaluate. The overall positioning is still bearish as explained yesterday.

BNB

In addition to those charts, we can see how the bounce from the low is clearly a dead cat bounce:

-Decreasing OI with increasing price
-Funding mostly positive
-Buying walls pulled when the move is over
-Corrective structure

This move is similar to all the previous bounces that formed lower highs and then made a new low. The bearish trend is strong and should continue soon.

BTC - Monthly

Zooming out more, we can see how BTC is hitting monthly resistance.

The other day's move does not change the nature of the entire rally from the lows. A bear market rally caused mostly by liquidity gaps + manipulation. There is no doubt that it's going higher than expected and taking very long, but the main idea remains basically the same. The key is to be sure of what you do and have patience.

I try to apply common sense and not get carried away by sentiments and meaningless news or narratives. The reality is that macro looks bad. A recession is around the corner, sadly we have two major active wars, and for cryptos specifically, more regulations are coming that would have a negative impact at first (due to the push of the CBDCs agenda) and it’s very likely that Binance will have more problems that could shake the market strongly and especially BNB, which is why it remains my largest short position.

Stocks look weak. The rise they have had this year has been losing strength and it’s beginning to turn around, confirming the bear market rally. This is reflected very well in the SPX. Also the dollar is showing a lot of strength.

With this said, BTC has to reverse the bullish trend it has formed from the lows. A good first step would be to get below 31k to confirm the deviation, and ideally below 30k which also acts as a psychological level.

Let's see what happens these next few days.

BTC

Bearish divergences have been formed on most timeframes. Ltf looks like a distribution pattern, but once again, we need confirmations. First one would be a clean break below $33,500. That would take the price to 30k-31k at least. There we would have to see the price reaction in order to know if the entire move up from 30k to 35k is a deviation (fakeout) or a real breakout.

Have a good weekend everyone!

Much more confirmations are needed, but there's a good chance that the local top is in.

You can call me crazy, permabear, stubborn or whatever, but in my opinion the bearish scenario is still likely. Every single day I check the hundreds of charts for hours and hours and see the exact same thing.

Sentiment right now is extremely bullish. Fundings, F&G index and other indicators confirm this, but you can just check Twitter or any TG channel and you will notice the same. This sentiment and and the PA don't correspond to the current macro state (forming a divergence) and most charts look over extended and with declining volume. They are prolonging this run as much as possible, but the longer the artificial run...

Stay safe.

It's important to know how to close losing positions in time to avoid further losses. The shorts I closed 2-3 weeks ago (AAVE, SOL, CRO and TRX) are going up much more and the losses would be much worse now.

Overall I think BTC is forming a local top. Some altcoins could run more in the meantime, but everything is very over extended as explained in the previous post.

Not opening any new positions yet until clear confirmations.

BNB update

Bounced from the range low once again. It has a strong resistance level right above. Interaction with this level is going to be important for the short-term:

-A clean rejection from that level + break of the current mid tf bullish trend = good for bearish continuation. A clean close below $220 would be a good bearish confirmation.

-S/R flip of that level would be a short-term invalidation of the main bearish scenario for BNB and I would cut my short with profits to re-enter later, doesn't matter if higher or lower (avg. entry is still $301)

The entire range keeps looking as a massive distribution range of almost over 1000 days already, with lots of reasons to think that it will eventually break down.